21. 30个商业案例点评 30 Business Case Reviews

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11. 百货行业

11. Retail Industry

01. 网友：全国百货行业中第一个“1000亿销售额”大公司的股票令我有点搞不懂，现在市值94个亿，自有商业地产保守估值60个亿，净资产收益率百分之八，年末公司账面的现今30多个亿，而且他的购物中心在东北和内蒙古都在最好的地段，也都是人气最旺的购物中心，超市做的也很好，我是内蒙一个连锁超市的一个供应商（做了有七年了对超市百货有一定了解），今年我做的这个超市连锁集团（当地最大的超市百货连锁）也被它收购了，段老师，这样的公司算严重低估的股票吗？

01. Netizen: I'm a bit confused about the stock of the first "100 billion yuan sales" large company in the national retail industry. Its current market value is 9.4 billion yuan, with conservative estimated value of self-owned commercial real estate at 6 billion yuan, a net asset return rate of 8%, and over 3 billion yuan in cash on the company's books at the end of the year. Moreover, its shopping centers are located in the best areas of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and they are also the most popular ones. The supermarkets are performing well as well. I am a supplier for a chain supermarket in Inner Mongolia (I have been in this business for seven years and have some understanding of the supermarket industry). This year, my supermarket chain group (the largest local supermarket chain) was also acquired by this company. Mr. Duan, would you consider this company's stock severely undervalued?

段永平：没人可以根据你提供的这些资料来判断一个公司是不是低估了。不过，百货行业还是远离一点的好，除非真的觉得特别便宜。淘宝这种商业模式最后会让大多数的地面店麻烦的，越大的店越麻烦。（2011－12－17）

Duan Yongping: No one can determine whether a company is undervalued based on the information you provided. However, it's better to stay away from the retail industry unless you really think it's exceptionally cheap. Business models like Taobao will eventually cause trouble for most physical stores, and the larger the store, the more troublesome it becomes. (2011-12-17)

段永平：记得很多年以前，有一次看资料，发现WMT的纯利大概只有5%左右，而Kmart的成本比Wmart大约高5%。我一想，这Kmart早晚要完蛋，只是不知道多久而已。结果3年后Kmart就到了。

Duan Yongping: I remember many years ago, when I was looking at the data, I found that WMT's net profit was only about 5%, while Kmart's costs were about 5% higher than Wmart's. I thought to myself, Kmart is going to be finished sooner or later, just don't know how long it will take. And three years later, Kmart went under.

有人说我是乌鸦嘴，说谁倒谁最后就倒了。其实，没那么邪乎，但确实我说要出大麻烦的公司好像大多数最后都出了。投资里很重要的一点就是要避免大麻烦。巴菲特讲的不想拿10年的企业你就不应该投。

Some people say I'm a jinx, that whoever I mention will ultimately fail. Actually, it's not that mysterious, but indeed, it seems like most of the companies I said would encounter big troubles really did. It's crucial in investments to avoid major troubles. Buffett says if you don't want to hold a company for 10 years, you shouldn't invest in it.

02. 网友：可否谈一下你对零售业的理解，你对当前的连锁业进入电商有什么看法。

02. Netizen: Can you talk about your understanding of the retail industry and your thoughts on chain stores entering e-commerce?

段永平：觉得都是被逼的，最后没几家能活下来。（2012－05－31）

Duan Yongping: I think they are all forced to do so, and in the end, only a few will survive. (2012-05-31)

【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华——3（2012－02－17）

【Quotation]】Highlights from Buffett's 31-year Shareholder Letters - 3 (2012-02-17)

64. 在一个没有管制的商品标准化产业，一家公司不是降低成本增加竞争力，就是被迫倒闭关门。（1994）

64. In an unregulated commodity standardization industry, a company either lowers costs to increase competitiveness or is forced to close its doors. (1994)

65. 零售业的经营相当不易，在我个人的投资生涯中，我看过许多零售业曾经拥有极高的成长率与股东权益报酬率，但是到最后，突然间表现急剧下滑，很多甚至被迫以倒闭关门收场。比起一般制造业或服务业，这种刹那间的永恒在零售业屡见不鲜，部分原因是这些零售业者必须时时保持聪明警戒， 因为你的竞争对手随时准备复制你的做法，然后超越你，同时消费者绝对不会吝于给予新加入业者尝试的机会。零售业一单业绩下滑，注定就会失败。相对于这种必须时时保持警戒的产业，还有一种我称之为只要聪明一时的产业，举个例子来说，如果你在很早以前就懂得睿智地买下一家地方电视台，你甚至可以把它交给懒惰又差劲的亲人来经营，而这项事业却仍然可以好好地经营个几十年，当然若是你懂得将Tom Murphy（汤姆•墨菲）摆在正确的位置之上，你所获得的将会更惊人，但是对零售业来说，要是用人不当的话，就等于买了一张准备倒闭关门的门票。（1995）

65. Retail business is extremely challenging. In my personal investment career, I have seen many retail businesses with high growth rates and return on equity, but in the end, their performance suddenly declines, and many are forced to close down. This sudden and eternal decline is quite common in the retail industry, unlike general manufacturing or service industries. One reason is that these retailers must always stay alert because their competitors are ready to replicate their practices and surpass them, while consumers are always willing to give new entrants a chance. Once the performance of a retail business declines, it is destined to fail. Compared to this industry that requires constant vigilance, there is another type of industry I refer to as the "one-time smart" industry. For example, if you had the foresight to buy a local television station a long time ago, you could even hand it over to lazy and incompetent family members to run, and the business could still thrive for several decades. Of course, if you knew how to position Tom Murphy correctly, the results would be even more astonishing. But for the retail industry, if you don't manage your people properly, it's like buying a ticket to closure. (1995)

12. 新零售

网友：国内现在都在讨论，并且有很多企业都在搞得新零售，您怎么看？

段永平：没太关注过这个名词，你是说像拼多多这种电商吗？目前74%的美国人民买东西的首选已经是亚马逊了（今天网上看到的），所以说新零售确实很恐怖。不过这个行业非常有可能会变得赢家通吃，或者是几个大头垄断，很多企业搞得现象也许持续不了太久。（2019－03－21）

13. Facebook 脸书

13. Facebook

01. 网友：想向您请教最近的热点问题：Facebook和网络隐私保护。

01. Netizen: I would like to ask you about the recent hot topic: Facebook and online privacy protection.

Facebook的商业模式，我个人理解：是在连接人的同时，通过用户数据分析理解了解人，并据此通过广告等形式商业化。

Facebook's business model, as I understand it personally, is to connect people while commercializing through forms such as advertising by understanding and analyzing user data.

我想请教您：如果个人数据的运用权利更多地交给用户选择，那么：给予信息流推送的商业模式是否还可以成立？Facebook（脸书）生意模式是否会收到严重的冲击？

I would like to ask you: If more rights to use personal data are given to users for selection, then can the business model of providing information flow push still stand? Will Facebook's business model be severely impacted?

段永平：个人认为FB还是一样厉害。用户没有别的选择。（2018－05－01）

Duan Yongping: Personally, I think FB is still powerful. Users don't have other choices. (2018-05-01)

02. 网友：您怎么看FB（脸书），高管的不断离职会不会对公司产生致命打击？现价可以买入做长期投资吗？

02. Netizen: How do you view the continuous executive departures from Facebook? Will it have a fatal impact on the company? Is it a good time to buy for long-term investment at the current price?

段永平：我不推荐人买股票，我觉得如果你需要问人你该不该买的时候那就还没到你能买的时候。我个人觉得FB也是家不错的公司，生意模式和文化都不错，扎克伯格年轻有为，还能好好干很多年。公司有人离职很正常。（2019－03－20）

Duan Yongping: I don't recommend people to buy stocks. I feel if you need to ask others whether you should buy, then it's not yet time for you to buy. Personally, I think FB is also a good company, with a good business model and culture. Mark Zuckerberg is young and capable, and can continue to perform well for many years. It's normal for people to leave a company. (2019-03-20)

网友：您投资FB（脸书），应该是大概率觉得它未来5－10年净利润达到500亿美金左右，请问能分享下这其中的逻辑吗？

Netizen: In your investment in FB, you probably expect its net profit to reach around 50 billion USD in the next 5-10 years. Could you share the logic behind this?

段永平：大概就是觉得生意模式很好，企业文化也很好，扎克伯格还那么年轻，所以这个公司还会有不错的成长空间。（2019－03－23）

Duan Yongping: It's mainly because I think the business model is very good, the corporate culture is also good, and Mark Zuckerberg is still young, so this company will have good growth potential. (2019-03-23)

03. 网友：最近看了一些你在雪球的分享，你多次陈述公司本分的重要性。我持有FB（脸书）的股票有一段时间了，获利还算可以，如果不考虑本分的角度应该会继续长期持有。不过FB近几个月频繁爆出隐私泄露的问题（最近几天又爆出明文存储用户账号密码），我在思考FB在本分这个问题上是否有明显的瑕疵，或者怎么理解公司的本分？

03. Netizen: I recently read some of your posts on Snowball, and you have repeatedly emphasized the importance of a company's integrity. I have held FB stocks for a while now, and the profits have been decent. If don't consider the aspect of integrity, I would continue to hold them for the long term. However, FB has frequently been involved in privacy breach issues in recent months (and just in the past few days, it was revealed that they were storing user account passwords in plaintext). I'm contemplating whether FB has significant flaws in terms of integrity, or how to understand the company's integrity?

段永平：FB原来的使命是“连接世界”但没有注意隐私，现在使命不变但注重隐私已经是提前了。好公司犯错误时往往是买入的机会。（2019－03－28）

Duan Yongping: FB's original mission was to "connect the world," but they didn't pay attention to privacy. Now, the mission hasn't changed, but the focus on privacy has been advanced. Good companies often present buying opportunities when they make mistakes. (2019-03-28)

04. 引用：Facebook（脸书）财报解读：走出阴霾，变现有惊喜

04. Quotation: Facebook's financial report interpretation: Emerging from the haze, monetization brings surprises

Facebook（FB. US）是价值投资者口中的好公司，拥有他们梦寐以求的财务报表：堪比小国国库的……

Facebook (FB, US) is considered a good company by value investors, possessing the financial reports they dream of: comparable to a small country's treasury...

段永平：隐私是头等事，扩张是正经事。（2019－05－01）

Duan Yongping: Privacy is a top priority, expansion is a serious matter. (2019-05-01)

14. 诺基亚与三星

14. Nokia and Samsung

01. 网友：诺基亚有很多品类产品，我印象里都有这个策略，低端占市场，中高端挣利润。如果没有Apple，我觉得似乎Nokia还在高端市场有好日子过。其实，早几年Nokia也转向了移动互联网领域，战略上似乎没有错。只是迟迟没有打开这个市场大门，因为用的还是原来的常规武器，不像是Apple这样的颠覆性的，重新定义了手机的iPhone。

01. Netizen: Nokia has many product categories, and I remember their strategy of dominating the low-end market and making profits from the mid-to-high-end market. If there was no Apple, I think Nokia would still have a good position in the high-end market. Actually, a few years ago Nokia also turned to the mobile internet field, and it seems that the strategy was not wrong. It's just that they didn't open the door to this market for a long time, because they used the same conventional weapons, not like Apple, which redefined the phone with the disruptive iPhone.

段永平：这是诺基亚的大错之一。从他们推出低端机开始我就猜他们会有今天了。[不说了]（2010－10－15）

Duan Yongping: This is one of Nokia's big mistakes. I suspected that they would end up like this since they started pushing low-end phones.[不说了] (2010-10-15)

02. 网友：去年开始一直在思考苹果、三星的生意，说下个人的不成熟的观点，三星的优势，三星在过去10年，在中国手机市场一直排名靠前。三星的研发、学习能力，芯片设计、显示屏技术等。三星在智能机上给我的感觉是迟到者，但是追赶速度极快。不知道是诺基亚、摩托罗拉等弱了点，还是三星强了点（我很疑惑的一点之一）？劣势：中高低端全线作战，；利润率低，购物体验不好。更像一个卖硬件的，一次性收入。安卓机竞争者越来越多。负债率比较高、固定投资比较大。

02. Netizen: I have been thinking about Apple and Samsung's business since last year. Here is my immature opinion. Samsung has advantages, and it has been ranking high in the Chinese mobile phone market for the past 10 years. Samsung's research and development, learning ability, chip design, display technology, etc. are top-notch. Samsung gives me the impression of being a latecomer in the smartphone market, but it catches up very quickly. I am not sure whether Nokia, Motorola and others have weakened, or Samsung has become stronger (one of the things I am very confused about). Disadvantages: it fights in all segments of the market, low profit margins, poor shopping experience. It is more like a hardware seller with one-time income. There are more and more Android competitors. The debt ratio is relatively high, and fixed investment is large.

段永平：三星的生意模式其实不太好，属于疲于奔命的那种，不然不会要求员工6点半上班哈（也许是谣传）。三星的问题在于其实没有产品追求，是生意导向的公司，焦点太发散，时间长了大概率会出问题。不过韩国企业非常努力，会把危机延长到比较大才出来，这点和日本企业比较像。

Duan Yongping: Samsung's business model is not very good, it is the kind that is struggling to survive. Otherwise, it would not require employees to start work at 6:30 in the morning (maybe it is a rumor). Samsung's problem is that it has no product pursuit. It is a business-oriented company, and its focus is too scattered. After a long time, there is a high probability that it will encounter problems. However, Korean companies are very hardworking and can extend crises to a relatively large scale before they emerge, which is similar to Japanese companies.

03. 网友：目前在智能机市场，一种模式是类似三星这种“多机型”模式，；另外一种是类似苹果的“精品”模式。您能否评价一下哪一种模式更好，为什么？

03. Netizen: Currently in the smartphone market, one model is the "multi-model" model like Samsung; the other is the "boutique" model like Apple. Can you comment on which model is better and why?

段永平：有本事做成苹果的会愿意做三星吗？（2013－08－02）

Duan Yongping: If you have the ability to do what Apple has done, would you be willing to do what Samsung does? (2013-08-02)

网友：1. 三星和苹果的差距在于价值观。三星很多东西都不愿舍弃，苹果对该舍弃的东西是真的得了手。

Netizen: 1. The difference between Samsung and Apple lies in their values. Samsung is not willing to give up many things, while Apple is really good at giving up things that should be given up.

2. 全球智能手机过几年能卖出15亿部以上，苹果能占有20%份额，每年卖出3－4亿部手机，每年赚个600－1000亿，那时候软件部分应该也很厉害了，只要苹果的企业文化不发生大的变化，这些都会发生的，如果期间苹果再研发出个厉害的硬件，对投资者就是额外的惊喜了。

2. Globally, more than 1.5 billion smartphones can be sold in a few years. And Apple can occupy a 20% market share, it can sell 300-400 million phones per year, earning 60-100 billion dollars per year. At that time, the software part should also be very powerful. As long as Apple's corporate culture does not undergo significant changes, all of this will happen. If Apple develops a powerful hardware product during this period, it will be an additional surprise for investors.

段永平：看三星和苹果有点像看篮球里美国队对其他队的比赛，场面上很激烈，其实差距很大。（2013－02－13）

Duan Yongping: Watching Samsung and Apple is like watching a game between the US basketball team and other teams. The scene is very intense, but the gap is actually very large. (2013-02-13)

04. 引用：苹果正在想尽一切办法拜托三星零部件供应的依赖

04. Quote: Apple is doing everything possible to reduce its dependence on Samsung's component supply.

尽管苹果与三星在法庭上打得不可开交，但事实上，法庭之外，苹果现在每年却不得不要支付给三星的零部件采购费用超过70亿美元。苹果是三星的最大客户，在其2011年总额1090亿美元的收入中占比达7.6%。这势必让苹果非常不甘心。在库克领导下，苹果正在竭力……

Although Apple and Samsung are fiercely fighting in court, in fact, outside the court, Apple has to pay Samsung more than $7 billion every year for component purchases. Apple is Samsung's largest customer, accounting for 7.6% of its total revenue of $109 billion in 2011. This inevitably makes Apple very unhappy. Under Cook's leadership, Apple is trying its best...

段永平：这只是个时间问题，同时也让三星很难受，因为这会逼着三星不停地追加投资在设备上，最后赚一堆过时的设备。也许不用10年，三星的日子就会比那些日本的老牌家电公司难受。一直没搞懂为什么日元那么强，哪天日元突然疲软的话，三星可能马上就难过了。（2012－08－31）

Duan Yongping: This is just a matter of time, and it also makes Samsung very uncomfortable because it forces Samsung to keep adding investment in equipment and eventually earn a lot of money from outdated devices. Maybe it won't take 10 years, and Samsung's life will be harder than those old Japanese home appliance companies. I've never understood why the yen is so strong. If the yen suddenly weakens one day, Samsung may immediately suffer. (2012-08-31)

ps：“好公司犯错误时往往是买入的机会。”难的是区别好公司犯错误和公司犯错误。引用@了一ing ：“判断一家公司的变量很多，尤其是对诚信有很多细节需要有些特殊事件才能显露的清楚，就像本不本分，只有在付代价的时候才能显现的出来一样，有时候代价越大的时候才能显现的越清晰。”

全部讨论

了一ing
2023-12-03 20:07

你PS里的这一句呢，刚好把一句正确的话用到了一家因资料不全，所以导致错误判断的一家公司身上了。那时候的Facebook还叫Facebook，之后大道先生很快就通过因为字节跳动事件引起的一些事件，而发现Facebook不是一家好公司了。所以投资是很难的，当然别的事情也一样的难。判断一家公司的变量很多，尤其是对诚信有很多细节需要有些特殊事件才能显露的清楚，就像本不本分，只有在付代价的时候才能显现的出来一样，有时候代价越大的时候才能显现的越清晰。

树一树二森林海
2023-11-23 13:00

11. 百货行业
11. Retail Industry
01. 网友：全国百货行业中第一个“1000亿销售额”大公司的股票令我有点搞不懂，现在市值94个亿，自有商业地产保守估值60个亿，净资产收益率百分之八，年末公司账面的现今30多个亿，而且他的购物中心在东北和内蒙古都在最好的地段，也都是人气最旺的购物中心，超市做的也很好，我是内蒙一个连锁超市的一个供应商（做了有七年了对超市百货有一定了解），今年我做的这个超市连锁集团（当地最大的超市百货连锁）也被它收购了，段老师，这样的公司算严重低估的股票吗？
01. Netizen: I'm a bit confused about the stock of the first "100 billion yuan sales" large company in the national retail industry. Its current market value is 9.4 billion yuan, with conservative estimated value of self-owned commercial real estate at 6 billion yuan, a net asset return rate of 8%, and over 3 billion yuan in cash on the company's books at the end of the year. Moreover, its shopping centers are located in the best areas of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and they are also the most popular ones. The supermarkets are performing well as well. I am a supplier for a chain supermarket in Inner Mongolia (I have been in this business for seven years and have some understanding of the supermarket industry). This year, my supermarket chain group (the largest local supermarket chain) was also acquired by this company. Mr. Duan, would you consider this company's stock severely undervalued?
段永平：没人可以根据你提供的这些资料来判断一个公司是不是低估了。不过，百货行业还是远离一点的好，除非真的觉得特别便宜。淘宝这种商业模式最后会让大多数的地面店麻烦的，越大的店越麻烦。（2011－12－17）
Duan Yongping: No one can determine whether a company is undervalued based on the information you provided. However, it's better to stay away from the retail industry unless you really think it's exceptionally cheap. Business models like Taobao will eventually cause trouble for most physical stores, and the larger the store, the more troublesome it becomes. (2011-12-17)
段永平：记得很多年以前，有一次看资料，发现WMT的纯利大概只有5%左右，而Kmart的成本比Wmart大约高5%。我一想，这Kmart早晚要完蛋，只是不知道多久而已。结果3年后Kmart就到了。
Duan Yongping: I remember many years ago, when I was looking at the data, I found that WMT's net profit was only about 5%, while Kmart's costs were about 5% higher than Wmart's. I thought to myself, Kmart is going to be finished sooner or later, just don't know how long it will take. And three years later, Kmart went under.
有人说我是乌鸦嘴，说谁倒谁最后就倒了。其实，没那么邪乎，但确实我说要出大麻烦的公司好像大多数最后都出了。投资里很重要的一点就是要避免大麻烦。巴菲特讲的不想拿10年的企业你就不应该投。
Some people say I'm a jinx, that whoever I mention will ultimately fail. Actually, it's not that mysterious, but indeed, it seems like most of the companies I said would encounter big troubles really did. It's crucial in investments to avoid major troubles. Buffett says if you don't want to hold a company for 10 years, you shouldn't invest in it.
02. 网友：可否谈一下你对零售业的理解，你对当前的连锁业进入电商有什么看法。
02. Netizen: Can you talk about your understanding of the retail industry and your thoughts on chain stores entering e-commerce?
段永平：觉得都是被逼的，最后没几家能活下来。（2012－05－31）
Duan Yongping: I think they are all forced to do so, and in the end, only a few will survive. (2012-05-31)
【引用】巴菲特31年股东信精华——3（2012－02－17）
【Quotation]】Highlights from Buffett's 31-year Shareholder Letters - 3 (2012-02-17)
64. 在一个没有管制的商品标准化产业，一家公司不是降低成本增加竞争力，就是被迫倒闭关门。（1994）
64. In an unregulated commodity standardization industry, a company either lowers costs to increase competitiveness or is forced to close its doors. (1994)
65. 零售业的经营相当不易，在我个人的投资生涯中，我看过许多零售业曾经拥有极高的成长率与股东权益报酬率，但是到最后，突然间表现急剧下滑，很多甚至被迫以倒闭关门收场。比起一般制造业或服务业，这种刹那间的永恒在零售业屡见不鲜，部分原因是这些零售业者必须时时保持聪明警戒， 因为你的竞争对手随时准备复制你的做法，然后超越你，同时消费者绝对不会吝于给予新加入业者尝试的机会。零售业一单业绩下滑，注定就会失败。相对于这种必须时时保持警戒的产业，还有一种我称之为只要聪明一时的产业，举个例子来说，如果你在很早以前就懂得睿智地买下一家地方电视台，你甚至可以把它交给懒惰又差劲的亲人来经营，而这项事业却仍然可以好好地经营个几十年，当然若是你懂得将Tom Murphy（汤姆•墨菲）摆在正确的位置之上，你所获得的将会更惊人，但是对零售业来说，要是用人不当的话，就等于买了一张准备倒闭关门的门票。（1995）
65. Retail business is extremely challenging. In my personal investment career, I have seen many retail businesses with high growth rates and return on equity, but in the end, their performance suddenly declines, and many are forced to close down. This sudden and eternal decline is quite common in the retail industry, unlike general manufacturing or service industries. One reason is that these retailers must always stay alert because their competitors are ready to replicate their practices and surpass them, while consumers are always willing to give new entrants a chance. Once the performance of a retail business declines, it is destined to fail. Compared to this industry that requires constant vigilance, there is another type of industry I refer to as the "one-time smart" industry. For example, if you had the foresight to buy a local television station a long time ago, you could even hand it over to lazy and incompetent family members to run, and the business could still thrive for several decades. Of course, if you knew how to position Tom Murphy correctly, the results would be even more astonishing. But for the retail industry, if you don't manage your people properly, it's like buying a ticket to closure. (1995)
12. 新零售
网友：国内现在都在讨论，并且有很多企业都在搞得新零售，您怎么看？
段永平：没太关注过这个名词，你是说像拼多多这种电商吗？目前74%的美国人民买东西的首选已经是亚马逊了（今天网上看到的），所以说新零售确实很恐怖。不过这个行业非常有可能会变得赢家通吃，或者是几个大头垄断，很多企业搞得现象也许持续不了太久。（2019－03－21）
13. Facebook 脸书
13. Facebook
01. 网友：想向您请教最近的热点问题：Facebook和网络隐私保护。
01. Netizen: I would like to ask you about the recent hot topic: Facebook and online privacy protection.
Facebook的商业模式，我个人理解：是在连接人的同时，通过用户数据分析理解了解人，并据此通过广告等形式商业化。
Facebook's business model, as I understand it personally, is to connect people while commercializing through forms such as advertising by understanding and analyzing user data.
我想请教您：如果个人数据的运用权利更多地交给用户选择，那么：给予信息流推送的商业模式是否还可以成立？Facebook（脸书）生意模式是否会收到严重的冲击？
I would like to ask you: If more rights to use personal data are given to users for selection, then can the business model of providing information flow push still stand? Will Facebook's business model be severely impacted?
段永平：个人认为FB还是一样厉害。用户没有别的选择。（2018－05－01）
Duan Yongping: Personally, I think FB is still powerful. Users don't have other choices. (2018-05-01)
02. 网友：您怎么看FB（脸书），高管的不断离职会不会对公司产生致命打击？现价可以买入做长期投资吗？
02. Netizen: How do you view the continuous executive departures from Facebook? Will it have a fatal impact on the company? Is it a good time to buy for long-term investment at the current price?
段永平：我不推荐人买股票，我觉得如果你需要问人你该不该买的时候那就还没到你能买的时候。我个人觉得FB也是家不错的公司，生意模式和文化都不错，扎克伯格年轻有为，还能好好干很多年。公司有人离职很正常。（2019－03－20）
Duan Yongping: I don't recommend people to buy stocks. I feel if you need to ask others whether you should buy, then it's not yet time for you to buy. Personally, I think FB is also a good company, with a good business model and culture. Mark Zuckerberg is young and capable, and can continue to perform well for many years. It's normal for people to leave a company. (2019-03-20)
网友：您投资FB（脸书），应该是大概率觉得它未来5－10年净利润达到500亿美金左右，请问能分享下这其中的逻辑吗？
Netizen: In your investment in FB, you probably expect its net profit to reach around 50 billion USD in the next 5-10years. Could you share the logic behind this?
段永平：大概就是觉得生意模式很好，企业文化也很好，扎克伯格还那么年轻，所以这个公司还会有不错的成长空间。（2019－03－23）
Duan Yongping: It's mainly because I think the business model is very good, the corporate culture is also good, and Mark Zuckerberg is still young, so this company will have good growth potential. (2019-03-23)
03. 网友：最近看了一些你在雪球的分享，你多次陈述公司本分的重要性。我持有FB（脸书）的股票有一段时间了，获利还算可以，如果不考虑本分的角度应该会继续长期持有。不过FB近几个月频繁爆出隐私泄露的问题（最近几天又爆出明文存储用户账号密码），我在思考FB在本分这个问题上是否有明显的瑕疵，或者怎么理解公司的本分？
03. Netizen: I recently read some of your posts on Snowball, and you have repeatedly emphasized the importance of a company's integrity. I have held FB stocks for a while now, and the profits have been decent. If don't consider the aspect of integrity, I would continue to hold them for the long term. However, FB has frequently been involved in privacy breach issues in recent months (and just in the past few days, it was revealed that they were storing user account passwords in plaintext). I'm contemplating whether FB has significant flaws in terms of integrity, or how to understand the company's integrity?
段永平：FB原来的使命是“连接世界”但没有注意隐私，现在使命不变但注重隐私已经是提前了。好公司犯错误时往往是买入的机会。（2019－03－28）
Duan Yongping: FB's original mission was to "connect the world," but they didn't pay attention to privacy. Now, the mission hasn't changed, but the focus on privacy has been advanced. Good companies often present buying opportunities when they make mistakes. (2019-03-28)
04. 引用：Facebook（脸书）财报解读：走出阴霾，变现有惊喜
04. Quotation: Facebook's financial report interpretation: Emerging from the haze, monetization brings surprises
Facebook（FB. US）是价值投资者口中的好公司，拥有他们梦寐以求的财务报表：堪比小国国库的……
Facebook (FB, US) is considered a good company by value investors, possessing the financial reports they dream of: comparable to a small country's treasury...
段永平：隐私是头等事，扩张是正经事。（2019－05－01）
Duan Yongping: Privacy is a top priority, expansion is a serious matter. (2019-05-01)
14. 诺基亚与三星
14. Nokia and Samsung
01. 网友：诺基亚有很多品类产品，我印象里都有这个策略，低端占市场，中高端挣利润。如果没有Apple，我觉得似乎Nokia还在高端市场有好日子过。其实，早几年Nokia也转向了移动互联网领域，战略上似乎没有错。只是迟迟没有打开这个市场大门，因为用的还是原来的常规武器，不像是Apple这样的颠覆性的，重新定义了手机的iPhone。
01. Netizen: Nokia has many product categories, and I remember their strategy of dominating the low-end market and making profits from the mid-to-high-end market. If there was no Apple, I think Nokia would still have a good position in the high-end market. Actually, a few years ago Nokia also turned to the mobile internet field, and it seems that the strategy was not wrong. It's just that they didn't open the door to this market for a long time, because they used the same conventional weapons, not like Apple, which redefined the phone with the disruptive iPhone.
段永平：这是诺基亚的大错之一。从他们推出低端机开始我就猜他们会有今天了。
（2010－10－15）
Duan Yongping: This is one of Nokia's big mistakes. I suspected that they would end up like this since they started pushing low-end phones.
(2010-10-15)
02. 网友：去年开始一直在思考苹果、三星的生意，说下个人的不成熟的观点，三星的优势，三星在过去10年，在中国手机市场一直排名靠前。三星的研发、学习能力，芯片设计、显示屏技术等。三星在智能机上给我的感觉是迟到者，但是追赶速度极快。不知道是诺基亚、摩托罗拉等弱了点，还是三星强了点（我很疑惑的一点之一）？劣势：中高低端全线作战，；利润率低，购物体验不好。更像一个卖硬件的，一次性收入。安卓机竞争者越来越多。负债率比较高、固定投资比较大。
02. Netizen: I have been thinking about Apple and Samsung's business since last year. Here is my immature opinion. Samsung has advantages, and it has been ranking high in the Chinese mobile phone market for the past 10 years. Samsung's research and development, learning ability, chip design, display technology, etc. are top-notch. Samsung gives me the impression of being a latecomer in the smartphone market, but it catches up very quickly. I am not sure whether Nokia, Motorola and others have weakened, or Samsung has become stronger (one of the things I am very confused about). Disadvantages: it fights in all segments of the market, low profit margins, poor shopping experience. It is more like a hardware seller with one-time income. There are more and more Android competitors. The debt ratio is relatively high, and fixed investment is large.
段永平：三星的生意模式其实不太好，属于疲于奔命的那种，不然不会要求员工6点半上班哈（也许是谣传）。三星的问题在于其实没有产品追求，是生意导向的公司，焦点太发散，时间长了大概率会出问题。不过韩国企业非常努力，会把危机延长到比较大才出来，这点和日本企业比较像。
Duan Yongping: Samsung's business model is not very good, it is the kind that is struggling to survive. Otherwise, it would not require employees to start work at 6:30 in the morning (maybe it is a rumor). Samsung's problem is that it has no product pursuit. It is a business-oriented company, and its focus is too scattered. After a long time, there is a high probability that it will encounter problems. However, Korean companies are very hardworking and can extend crises to a relatively large scale before they emerge, which is similar to Japanese companies.
03. 网友：目前在智能机市场，一种模式是类似三星这种“多机型”模式，；另外一种是类似苹果的“精品”模式。您能否评价一下哪一种模式更好，为什么？
03. Netizen: Currently in the smartphone market, one model is the "multi-model" model like Samsung; the other is the "boutique" model like Apple. Can you comment on which model is better and why?
段永平：有本事做成苹果的会愿意做三星吗？（2013－08－02）
Duan Yongping: If you have the ability to do what Apple has done, would you be willing to do what Samsung does? (2013-08-02)
网友：1. 三星和苹果的差距在于价值观。三星很多东西都不愿舍弃，苹果对该舍弃的东西是真的得了手。
Netizen: 1. The difference between Samsung and Apple lies in their values. Samsung is not willing to give up many things, while Apple is really good at giving up things that should be given up.
2. 全球智能手机过几年能卖出15亿部以上，苹果能占有20%份额，每年卖出3－4亿部手机，每年赚个600－1000亿，那时候软件部分应该也很厉害了，只要苹果的企业文化不发生大的变化，这些都会发生的，如果期间苹果再研发出个厉害的硬件，对投资者就是额外的惊喜了。
2. Globally, more than 1.5 billion smartphones can be sold in a few years. And Apple can occupy a 20% market share, it can sell 300-400 million phones per year, earning 60-100 billion dollars per year. At that time, the software part should also be very powerful. As long as Apple's corporate culture does not undergo significant changes, all of this will happen. If Apple develops a powerful hardware product during this period, it will be an additional surprise for investors.
段永平：看三星和苹果有点像看篮球里美国队对其他队的比赛，场面上很激烈，其实差距很大。（2013－02－13）
Duan Yongping: Watching Samsung and Apple is like watching a game between the US basketball team and other teams. The scene is very intense, but the gap is actually very large. (2013-02-13)
04. 引用：苹果正在想尽一切办法拜托三星零部件供应的依赖
04. Quote: Apple is doing everything possible to reduce its dependence on Samsung's component supply.
尽管苹果与三星在法庭上打得不可开交，但事实上，法庭之外，苹果现在每年却不得不要支付给三星的零部件采购费用超过70亿美元。苹果是三星的最大客户，在其2011年总额1090亿美元的收入中占比达7.6%。这势必让苹果非常不甘心。在库克领导下，苹果正在竭力……
Although Apple and Samsung are fiercely fighting in court, in fact, outside the court, Apple has to pay Samsung more than $7 billion every year for component purchases. Apple is Samsung's largest customer, accounting for 7.6% of its total revenue of $109 billion in 2011. This inevitably makes Apple very unhappy. Under Cook's leadership, Apple is trying its best...
段永平：这只是个时间问题，同时也让三星很难受，因为这会逼着三星不停地追加投资在设备上，最后赚一堆过时的设备。也许不用10年，三星的日子就会比那些日本的老牌家电公司难受。一直没搞懂为什么日元那么强，哪天日元突然疲软的话，三星可能马上就难过了。（2012－08－31）
Duan Yongping: This is just a matter of time, and it also makes Samsung very uncomfortable because it forces Samsung to keep adding investment in equipment and eventually earn a lot of money from outdated devices. Maybe it won't take 10 years, and Samsung's life will be harder than those old Japanese home appliance companies. I've never understood why the yen is so strong. If the yen suddenly weakens one day, Samsung may immediately suffer. (2012-08-31)
ps：“好公司犯错误时往往是买入的机会。”

你比我胖
2023-11-23 12:38