9. 银行
9. Banks
01. 网友：银行是不是也属于无法产生差异化的行业？
01. Netizen: Are banks also considered as industries that cannot generate differentiation?
段永平：银行产品非常复杂，差异化远大过航空公司，客户的转换成本也非常高。银行比较难懂的是风险因素。（2014－10－31）
Duan Yongping: Bank products are very complex, and differentiation is much greater than that of airlines. The cost for customers to switch is also very high. The difficult aspect of banks is understanding the risk factors. (2014-10-31)
段永平：我不懂银行。对我而言，即使是让我开银行我也不愿开的。怎么看，银行都是靠别人借钱做生意，而且生意也是借钱给别人，这两件事我都不知道该怎么做，所以不懂。（2012－07－29）
Duan Yongping: I don't understand banks. For me, even if I were asked to start a bank, I wouldn't want to. When it comes to banks, they rely on others borrowing money to do business, and the business is also about lending money to others. I don't know how to handle these two things, so I don't understand. (2012-07-29)
02. 网友：您说不太懂银行股，我觉得蛮奇怪的，请问是否是谦虚的说法呢？还是阿段看到美国太多银行倒闭，担心国内银行股什么的呢。是否国内银行未来会产生大量坏账。幼稚地请问您认为银行业，您哪里对它不了解呢？
02. Netizen: You mentioned that you don't quite understand bank stocks, which I find quite strange. May I ask if this is a humble statement? Or is it because Mr. Duan has seen too many banks fail in the United States and is worried about domestic bank stocks, etc.? Will there be a large number of bad debts in domestic banks in the future? Naively, may I ask which aspect of the banking industry you don't understand?
段永平：就是如何保证回本的问题。如果回不了本，利息是什么？
Duan Yongping: It's about how to ensure a return on investment. If the investment cannot be recovered, then what is the interest?
事实上，有很多银行是因为做的大才活下来的，因为国家会救（一部分）。每十年八年一定来一次，确实不好懂。（2010－06－01）
In fact, many banks survive because of their large scale, and the government will provide assistance (to some extent). It happens every eight to ten years for sure, and it's indeed hard to understand. (2010-06-01)
网友：我同样遇到这个问题，看起来再好的银行，除非我知道他贷款最大的一些客户保证能还钱，要不我什么也不知道，就不敢买，除非有一种可能，那就是这个银行来历稳健，发错贷款的概率比较低（但是多低是比较低呢？），买入的价格要是真清算了还不至于亏多少，但是这种情况可遇不可求，因此好几年了也没弄明白银行能不能买，因此就是只能是不买了。
Netizen: I have encountered the same problem. It seems that no matter how good a bank appears to be, unless I know that some of their largest clients can guarantee repayment or I don't know anyting at all, I don't dare to invest. Unless there's a possibility that the bank has a solid background and the probability of making wrong loans is relatively low (but how low is relatively low?), and if the purchase price is truly settled, then I won't suffer much loss. But this situation is hard to come by, so after several years, I still haven't figured out whether banks can be invested in. Therefore, I can only choose not to buy.
03. 网友：你之前曾说过：始终没完全搞懂银行的业务的风险到底在哪儿。美国的一些大银行隔个十年八年就来一次大动荡，还没明白是怎么回事。
03. Netizen: You previously mentioned that you still haven't fully understood where the risks lie in the banking business. Some big banks in the United States have major turmoil every eight to ten years, and I still don't understand what's going on.
记得后来你也用一些雅虎换成了BAC（美国银行），不知是不是对银行的业务有了更深的理解看懂了？求教。
I remember later you also used some Yahoo to exchange for BAC (Bank of America), wondering if this means you have gained a deeper understanding of the bank's business? Seeking guidance.
段永平：我说过是跟着老巴买的哦。BAC的重建成本大概在13块上下（不包括人）；正常年景的盈利大概可以到2块左右（现在没有）；老巴在7块左右买的可转换债券，意味着老巴认为BAC的麻烦已经解决了。所以我在6块上下买了一些。无论如何，银行是用margin的生意，任何时候我都不会重仓的。（2013－02－03）
Duan Yongping: I mentioned that I followed Buffett to buy it. The reconstruction cost of BAC is roughly around 13 dollars (excluding personnel); the normal year's profit can reach about 2 dollars (not now); Buffett bought convertible bonds at around 7 dollars, which means Buffett believes that BAC's troubles have been resolved. So I bought some at around 6 dollars. In any case, banking is a business that uses margin, so I will never be heavily invested at any time. (2013-02-03)
04. 网友：银行是很好挣钱的行业。如果给我个人银行牌照。我能很轻松地在我附近开一家银行分店。比这条街所有的店铺都来钱。
04. Netizen: Banking is a very profitable industry. If I were given a personal banking license, I could easily open a bank branch near me. It would make more money than all the stores on this street combined.
段永平：在中国的银行看起来好赚钱是因为牌照不是随便就能拿到的（如果真的最后能赚钱的话），不然就会像美国一样，每隔个十年八年就要倒掉一大批。（2011－01－19）
Duan Yongping: Banks in China seem to be making good money because licenses are not easy to obtain (if they can really make money in the end). Otherwise, it will be like the United States, where a large batch has to be closed every eight to ten years. (2011-01-19)
05. 网友：您曾说下次如果有机会再与老巴吃饭，一定专门请教怎么才能搞懂银行与保险公司，后来有请教了吗？如果有请教了，或您自己悟明白了，可以谈谈您对这方面的理解吗？
05. Netizen: You once said that if you had the opportunity to have dinner with Buffett again, you would definitely ask specifically how to understand banks and insurance companies. Have you sought advice since then? If you have sought advice or come to understand it yourself, can you talk about your understanding in this area?
段永平：大道理明白，细节上不太懂，所以我还是不太会投资这类公司。（2015－05－12）
Duan Yongping: I understand the general principles, but I don't quite understand the details, so I still don't know how to invest in these types of companies. (2015-05-12)
06. 网友：大道是不是对银行的有打算啦？
06. Netizen: Da Dao, do you have any plans for banks?
段永平：没有。最近老巴提了一句，所以我开始想想，准备花几年时间想，因为银行确实不可替代，但实体银行会不会被替代还不知道呢。（2019－03－21）
Duan Yongping: No. Buffett mentioned it recently, so I started thinking about it and prepared to spend a few years thinking, because banks are indeed irreplaceable. But whether physical banks will be replaced or not is still unknown. (2019-03-21)
07. 网友：欢迎大道关注银行。至于实体银行会不会消失，我的答案是不会。举个例子，银行不太可能凭企业的线上申请材料放几千万或者几个亿的贷款。贷前调查还是能在很大程度上减少信息不对称的。
07. Netizen: Welcome Da Dao's attention to banks. As for whether physical banks will disappear, my answer is no. For example, banks are unlikely to approve loans worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars based solely on online applications from companies. Pre-loan investigations can greatly reduce information asymmetry.
段永平：我不认为实体银行会马上消失，但未来银行可能和现在很不一样了。互联网，尤其是移动互联网正在改变太多的东西，包括银行。（2019－03－21）
Duan Yongping: I don't think physical banks will disappear immediately, but banks in the future may be very different from now. The internet, especially mobile internet, is changing many things, including banks. (2019-03-21)
网友：请教大道对于银行业有没有新的看法？
Netizen: I would like to ask if Da Dao you has any new thoughts on the banking industry?
段永平：没啥新想法，依然觉得移动互联网会对传统银行造成冲击。也许再有10年就能看到变化了。（2019－08－17）
Duan Yongping: Nothing new, I still believe that mobile internet will have an impact on traditional banks. Maybe we will see changes in another 10 years. (2019-08-17)
10. 啤酒企业
10. Beer Industry
网友：我在观察一个啤酒企业，这个企业的酒在北京一带占据绝对主流，我看中这股票的原因是利润比较稳定，品牌不错，南方地区很多市场还没有，发展空间很大，现在的价位虽然不是相当便宜，但已经可以关注了，希望各位讨论一下，给我一些启发。
Netizen: I am observing a beer company whose products dominate the Beijing area. I am interested in this stock because it has stable profits, a good brand, and there is still untapped market potential in many southern regions. The current price is not cheap, but it is worth paying attention to. I hope everyone can discuss it and give me some insights.
段永平：啤酒和水差不多，运费很高，只能就地生产，所以好的地方品牌未必就能跑到别的地方去卖。啤酒牌子多了去了，能够成为全国或世界型品牌的极少，不然可口可乐也能卖啤酒了。个人感觉里见过最不聪明的啤酒品牌叫“茅台啤酒”，真不知道他们是哪根神经起了主导作用才这么做的。（2013－03－22）
Duan Yongping: Beer is similar to water, and transportation costs are high, so production needs to be localized. Therefore, a good regional brand may not be able to expand to other areas easily. There are so many beer brands, but only a few can become national or global brands. Otherwise, Coca-Cola would also be selling beer. The most foolish beer brand I have ever seen is called "Maotai Beer." I really don't know which nerve guided them to do that. (2013-03-22)
网友：最近也在试着去了解青岛啤酒，总感觉啤酒行业的品牌忠诚度不是特别强（在品牌档次差距不大的时候）。就行业属性而言，会是门好生意么？不知道段哥有没有可以分享的看法？
Netizen: Recently, I've been trying to understand Qingdao Beer. I always feel that brand loyalty in the beer industry is not particularly strong (when there is not much difference in brand quality). In terms of industry attributes, is it a good business? I wonder if Da Dao has any insights to share?
段永平：不太了解好像也不容易理解。如果能做成可口可乐那样的啤酒当然是厉害的，但好像没见过。感觉啤酒的整体市场还是很大的。（2013－03－24）
Duan Yongping: I'm not familiar with it and it's not easy to understand. It would be impressive if it could become like Coca-Cola, but I haven't seen that happen. The overall beer market still seems significant. (2013-03-24)
红酒
Wine
网友：最近在思考葡萄酒这个行业在中国发展，考虑健康生活在国人中的慢慢普及，红酒会慢慢得以认同，但目前格局受外国品牌冲击行业有些困难，段总如何看待国有品牌在未来格局。
Netizen: I have been thinking about the development of the wine industry in China recently. Considering the gradual popularity of a healthy lifestyle among Chinese people, red wine will gradually be recognized. However, currently, the industry is facing some difficulties due to the impact of foreign brands. How does Mr. Duan view domestic brands in the future landscape?
段永平：作为喜欢喝点红酒的人，对国产葡萄酒没看法。（2013－03－29）
Duan Yongping: As someone who enjoys drinking red wine, I have no opinion on domestic grape wine. (2013-03-29)
网友：一个是张裕B。这两年来，以B股计价的张裕，总值多在10亿－20亿美元之间，个人认为是很便宜的！就是重建，这个价也重建不出一个百年老牌的。
Netizen: One is Changyu B. In the past couple of years, Changyu, valued in B shares, has had a total value between 1 billion and 2 billion US dollars, which I consider quite cheap! Even with reconstruction, this price cannot rebuild a century-old brand.
网友N：看到大家和段总提个股，说一下对张裕的认识。以前不懂时，“投资”过张裕一年多，运气好逃过大跌。后来也有所关注，随着对投资认知的加深，感觉企业偏市场导向，过于在乎营销、利润等 ，文化不太喜欢，可能个人理解有误。
Netizen N: Seeing everyone mention individual stocks, let me talk about my understanding of Changyu. I didn't understand it before and "invested" in Changyu for over a year, luckily avoiding a major decline. Later, I paid attention to it, and as my investment knowledge deepened, I felt that the company was more market-oriented, overly concerned about marketing, profits, etc., and I didn't particularly like its culture. Maybe I misunderstood it personally.
段永平：没看过公司，但酒确实不是我愿意喝的那种，所以我不会有任何兴趣去了解这家公司的。（2015－12－01）
Duan Yongping: I haven't looked at the company, but the wine is not the kind that I enjoy, so I have no interest in understanding this company. (2015-12-01)
网友：几年前张裕还在被不少投资者看好，接下来面对的是大幅的下滑，是没看到来自西方的冲击，即使有些投资者自己也是喝红酒的人（其中有爱周游世界的西方人），段总投资茅台酒没有碰到这样的滑铁卢。张裕的现象让我有些困惑，也不知道错投的投资者这其中有多少像是芒格说的误判心理，有多少是不够了解市场和产品的整体情况，个人觉得红酒会受到冲击不是非常难看出来。
Netizen: A few years ago, many investors had high expectations for Changyu, but what followed was a significant decline. They didn't anticipate the impact from the West, even though some investors themselves are wine drinkers (including Westerners who love traveling the world). Mr. Duan didn't encounter such a Waterloo with his investment in Maotai. The phenomenon of Changyu has left me confused, and I don't know how many investors who made the wrong investment decision had the mental bias as described by Munger, and how many simply lacked a comprehensive understanding of the market and the overall situation of the product. Personally, I think it is not very difficult to see that red wine will be impacted.
段永平：红酒是特别个性化的产品，世界上大概有10万个红酒品牌（如果不是更多的话）。红酒受原材料的影响是无法保持产品的高度一致性的，所以无法大量生产，能大量生产的就也许就不该叫红酒。（2017－08－20）
Duan Yongping: Red wine is a particularly personalized product. There are probably 100,000 red wine brands in the world (if not more). Red wine cannot maintain a high level of consistency due to the influence of raw materials, so it cannot be mass-produced. If it can be mass-produced, perhaps it shouldn't be called red wine. (2017-08-20)