3. 苏宁、携程
3. Suning, Ctrip
01. 网友：大道能否分析一下“苏宁云商”模式？敢为天下后的苏宁能否二次起飞？
01. Netizen: Da Dao, could you analyze the "Suning Cloud Business" model? Can Suning, the "daring to be the last" company, take off for a second time?
段永平：没看过苏宁。学会先想一下生意模式很重要。（2013－03－20）
Duan Yongping: I haven't studied Suning. It's important to first think about the business model. (2013-03-20)
网友补充：好的企业文化只能让生意模式出现问题的企业减缓下降的速度而不能逆转下降的趋势，比如书店、胶卷生产商、报纸、汽车、航空公司、百货公司，持续的竞争优势的基础是好的生意模式。另外，连续几年营收和利
高速增长并不意味着就拥有好的生意模式，比如苏宁和携程，我曾经以为他们很厉害而且能继续厉害下去。
Netizen Supplement: Good corporate culture can only slow down the decline of companies with problems in their business model, but cannot reverse the downward trend. For example, bookstores, film manufacturers, newspapers, automobile and airline companies, and department stores. The foundation of sustained competitive advantage lies in a good business model. In addition, several years of rapid revenue and profit growth does not necessarily mean having a good business model, such as Suning and Ctrip. I used to think they were very powerful and could continue to be powerful.
段永平：这个理解很好，说明生意模式很重要。（2013－04－02）
Duan Yongping: This understanding is very good, indicating the importance of the business model. (2013-04-02)
网友：苏宁和携程都是用户需求转移型了，而产品形态没跟不上。苏宁受电商的冲击大。携程是以往用户订酒店机票都是在电话呼叫预订，所以携程积累起来的会员规模和呼叫中心在产品竞争中很有优势，呼叫中心的服务能力能构成差异化的竞争，携程也获得了市场垄断的优势，有不错的定价权。现在休闲旅客崛起，更倾向在线预订，除了订房需求外，还有了解酒店的设施、交通、区域的信息需求。在线预订对OTA（在线旅游）的服务能力要求降低了，所以大量OTA（在线旅游）供应商分分崛起，由于售卖的酒店预订是标准化的产品，同质化竞争，所以要开打价格战。携程的产品是从电话呼叫预订向在线预订模式转型，生意模式变了，以往的利润结构也没了。
Netizen: Both Suning and Ctrip have experienced a shift in user demand, but their product forms have not kept up. Suning has been greatly impacted by e-commerce. Ctrip used to have an advantage in member scale and call center services due to the previous practice of users calling to book hotels and flights. The service capability of the call center could constitute differentiated competition, and Ctrip also gained market monopoly advantage and good pricing power. Now, leisure travelers are on the rise, preferring online bookings. In addition to room booking needs, there is also a demand for information on hotel facilities, transportation, and area. The requirements for OTA (online travel agency) service capability have decreased due to online bookings, so many OTA suppliers have emerged, leading to homogeneous competition and price wars. Ctrip's product has transitioned from telephone booking to online booking, changing the business model, and the previous profit structure has disappeared.
段永平：这两家公司的产品都是很难有差异化的，感觉不容易找到好的生意模式。记得携程曾经到过蛮高的价钱，那时看过一眼，没看懂。后来掉到一半时又看了一眼，还是看不懂，主要是想不通搜索对携程未来的威胁是什么。感觉这种公司形态10年后就不太容易存在了。（2013－04－03）
Duan Yongping: It's very difficult for these two companies to have differentiated products. It seems difficult to find a good business model. I remember Ctrip once had a pretty high price, at that time I took a look but didn't understand it. Later, when it dropped by half, I took another look and still didn't understand it, mainly because I couldn't figure out what the threat to Ctrip's future search was. It feels like this kind of company structure won't be easy to exist in 10 years. (2013-04-03)
4. 阿里巴巴
4. Alibaba
网友：阿里巴巴的商业模式非常简单，主要就是做网上商业中介，收取中介费。不要看马云这个秀那个秀的，都去掉就是一做中介的，至于规模赚钱能力就是另外一回事了。
Netizen: Alibaba's business model is very simple, mainly acting as an online business intermediary and charging intermediary fees. Don't be fooled by Jack Ma's shows, at its core, it's just an intermediary. As for the scale and money-making ability, that's another matter.
段永平：是啊，就是一个现代掮客。其实Google，百度也差不多。他们都不做“产品”，但给人提供方便。（2010－06－09）
Duan Yongping: Yes, it's just a modern broker. In fact, Google and Baidu are similar. They don't create "products," but they provide convenience to people. (2010-06-09)
5. 汽车行业
5. Automobile Industry
01. 网友：心中有一个疑惑，希望得到老段的指导：
01. Netizen: I have a doubt and hope to get guidance from Mr. Duan:
Buffett（巴菲特）说过回避轮子上的公司，这里应该是指汽车行业,“回避”至少包含了两层意思，其一他搞懂了这个行业，其二汽车行业不是好的投资标的。
Buffett once said to avoid companies on wheels, which should refer to the automobile industry. "Avoiding" at least contains two layers of meaning: first, he understands this industry; second, the automobile industry is not a good investment target.
2010年在央视2台的节目中，Buffett说“他和（芒格）观察这个行业50年了”，这也说明他对这个行业是非常了解的。
In a program on CCTV-2 in 2010, Buffett said, "He and (Munger) have been observing this industry for 50 years," which also shows that he is very familiar with this industry.
欧美日本走过的路表明，GDP（国内生产总值）每增长1个百分比，汽车行业就增长3个百分比。1916年的时候美国有五百多家汽车厂，现在只剩3家，中国可能会走同样的路。从上面两点来看，一方面蛋糕越来越大，另一方面行业集中度越来越高，对于这个行业里的优势企业来说，按理来说应该是有机会的，为什么Buffett选择回避呢？
The paths taken by Europe, America, and Japan indicate that for every 1% increase in GDP, the automobile industry grows by 3%. In 1916, the United States had more than 500 car manufacturers, but now only three remain, and China may go down the same path. From the above two points, on the one hand, the market is getting bigger, and on the other hand, the industry concentration is increasing. For the leading companies in this industry, there should logically be opportunities. Why did Buffett choose to avoid it?
或许Buffett回避这个行业的原因只在美国存在？好像美国汽车行业从业人员的福利和待遇很高，也就是说管理费用高昂，但这个问题在中国是不存在的。或许是因为Buffett回避的原因是汽车行业是个重资产的行业？
Perhaps Buffett's reason for avoiding this industry only exists in the United States? It seems that the welfare and treatment of employees in the American automobile industry are very high, meaning high management costs, but this problem does not exist in China. Perhaps Buffett's reason for avoiding is that the automobile industry is a capital-intensive industry?
段永平：这类企业的产品很难有差异化，所以长期而言很难赚钱。（2011－03－22）
Duan Yongping: It's difficult for companies in this category to differentiate their products, so it's difficult to make money in the long run. (2011-03-22)
02. 引用：巴菲特一季度买入1000万股通用汽车减持英特尔
02. Quotation: Buffett Buys 10 Million Shares of General Motors and Reduces Stake in Intel in the First Quarter
巴菲特旗下伯克希尔－哈撒韦公司周三提交的监管文件显示，2012年第一季度公司买入1000万股通用汽车公司股票，同时买入Viacom维亚康姆公司160万B类股。不过，巴菲特将英特尔公司的持股从1150万削减至770万……
Regulatory filings submitted by Berkshire Hathaway on Wednesday showed that the company bought 10 million shares of General Motors in the first quarter of 2012, and also acquired 1.6 million Class B shares of Viacom. However, Buffett reduced its stake in Intel from 11.5 million to 7.7 million shares...
段永平：老巴的intel就卖了？买通用汽车有点费解，生意模式可不太好啊，感觉像个雪茄烟蒂。不过通用汽车的财务数据倒是不错。
Duan Yongping: Buffett sold his Intel shares? Buying General Motors is a bit puzzling; their business model isn't that great, feels like a cigar butt. But General Motors' financial data is actually quite good.
网友Q：能不能解释一下通用的数据问什么不太好？
Netizen Q: Can you explain why General Motors' data isn't that good?
网友W：汽车是差异化不大的产品？
Netizen W: Are automobiles products with little differentiation?
段永平：差异化小是个重要方面。还有就是工会也是个麻烦，成本下不来，可能10来年后又要破产一次。如果不打算拿10年的企业为何要拿10天。非常可能这个决策不是巴菲特的决策，那可以看出老巴很宽荣，但也看出老巴之后BRK的能力确实会下降。（2012－05－18）
Duan Yongping: Low differentiation is an important aspect. Also, the union is a trouble, costs cannot be reduced, and it's very likely that they will go bankrupt again in 10 years. If you don't plan to hold a company for 10 years, why hold it for 10 days? It's very possible that this decision isn't Buffett's decision, which shows that Buffett is very gracious, but it also shows that the future capabilities of BRK will indeed decline. (2012-05-18)
6. Walmart and Alibaba
网友：马云挺有意思，他曾说拿着望远镜都看不到竞争对手。他也说过淘宝最大的竞争对手是沃尔玛。我不懂什么商业模式，不过感觉沃尔玛进军电子商务模式会有很大的发展空间。我要是沃尔玛重量级人物，肯定做重要的事大举进军电子商务，两条腿走路。
Netizen: Jack Ma is quite interesting. He once said that competitor couldn't be seen even with a telescope. He also said that Taobao's biggest competitor is Walmart. I don't understand the business model, but I feel Walmart entering the e-commerce model will have great development potential. If I were a heavyweight figure at Walmart, I would definitely make a big move into e-commerce and take a dual-pronged approach.
段永平：沃尔玛很难形成威胁，因为他们实在是太成功了。（2010－05－15）
Duan Yongping: It's very difficult for Walmart to pose a threat because they are just too successful. (2010-05-15)
网友：沃尔玛自己也搞电商，是不是和诺基亚搞智能手机一个意思？
Netizen: Walmart also does e-commerce. Is it similar to Nokia's foray into smartphones?
段永平：沃尔玛做电商像当年康培做直销。电商营业额还不到2%。（2010－05－15）
Duan Yongping: Walmart's e-commerce turnover is less than 2%, like Compal's direct sales back in the day. (2010-05-15)
7. 微软
7. Microsoft
01. 网友：看了wp7的发布会，没啥新特色，不知道微软的工程师们究竟在捣鼓什么。如果找这样的态势下去，微软在移动互联网领域真的危险了。
01. Netizen: After watching the WP7 launch event, there's nothing new, I wonder what Microsoft's engineers are really up to. If they continue in this manner, Microsoft is really in danger in the field of mobile internet.
段总前面对诺基亚的点评很经典，一句话就把诺基亚的迷失指出来了。段总能不能说说微软呢？
Mr. Duan's comments on Nokia earlier were classic, pinpointing Nokia's dilemma in just one sentence. Can Mr. Duan share your thoughts on Microsoft?
段永平：成功是失败之母。微软陷在过去的成功模式中出不来，估计以后也很难出来了。（2010－10－14）
Duan Yongping: Success is the mother of failure. Microsoft is stuck in its past successful model and probably will find it very difficult to break free in the future. (2010-10-14)
网友：为什么说微软陷在过去的成功模式中，出不来呢？能否多说说证据呢，我觉得其实比结论更重要的是判断主要依据和重要细节。
Netizen: Why do you say that Microsoft is stuck in its past successful model and can't break free? Could you provide more evidence? I think the main basis and important details are more important than the conclusion.
段永平：比如微软的手机软件就要收费，还挺贵，不收又不行，因为和别的栓在一起的。可Google得是免费的，大多数手机制造商做smart phone最后可能都会用Google的，我猜。（2010－10－15）
Duan Yongping: For example, Microsoft's mobile software has to be paid for, and it's quite expensive. Not charging is not an option because it's tied to other things. But Google's is free, and most smartphone manufacturers might end up using Google's, I guess. (2010-10-15)
引用：盖茨：微软生产自有品牌平板电脑是正确之举
Quote: Gates: Microsoft Producing Own-Brand Tablet is the Right Move
微软（微博）创始人比尔•盖茨（Bill Gates）称，微软生产自己的平板电脑是正确之举，并指出Windows 8将会“杀死”传统PC（个人计算机）
Microsoft founder Bill Gates stated that Microsoft producing its own tablet is the right move and pointed out that Windows 8 will "kill off" traditional PCs (personal computers).
段永平：😄（2012－07－04）
Duan Yongping: 😄 (2012-07-04)
8. 公用行业
8. Public Utilities Industry
网友：我想请问垄断的生意，如自来水公司等，算不算好的生意模式呢？如果算，好像没发现有伟大的自来水公司？是不是垄断容易产生不思进取、管理混乱等因素？
Netizen: I want to ask about monopolistic businesses, such as water supply companies, whether they are considered a good business model? If so, it seems that there are no great water supply companies to be found. Does monopolization easily lead to complacency and chaotic management?
段永平：自来水公司的“垄断”是在很多限制条件下的垄断，多有关民生，属于公共事业，不被允许赚大钱。（2015－04－11）
Duan Yongping: The "monopoly" of water supply companies is a monopoly under many restrictive conditions, mostly related to people's livelihoods, and it belongs to public utilities, not allowed to make big profits. (2015-04-11)
网友：10月6日我去上海参加了长期资本管理论坛，主持问了一个很有意思的问题：如何寻找企业的护城河？仁者见仁，智者见智：1. 一个央企电力行业的人认为是垄断（这个我不认可） 2. 有人认为是有提价能力的品牌如喜诗糖果 3. 低成本如沃尔玛、B夫人的家具公司（这个我不认同） 4. 顾客的转换成本……不知大道对此有何心得？
Netizen: On October 6th, I attended the Long-Term Capital Management Forum in Shanghai and the host asked a very interesting question: How to find a company's moat? Opinions vary: 1. A person from a state-owned enterprise in the power industry believes it's a monopoly (I don't agree with this) 2. Some believe it's brands with pricing power like Hershey's candies 3. Low-cost operators like Walmart, Mrs. B's furniture company (I don't agree with this) 4. Customer switching costs... I wonder if Mr. Duan has any insights on this?
段永平：垄断不算还有啥能算？不过行政垄断不是好的商业行为而已。（2011－10－08）
Duan Yongping: If monopoly doesn't count then what does? It's just that administrative monopoly is not good business conduct. (2011-10-08)
ps：寻找企业的竞争优势（护城河）可以包括品牌定价能力、低成本运营以及垄断地位等因素。而公共事业领域的垄断通常受到限制条件的约束，不被允许赚取巨额利润。