2. 苹果
2. Apple
网友：你说你在2011年一月想明白了苹果，最重要的是想通了没有乔布斯的苹果到底是什么。能分享一下吗？因为我想了很长时间都没想痛。苹果难道不是“冲浪型”企业吗？他们如何能保证时刻停留在浪尖上？
Netizen: You said that in January 2011, you understood Apple and, most importantly, what Apple without Steve Jobs really is. Can you share it? Because I've been thinking about it for a long time and haven't figured it out. Isn't Apple a "surfing" type of company? How do they manage to stay at the forefront all the time?
段永平：苹果已经有了很好的生意模式！为什么是很好的生意模式这行里的人都知道。（2012－01－20）
Duan Yongping: Apple already has a very good business model! Why it's a good business model, everyone in this industry knows. (2012-01-20)
01. 博文：One apple a day keeps the doctor away. （2011－01－22）
01. Blog post: One apple a day keeps the doctor away. (2011-01-22)
段永平：说说我喜欢苹果的一些理由。这不是论文，想到就说，没有重点和先后顺序。
Duan Yongping: Let me talk about some reasons why I like Apple. This is not an essay, just saying what comes to mind, without any particular order.
1. 苹果的产品确实把用户体验或消费者导向做到极致了，对手在相当长的时间里难以超越甚至接近（对喜欢苹果的用户而言）。
1. Apple's products have truly taken user experience or consumer orientation to the extreme, making it difficult for competitors to surpass or even come close (for users who love Apple).
2. 苹果的平台建立起来了，或者说生意模式或者说护城河已经形成了（光软件一年都几十亿的收入了）。
2. Apple has established its platform, or you can say the business model or moat has formed (with software alone generating billions in revenue per year).
3. 苹果单一产品的模式实际上是我们这个行业里的最高境界，以前我大概只见到任天堂做到过（Sony的游戏产品类似）。
3. Apple's single-product model is actually the highest level in our industry. Previously, I only saw Nintendo achieve this (similar to Sony's gaming products).
单一产品的模式有非常多的好处：
The single-product model has many advantages:
a. 可以集中人力物力将产品做得更好。比较一下iPhone系列和诺基亚系列（今年要推出40个品种）。苹果产品的单位开发成本是非常低的，但单个产品的开发费却是最高的。
a. It allows for concentrated manpower and resources to make the product better. Compare the iPhone series with Nokia's series (which will introduce 40 varieties this year). Apple's unit development cost is very low, but the development cost per individual product is the highest.
b. 材料成本低且质量好，大规模带来的效益。苹果的成本控制也是做到极致的，同样功能的硬件恐怕没人能达到苹果的成本。
b. Low material costs with good quality, benefiting from economies of large scale. Apple's cost control is also exceptional. No one else can achieve Apple's cost for the same functionality hardware.
c. 渠道成本低。呵呵，不是同行的不一定能明白这话到底有什么份量（同行也未必明白），我是20年前从任天堂那里学会的。那时很多做游戏机的都很喜欢做很多品种，最后下场都不太好。
c. Low channel costs. Heh heh, those who are not in the same industry may not understand the significance of this statement (even those in the same industry may not understand). I learned this 20 years ago from Nintendo. At that time, many companies making game consoles liked to produce a wide variety of products, but it didn't end well for them.
4. 苹果的营销也是做到极致了，连广告费都比同行低很多，卖的价钱却往往很好。
4. Apple's marketing is taken to the extreme, with advertising costs often much lower than its competitors, yet it sells at a good price.
5. 苹果的产品处在一个巨大并还有巨大成长的市场里。
5. Apple's products are in a huge and still growing market.
a. 智能手机市场有多大？你懂的！
a. How big is the smartphone market? You know it!
b. pad市场有多大？你也会懂的。
b. How big is the tablet market? You will also understand.
总而言之，我认为苹果现在其实还处在其成长的早期，应该还有很大的空间。扣掉现今的话，苹果的今年的未来pe只有12－13倍啊，明年可能要到10以下了。当然，以上我说的这些点中的任何一点的改变都可能或多或少地改变苹果，如果有苹果的股票的话，就要留心这些变化了。
In summary, I believe that Apple is still in its early stages of growth and has a lot of potential. If we exclude the present, Apple's future P/E ratio for this year is only 12-13 times, and it may drop below 10 next year. Of course, any change in any of the points I mentioned could potentially alter Apple's trajectory to some extent. If you hold Apple stocks, you should pay attention to these changes.
我认为如果Jobs如果真请长假的话，在相当长的时间里对苹果的业务不会有大影响。（2011－01－22）
I believe that if Jobs were to take a long leave, it wouldn't have a major impact on Apple's business for quite some time. (2011-01-22)
网友：段总对苹果的顿悟，说明了经历在对公司理解上会变成财富，哈哈。段总无论是早年的小霸王时期，还是步步高时期，或者最近的OPPO手机时期，其实从事的工作和苹果公司没有本质的区别，都是消费类电子，都是了解消费者需求做精品，对产品的追求和理解是一致的，所以段总很快就能看到苹果的“厉害”之处，这个和大部分投资人通过财报、预测所理解的公司前景是不太一样的。所以段总说的买股票就是买公司，对于公司理解的“度”上，把自己放到经营者的位置去思考，有些时候不得不说是需要一些“机缘”的。看段总苹果的仓位貌似提高不少，是因为最近一段时间看苹果看得更明白的原因？看《乔布斯传》最大的体会，乔布斯是一个非常厉害的产品经理，除了做出优秀的产品，还搭建了优秀的平台，失去乔布斯的苹果，在单品的设计能力和惊艳程度上是否会衰退，我不是很能理解。段总对于苹果的判断，是因为乔布斯所搭建产品平台优异的巨大惯性延续，还是其他？
Netizen: Mr. Duan's insights into Apple demonstrate that gaining an understanding of a company can become wealth, haha. Whether it was during the era of the Subor in the early years, or the BBK period, or even the recent period of OPPO smartphones, the work involved is essentially no different from Apple - consumer electronics, understanding consumer needs to create quality products. The pursuit and understanding of the products are consistent. Therefore, Mr. Duan quickly recognizes the "power" of Apple, which is different from the company's prospects understood by most investors through financial reports and forecasts. So when Mr. Duan says buying stocks is buying companies, in terms of the "angle" on understanding the company, putting oneself in the position of an operator, sometimes it requires some "opportunity." It seems that Mr. Duan has increased his position in Apple recently because he understands Apple more clearly? The biggest impression from reading "Steve Jobs' biography" is that Steve Jobs was an extremely capable product manager. Apart from creating excellent products, he also built an excellent platform. Will Apple, without Steve Jobs, decline in terms of design capability and stunningness? I don't quite understand it. Mr. Duan's judgment on Apple is because of the continued excellent inertia of the product platform built by Steve Jobs, or is it something else?
段永平：绝大多数是去年年初和中间有个时期买的，一月21号option到期后出来不少钱（主要还是put卖出过期了），本来是想买bac的，结果近期bac涨了很多，就都放aapl了。在没有其他目标的前提下今天的苹果依然便宜，但没以前便宜了。
Duan Yongping: The majority of my purchases were made in early last year and during a period in the middle. After the options expired on January 21st, I made quite a bit of money (mainly from selling expired put options). Originally, I wanted to buy BAC, but recently it has risen a lot, so I shifted everything to AAPL. Under the premise of having no other targets, Apple today is still cheap, but not as cheap as before.
有些东西进步到一定程度后其实后面的变化就不大了，比如汽车发动机30－40年代和现在其实没本质差别。有些国家（虽然我们很多人看不上）40年代就能造航空母舰，我们现在依然不行，说明由于某些原因，时间有时候帮不上大忙。
Once something progresses to a certain extent, the subsequent changes are not significant. For example, there is no fundamental difference between car engines from the 1930s-1940s and now. Some countries (although many of us may look down on them) were able to build aircraft carriers in the 1940s, and we still can't do that now. It shows that for some reason, time doesn't always help.
苹果最厉害的是现在这个平台以及生意模式，以我的水平我看不出谁能打破他。当然有很多以为水平比我高的人非说别人可以，当然也有自己说自己可以打败苹果的，你看看他们像吗？
What makes Apple so powerful is its current platform and business model. With my level of expertise, I can't see anyone who can break it. Of course, there are many people with higher expertise than me who claim others can, and there are also those who claim they themselves can defeat Apple. Just take a look at them, do they seem capable to you?
也许，能打败苹果的人快出生了，也许正在某个地方徘徊，但怎么看都不是现在大家知道的这些，这是个大家可以看很多年的故事。（2012－01－29）
Perhaps, the person who can defeat Apple will be born soon, or maybe they are currently lingering somewhere. But no matter how you look at it, it's not the ones that everyone knows right now. This is a story that we can watch for many years. (2012-01-29)
02. 网友：Andriod（安卓）手机会是苹果的一个比较大的威胁，现在的Android的手机已经不比苹果的差多少了。苹果的强大在于有一个统一的平台，这是Android所没有的。
02. Netizen: Android phones will be a big threat to Apple. The current Android phones are not much worse than Apple's. Apple's strength lies in having a unified platform, which Android lacks.
段永平：说明你还是不明白谁是谁的威胁。（2012－01－25)
Duan Yongping: That shows you still don't understand who is the threat to whom. (2012-01-25)
网友A：这一点不太明白，我对于苹果最担心的就是安卓的竞争。虽然进入IOS（苹果系统）系统的用户不太关心安卓的变化。但是安卓的进步对于新进入IOS的用户数量有很大影响，并且安卓进步很快，那么口碑会好，而口碑对于新用户甚至老用户，影响会很大，是这样吗？
Netzen A: I don't quite understand this point. I'm most worried about Android's competition with Apple. Although users who have switched to the iOS system may not care about the changes in Android, the progress of Android has a significant impact on the number of new users entering iOS. And Android is progressing rapidly, which leads to good reputation. Reputation has a great influence on new and even old users. Is that right?
段永平：再过几年你就明白了。
Duan Yongping: You'll understand in a few more years.
网友H：谷歌的安卓和苹果iPhone的竞争关系就像大众和宝马奔驰的竞争一样，虽然都是做手机，用户群不一样。用了苹果的东西，再用安卓的，感觉就是糙，细节很粗糙。Google（谷歌）发布了Chrome浏览器的移动版本，竟然率先在苹果的平板iPad和手机iPhone上发布，安卓平台上竟然没有。这事挺有意思的，难道Google的人也知道哪个平台的用户价值更大？
Netizen H: The competition between Google's Android and Apple's iPhone is like the competition between Volkswagen and BMW or Mercedes-Benz. Although they are all in the mobile phone industry, their user bases are different. After using Apple products, using Android feels rough and lacks attention to detail. Google released the mobile version of Chrome browser first on Apple's iPad and iPhone, not on the Android platform. This is interesting. Does it mean Google knows which platform has more user value?
段永平：苹果到是像卖车的，一年出一款。三星像诺基亚，结局可能也像，不信过10－15年再看。
Duan Yongping: Apple is like a car manufacturer, releasing a new model every year. Samsung is like Nokia, and the outcome may be similar. Believe it or not, wait and see in 10-15 years.
网友X：1. 三星、HTC一直搞机海战术，其实大部分厂商都是这招，苹果出来后，这招不灵了。HTC今年出的ONE系列，说不玩壳了，真能转性么?
Netizen X: 1. Samsung and HTC have always used a strategy of flooding the market with their phones. Most manufacturers use this tactic, but it didn't work when Apple entered the market. Will HTC's ONE series, which claims not to focus on hardware design, really be able to change?
2. 苹果真是独步江湖了。安卓阵营跟苹果的差距，不是简单的机子外表问题，是整个商业模式和生态系统的问题。如果专注研发ROM，把消费者体验提升有戏么？魅族小米都是刷ROM起家，OPPO的ROM和UI也有独到之处，一些细节让人觉得贴心，还有老罗也说要专注研究ROM，当然ROM毕竟要受制于Google（谷歌）的进展。无解？
2. Apple is truly unique in the industry. The gap between the Android camp and Apple is not just about the appearance of the devices, but also about the entire business model and ecosystem. If they focus on developing ROMs is it possible to improve consumer experience? Meizu and Xiaomi started with custom ROMs, OPPO's ROM and UI have unique features, and some details are user-friendly. Even Luo Yonghao said he wants to focus on researching ROMs. Of course, ROMs are still influenced by Google's progress. Is there no solution?
3. 我发现国内很多用iPhone的只是觉得很漂亮很炫或者纯粹是炫耀性消费，iPhone的威力他们恐怕一小半都没用到。特别是女孩子，没几个用同步功能，装备好的应用，好多只是玩玩别人帮忙装上的游戏。这类“傻瓜式”很多人在抢吧，像当年网络爆发时的装机系统导航网页等。
3. I've noticed that many iPhone users in China use it because they think it looks cool or for the sake of showing off. They probably haven't fully utilized the power of the iPhone. Especially girls, not many of them use synchronization functions or install well-equipped applications. Many of them just play games installed by others. Many people are blindly following this "foolish" trend, similar to the time when online navigation and system guide websites were popular during the internet boom.
段永平：1. 人大概是不会变的。
Duan Yongping: 1. People probably won't change.
2. 苹果以外的市场依然很大，而且上升空间也很大。专注于用户体验的企业总是会走得远一些的。
2. The market outside of Apple is still significant, and there is plenty of room for growth. Companies that focus on user experience will always go further.
3. 我也发现很多人还没有发现iPhone的很多好处就已经很喜欢iPhone了，所以觉得iPhone的潜力还很大。
3. I've also noticed that many people haven't discovered many advantages of the iPhone but still love it, so I believe there is still great potential for the iPhone.
网友C：这么久了看了你的评论才有一点明白苹果：“即使其他公司生产出了在技术上比苹果产品还要先进一些的产品，在惯性思维上人们也未必认可，再说了，苹果产品目前达到的技术高度也使其他公司很难造出比苹果产品有显著性先进差异的产品了。”
Netizen C: All this time, after reading your comments I finally understand a bit about Apple: "Even if other companies produce products that are technically more advanced than Apple's, people may not necessarily recognize it due to their ingrained thinking. Besides, Apple's current technological heights make it difficult for other companies to create products with significant advanced differences compared to Apple's."
是否像微软当初的286、316、奔一、奔二、如今的双核等？今天没有乔布斯的苹果依然在“小步快跑”？
Is it similar to Microsoft's earlier 286, 316, Pentium, Pentium II, and now dual-core chips? Even without Steve Jobs, is Apple still continues its "incremental innovation"?
段永平：苹果厉害的不仅仅是硬件，这是所有其他竞争对手没辙的地方。三星顶多不过是新的诺基亚而已，对苹果没有威胁。苹果的business model实在是强大，其他的“对手”已经难以撼动苹果了。（2012－02－05）
Duan Yongping: Apple's strength is not just in hardware; that's where all the competitors are helpless. At best, Samsung is just a new Nokia and poses no threat to Apple. Apple's business model is truly powerful, and other "competitors" have a hard time shaking Apple's position. (2012-02-05)
ps: 无论是对于苹果还是安卓，提供优质的用户体验都是取得竞争优势的关键因素。品牌忠诚度是一个重要的因素，尤其是在移动科技行业。一旦用户建立了对某个品牌的忠诚，他们可能会持续选择该品牌的产品，即使有其他更先进的产品出现。