01. 网友：段大哥很多次谈到生意模式的重要性。那么生意模式和投资的确定性是怎么样一个关系呢？（2013－04－03）
01. Netizen: Mr. Duan always emphasizes the importance of business models. What is the relationship between a good business model and investment certainty?
段永平：1. 生意模式越好，投资的确定性越高或者叫风险越低；
Duan Yongping: 1. The better the business model, the higher the investment certainty or the lower the risk.
2. 见第一条；
2. See the first point;
3. 见第一条；
3. See the first point;
4. 见第一条。（2013－03－31）
4. See the first point. (2013-03-31)
02. 网友：首先看生意模式！最亮的指路明灯。
02. Netizen: First of all, look at the business model! It's the brightest guiding light.
段永平：看到这句话说明你有悟性哈。这句话可能值一辈子的午餐。（2012－04－06）
Duan Yongping: Seeing this sentence shows you have wisdom. This sentence may be worth a lifetime of lunch. (2012-04-06)
03. 网友：请教一下段哥，于小资金的投资者而言，对生意模式的挑选是不是可以不那么严苛？
03. Netizen: I want to ask Mr. Duan, can investors with small capital be less strict in selecting business models?
段永平：你的想法其实也是维持小资金的比较有效的办法。（2017－08－27）
Duan Yongping: Your idea is actually an effective way to maintain small capital. (2017-08-27)
04. 网友：希望老段多教教我们研判企业的知识。
04. Netizen: I hope Mr. Duan can teach us more about how to judge companies.
段永平：我教不了，每个人都只能靠自己悟。我只能偶尔说点自己的体会，相对于说说盲人摸象自己摸到的那部分，未必就一定对。或者说只在一定的范围内有道理。（2011－01－23）
Duan Yongping: I cannot teach you; everyone can only rely on their own understanding. I can only occasionally share my own experiences, and what I say may not necessarily be correct, compared to blindly touching the elephant, what I share may only make sense within a certain range. (2011-01-23)
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点评的行业和公司：
1. 贵州茅台
2. 苹果
3. 苏宁、携程
4. 阿里巴巴
5. 汽车行业
7. 微软
8. 公用行业
9. 银行
10. 啤酒行业、红酒
11. 百货行业
12. 新零售
13. 脸书
14. 诺基亚与三星
15. 塑胶、五金、电子零件公司
16. 高端，低端商业模式
17. 联想
18. 航海业、航空业
19. 富士康、OEM（代工）
20. 黑电，白电，厨电
21. 淘宝模式和京东模式
22. （eBay和亚马逊）淘宝模式
23. 高负债商业模式
24. 重资产行业
25. 对冲基金
26. 拼多多
27. 视频
28. 分众传媒
29. 宁德时代
30. 晨光文具
Industry and Company Reviews:
1. Guizhou Maotai
2. Apple
3. Suning, Ctrip
4. Alibaba
5. Automotive Industry
6. Walmart and Alibaba
7. Microsoft
8. Utilities Industry
9. Banking
10. Beer Industry, Red Wine
11. Department Store Industry
12. New Retail
13. Facebook
14. Nokia and Samsung
15. Plastic, Hardware, Electronic Component Companies
16. High-end, Low-end Business Models
17. Lenovo
18. Shipping Industry, Aviation Industry
19. Foxconn, OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer)
20. Black Appliances, White Appliances, Kitchen Appliances
21. Taobao Model and JD.com Model
22. (eBay and Amazon) Taobao Model
23. High Debt Business Model
24. Heavy Asset Industries
25. Hedge Funds
26. Pinduoduo
27. Video
28. Focus Media
29. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL)
30. M&G Stationery
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1. 贵州茅台
1. Guizhou Maotai
01. 网友：段总：酒这个东西对人体好像只有诸多坏的影响甚至造成损害，没多少有益因素，不像可口可乐能补充人体所需要的水分。造酒是否是在做正确的事？
01. Netizen: Mr. Duan, alcohol seems to have mostly negative effects on the human body and can even cause harm, with few beneficial factors, unlike Coca-Cola which can provide the body with necessary hydration. Is producing liquor doing the right thing?
段永平：呵呵，难道你觉得所有人都应该出家？酒给人带来快乐，如果你的字典里有“快乐”，你会明白的。（2013－03－19）
Duan Yongping: Hehe, do you think everyone should become a monk? Alcohol brings joy to people's lives. If "happiness" is in your dictionary, you will understand. (2013-03-19)
网友：快乐！一直在思考，为啥酒在人类几千年的历史中经久不衰，喝酒是为了什么？现在突然有了答案。
Netizen: Happiness! I've been thinking all along, why has alcohol endured for thousands of years in human history? What is drinking alcohol for? Now I suddenly have an answer.
02. 网友：不同白酒口感不一样，有用户粘性。喜欢喝茅台的，不会因为茅台涨价而买五粮液。另外高端白酒的跟风涨价，也许是因为他是高端消费品，价格越高，请客送礼时越显气派。
02. Netizen: Different types of Baijiu have different tastes, and there are users who are loyal to a specific brand. Those who like Maotai won't switch to Wuliangye just because Maotai's price goes up. Furthermore, the price hikes of high-end Baijiu might be because it is a luxury consumer product. The higher the price, the more impressive it is when offering it as a gift or treating guests.
家电是大众消费品，而且以功能取胜，用户粘性要差一些，谁价格便宜，就买谁的。同时，我想也与行业生态有关系。同样是家电行业，彩电行业就比冰箱更喜欢打价格战。90年代彩电行业老大长虹就率先进行价格战，挑起恶性竞争，而空调老大格力却没有这么做。
Home appliances are mass consumer products, and they mainly compete based on functionality. User loyalty is relatively weaker, and people will buy from whoever offers a cheaper price. At the same time, I think it is also related to the industry ecosystem. In the same home appliance industry, the TV industry prefers price wars more than the refrigerator industry. In the 1990s, Changhong, the leader in the TV industry, was the first to initiate a price war and sparked intense competition, while Gree, the leader in the air conditioning industry, did not do the same.
段永平：价格战一般在产品化很小时容易发生。酒是有很大差异化的东西，至少感觉如此。See' candy也是有很大差异化的产品。
Duan Yongping: Price wars often occur when the product differentiation is small. Liquor is something that has significant differentiation, at least it feels that way. See's Candy is also a product with significant differentiation.
电子消费品，尤其是成熟的电子消费品的趋势往往是差异化越来越小，尤其在专利保护比较弱的国家里会更明显。（2011－01－14）
Electronic consumer products, especially mature ones, tend to have less differentiation, especially in countries with weaker patent protection. (2011-01-14)
03. 网友：【贵州茅台：2013年第一季净利润同比增21.01%】
03. Netizen: [Guizhou Maotai: Q1 2013 net profit increased by 21.01% YoY]
网友：净利润是算出来的，净利润是增长了只是预收款50. 9亿同比下降到28.6亿。
Netizen: Net profit is calculated, and although net profit has increased, prepaid expenses have decreased from 50.9 billion to 28.6 billion.
段永平:投资最重要的还是看生意模式，不然的话大家就很容易只见树木不见森林，全部盯着眼前这一个月一个季度的波动来决定买卖的行为，这样是很难做投资的。（2013－04－18）
Duan Yongping: The most important thing in investment is to look at the business model. Otherwise, it's easy for everyone to only see the trees and not the forest, focusing solely on the fluctuations of the current month or quarter to make buying and selling decisions. It's difficult to do investment that way. (2013-04-18)
04. 网友：由于我也重仓茅台，特别是昨天跌停的过程中毫不犹豫地冲进去了。反三公把年份酒给反没了，我很认同。很多调研的人把自己的调研结果写出来，与你判断一致（你是不是也看了这些信息并认可？），市场上还有一个大疑问：茅台的预收款下降很厉害！我认为，预收是之前就确认完的收入，虽然下降厉害，（也就是现在经销商打款不强烈），但销售依然能实现稳定，尤其是在年份酒滞销的情况下完成的。销售稳定才是基础。其次，公司开放经销权，有利于经销的竞争，更有利于消费者买到优惠，货真的好酒！所以，从今后10年开，基本上还是可以安心睡觉的！至于收益能到多少，那是天知道的事情！
04. Netizen: Because I also have a large position in Maotai, especially during yesterday's limit-down, I rushed in without hesitation. I agree with the anti-corruption campaign causing the disappearance of gift wines. Many researchers publish their research results, which are consistent with your judgment (have you also looked at this information and agreed?). There is still a big question in the market: Maotai's decrease in prepaid expenses is substantial! I believe that prepaid expenses are previously confirmed income, and although the decrease is significant (meaning dealers are not making strong payments now), sales can still be achieved steadily, especially in the case of slow sales of gift wines. Stable sales are the foundation. Secondly, the company opens up distribution rights, which benefits competition among distributors and allows consumers to purchase discounted and genuine good wines! Therefore, in the next 10 years, we can basically sleep peacefully! As for how much profit can be made, only time will tell!
段永平：如果人们明白大部分生意实际上是没啥预收款的时候，人们会很喜欢茅台的。下降表示还有，只是过去太难拿到货，所以很多人愿意付预售款，现在不太需要了。
Duan Yongping: If people understand that most businesses actually don't have much prepaid expenses, they will like Maotai very much. The decrease indicates there is still demand, but it was just difficult to obtain the product in the past, so many people were willing to pay in advance. They don't need to do that as much now.
网友：茅台2012年有1787万应收账款，这对茅台应该没有影响吧！不都说茅台是先付款再发货，而且去了要排队。
Netizen: Maotai had 17.87 million accounts receivable in 2012, which shouldn't affect Maotai, right? Isn't it said that Maotai receives payment before delivery, and there are queues to buy it?
段永平：一千多万的应收可能是某种特殊情况，但相对总的营业额而言可以忽略。（2013－04－02）
Duan Yongping: The accounts receivable of more than 10 million might be a special case, but compared to the total revenue, it can be ignored. (2013-04-02)
05. 网友：2013年12月12日茅台召开了媒体见面会，会上茅台董事长袁仁国透露了一个数据，说“茅台酒应该说前几年一直非常紧张，但是茅台的库房现在有120多栋，每栋库存有6层楼，我们储存了接近14万吨基酒。”14吨酒按500算就是1400亿，现在的价怎么算也不亏。
05. Netizen: On December 12, 2013, Maotai held a media briefing, during which Maotai Chairman Yuan Renguo revealed a data point, saying, "Maotai liquor has been very tight in the past few years, but Maotai's warehouses now have over 120 buildings, each building has 6 floors of inventory, and we have stored nearly 140,000 tons of base liquor." If 14 tons of liquor is priced at 500 yuan which means 140 billion, it won't incur any losses no matter how you calculate it.
段永平：茅台这个生意和我们的消费电子比较起来，最大的差别可能就在库存上。我们这个行业的库存几乎就是垃圾，茅台几乎就是个宝。（2013－12－12）
Duan Yongping: The biggest difference between Maotai's business and our consumer electronics industry may lie in inventory. Our industry's inventory is almost garbage, while Maotai is almost like treasure. (2013-12-12)
06. 网友：茅台的存货每年都增值（13万吨呀），没有长期负债，而预收款却不少，这样的生意模式确实少有。
06. Netizen: Maotai's inventory appreciates every year (130,000 tons), with no long-term liabilities, but there are also significant prepayments. This business model is indeed rare.
段永平：酒都如此。
Duan Yongping: This applies to the liquor industry in general.
07. 网友：您曾经说过如果认真反腐，茅台会怎么样？现今从各方面看这次反腐应该是动真格的。您怎么看？
07. Netizen: You once said that if anti-corruption efforts were taken seriously, how would Maotai be affected? From various perspectives, it seems that the current anti-corruption campaign is serious. What is your opinion?
段永平：难道你认为我们以前的都不是动真格的？茅台和腐败没有直接关系，但减少公款消费确实会减少很多消费，短期内应该也会影响到茅台以及很多东西的销量。但公款消费应该不是茅台的大头。茅台之所以被很多人喜欢是因为茅台是很特别的好酒，喜欢喝的人依然会喜欢喝的，只是以后用公款喝的机会少了而已。茅台如果短期销量下降些，那年份酒的产量就可以提高了？还真是很少见不怕有库存的生意模式。（2013－02－13）
Duan Yongping: Do you think our previous efforts were not serious? Maotai and corruption are not directly related, but reducing official expenses will indeed reduce a lot of consumption. In the short term, it should also affect the sales of Maotai and many other things. However, official expenses should not be the main source of Maotai's revenue. Many people like Maotai because it is a special good liquor. People who enjoy drinking it will continue to do so, just with fewer opportunities to use public funds for it. If the short-term sales of Maotai decline, the production of vintage liquor can be increased instead. It's quite rare to have a business model that is not afraid of having inventory. (2013-02-13)
08. 网友：有关于白酒想请教下，就是大概5年前也看过茅台，当时感觉就是单价上涨有限制，只能从销量上看，但销量又受制于产量，看了几篇文章都说是很难复制生产环境，这样就把它放入低增长的类别了。现在往前看，16年产量和销量都还平稳，不知怎么到了16年产量大幅增长，看组成估计是其他系列酒的大幅增长（没有15年对比），17年上半年产量增长更为迅猛，想请教段总的就是飞天茅台每年产量现在能大幅增长吗？如果是的话，飞天茅台可以复制环境吗？如果不是，那茅台销售额的增长中，除了其他系列酒销售额增长外，那飞天茅台的销量增长主要是多销售了五年前的存货吗？因为只喝过一次茅台，也没去过茅台镇，确实感觉看不懂。
08. Netizen: Regarding Baijiu (Chinese white liquor), I would like to ask about it. About 5 years ago, I also looked into Maotai. At that time, it seemed that there were limitations on price increases, and the growth could only come from sales volume. However, sales volume is constrained by production capacity, and several articles mentioned that replicating the production environment is difficult, which categorized it as low growth. Looking at the present, the production and sales volumes of 2016 remained stable. I'm not sure how, but in 2016, the production volume increased significantly, as indicated by the composition of other series of liquor (no comparison to 2015). In the first half of 2017, the production volume grew even more rapidly. I would like to ask Mr. Duan if Maotai's annual production volume can now increase significantly? If so, can the production environment of Maotai Feitian be replicated? If not, in the growth of Maotai's sales, besides the growth in sales of other series of liquor, is the main increase in the sales volume of Maotai Feitian due to selling the inventory from five years ago? Because I have only tasted Maotai once and have not been to Maotai Town, I really don't understand it.
段永平：茅台的生意模式好，别的你自己慢慢看吧。（2017－11－24）
Duan Yongping: Maotai has a good business model. You can slowly figure out the rest yourself. (2017-11-24)
网友：是的，就凭存货还能越久越值钱来说，这世上就没几个产品比得了，况且还有非自身原因的限价、飞天产量有可能因为技术进步或者其他方面原因增加，而飞天销量只要产量能配合的话翻个几倍很容易，这样的公司确属凤毛麟角。个人体验是虽然平均几年才喝一次白酒，而唯一喝过的一次茅台前面还喝了二锅头，那反差就是天上地下。还有就是白酒品牌值钱很重要的原因就是白酒的消费群体忠诚度很高，在自身能长期消费的价位内，对某品牌的忠诚度超过了很多行业，这个很大程度应该是口味、口感甚至是酒文化等一系列差异化造成的。
Netizen: Yes, based on the fact that the inventory becomes more valuable over time, there are few products in the world that can compare. Moreover, there are external factors like price controls, and the production of Feitian could potentially increase due to technological advancements or other reasons. As long as the production capacity can keep up, the sales volume of Feitian Maotai can easily multiply several times over. Such a company is indeed rare. From my personal experience, although I only drink Baijiu every few years, the only time I had Maotai, I had also drunk Er Guo Tou before, and the difference was like night and day. Another important reason why the brand value of Baijiu is high is because the loyalty of Baijiu consumers is very strong. Within their price range, their loyalty to a certain brand surpasses many other industries. This is largely due to differences in taste, mouthfeel, and even alcohol culture.
网友：茅台的优点太多了：不怕库存、追加固定资产较少、好产品、国内的面子送礼文化，当我们普通人有能力消费时，肯定会首选茅台，如同现在的中华烟。（2013－02－18）
Netizen: Maotai has many advantages: not afraid of inventory, limited additional fixed assets, excellent products, China's culture of giving face and gifts. When ordinary people have the ability to consume, they would definitely choose Maotai, just like Zhonghua cigarettes today. (2013-02-18)
09. 网友：请教段总现在方便评价茅台吗？
09. Netizen: May I ask if Mr. Duan can currently evaluate Maotai?
段永平：茅台还是茅台，生意模式刚刚的，10年后人们还是会说10年前那个价格真不贵。（2017－12－14）
Duan Yongping: Maotai is still Maotai. Its business model is strong. In 10 years, people will still say that the prices 10 years ago were really not expensive. (2017-12-14)
10. 网友：段总，怎样才能改变茅台在中国人心中的地位啊？
10. Netizen: Mr. Duan, how can we change Maotai's position in the hearts of Chinese people?
段永平：多推一些便宜的非53度酒，包括茅台啤酒和红酒，甚至茅台米酒啥的，以及茅台矿泉水，茅台酒店，茅台手机，茅台空调，加快推出的速度，五年出厂的规矩也不要了，假酒也不管……十年后，茅台的地位就应该彻底不一样了。（2015－02－16）
Duan Yongping: Introduce more affordable non-53-degree liquors, including Maotai beer and red wine, even Maotai rice wine, Maotai mineral water, Maotai hotels, Maotai mobile phones, Maotai air conditioners. Speed up the launch, abandon the five-year rule for factory production, and don't worry about fake liquor... In ten years, Maotai's position should be completely different. (2015-02-16)