gitagz 的讨论

发布于: 雪球回复:8喜欢:0
隆成还持有吗?感觉这股没什么戏啊,我都想换股了

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2015-05-10 15:20

[很赞],总体上赞同。对于我来说,我觉得两者还是有点区别的,我定义的价值投资,股价的增长主要来源于公司的内生成长,公司长大了利润多了,股价自然上涨,风险来自于对公司前景的误判;而壳股,公司业务可能已经日趋衰落,股价上涨动力更多来自卖壳,卖资产,或庄家炒作等外部因素,而外部因素是未必发生的,即使发生其发生时间也是不定的。不管哪种方式,我都愿意选赢面大的[大笑]

兄弟,其实买壳股就是价值投资来的,它们的return及risk比蓝筹股要好,sharpe ratio 更优,钱来得更快,投资壳股和巴菲特的投资理念是一致的。巴菲特在年轻时,即50年代那时,就买了很多micro-stocks, 和今天的壳股很相似,只是壳股还带了中国特色而已。以下是巴菲特对micro-stocks的看法:

Warren Buffett made 50% plus returns in micro caps in the 1950s for his own account.

The stocks he invested in were extremely small, and extremely unknown.

A University of Kansas student asked Buffett about this in 2005:

“Question: According to a business week report published in 1999, you were quoted as saying: “It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.”…would you say the same thing today?”

Here’s Buffett’s answer:

“Yes, I would still say the same thing today. In fact, we are still earning those types of returns on some of our smaller investments. The best decade was the 1950s; I was earning 50% plus returns with small amounts of capital. I could do the same thing today with smaller amounts. It would perhaps even be easier to make that much money in today's environment because information is easier to access.

Benjamin Graham也曾就你的那个问题作出了解说:

“The chief practical difference between the defensive and the enterprising investor is that the former limits himself to large and leading companies whereas the latter will buy any stock if his judgment and his technique tell him it is sufficiently attractive…The field of secondary stocks (我想他这里指的secondary stocks 就是壳股或仙股)cannot be delimited precisely. It includes perhaps two thousand listed issues and many thousands more of unlisted ones which are not generally recognized as belonging in the category of ‘large and prosperous market leaders’…The intelligent investor can operate successfully in secondary common stocks provided he buys them only on a bargain basis.”

2015-05-10 01:31

你有没有研究过价值投资,如巴菲特等所提倡的。比较起来壳股投资似乎投机意味浓了些,多了风险和不确定性,不知你怎么看?我觉的在特定时期如现阶段炒壳可能获得超额收益,唯不知何时潮水散去,及时脱身

不算什么心得啦,只是对1225失望,另外就是1207真的很便宜,买它的时候好像PB0.2都不到,就买了,然后在股市跌的很厉害那两天就害怕起来,它没怎么跌但是也只是赌了一盘大伙是会获利止赚的就卖了。$0.5确实还是很便宜的。1207到目前还没公告入股方的身份。我觉得能入股这么大的壳也应该不小来头吧。[想一下]

2015-05-08 22:01

你换马介入时机拿捏的很不错啊,有何心得?

2015-05-08 21:58

我还拿着呢,快熬不住了,因它账上现金多之前没舍得出,走势太差,改天换马得了

我觉得还是有戏的,可以炒了别的股先,赚了钱再回来炒…

$隆成集团(01225)$ 已卖完全对它管理层失望,当时换马$上置集团(01207)$ $0.25进,$0.68出,这两天平均$0.537买回…