$PayPal(PYPL)$ PayPal 股票分析：你无法忽视的一个威胁
2024-07-03 02:31
如果你对投资 PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）感到犹豫，那是可以理解的。在拥挤且竞争激烈的金融科技领域，PayPal 很难保护其市场份额。然而，在 PayPal 股票中占有适度规模的投资组合仍然可能在长期内获得出色的回报。
My previous analysis of PayPal suggested the share price will easily reach $90. Today, in light of a well-known technology company’s intentions in the payments-processing market, I’m moderating my bullish stance. In other words, PayPal is still a great company, but it’s too risky to overload your portfolio with PayPal shares right now.
我之前对 PayPal 的分析表明，股价很容易达到 90 美元。然而，考虑到一家知名科技公司在支付处理市场上的意图，我正在调整我的看涨立场。换句话说，PayPal 仍然是一家很棒的公司，但现在过度投资 PayPal 股票太过冒险。
PayPal’s Notable New Hire
PayPal 引人注目的新任职
PayPal CEO Alex Chriss called 2024 a “transition year” for the company. As you might expect, the “transition” will include shifting PayPal’s focus toward artificial intelligence (AI) technology.PayPal 首席执行官 Alex Chriss 称 2024 年为公司的 “过渡年”。正如你所预料的那样，“过渡” 将包括将 PayPal 的重心转向人工智能（AI）技术。
That’s easier said than done, so PayPal is getting some help from a highly experienced executive. Specifically, the company appointed Srini Venkatesan as PayPal’s new chief technology officer (CTO).
这说起来容易，所以 PayPal 正在得到一位经验丰富的高管的帮助。具体来说，该公司任命 Srini Venkatesan 为 PayPal 的新首席技术官（CTO）。
Venkatesan has previous experience at Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Yahoo! and eBay(NASDAQ: EBAY). Chriss emphasized that Venkatesan’s “experience leading technology, digital transformation, and AI personalization from inside some of our largest customers and partners will be invaluable” to PayPal.
Chriss 强调，Venkatesan 在 沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）、雅虎 和 eBay（纳斯达克股票代码：EBAY）拥有丰富的经验。Chriss 强调 Venkatesan 在领导技术、数字转型和 AI 个性化方面的经验来自于一些最大的客户和合作伙伴，这对 PayPal 将是非常宝贵的。
It’s a hire that PayPal’s shareholders can celebrate. It shows that Chriss and PayPal are serious about the company’s “transition” and focus on AI-enhanced services. Hopefully, Venkatesan’s positive influence will show up in PayPal’s upcoming quarterly reports.
这是一个值得 PayPal 股东庆祝的任命。这表明 Chriss 和 PayPal 对公司的 “过渡” 和专注于 AI 增强服务非常认真。希望 Venkatesan 的积极影响将体现在 PayPal 即将发布的季度报告中。
A Major Threat to PayPal
PayPal 面临的重大威胁
Maybe you remember a time when PayPal was among a small handful of players in the payments-processing space. For a while, it seemed that old-fashioned credit-card companies were PayPal’s only real competition.也许你还记得 PayPal 曾经是支付处理领域中少数几家公司之一。有一段时间，似乎传统的信用卡公司是 PayPal 唯一真正的竞争对手。
In the 2020s, however, there’s a technology juggernaut seeking to steal PayPal’s share of the market. Of course, I’m referring to the one and only Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).
然而，在 2020 年代，有一家科技巨头试图夺取 PayPal 在市场中的份额。当然，我指的是独一无二的 苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）。
Not long ago, Barron’s reported that Apple revealed a “way to simplify transferring money through Apple Cash” at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). In particular, iPhone users who use iOS 18 “will be able to tap phones with someone else, and swap Apple Cash without having to share personal information.”
不久前，_巴伦周刊_报道称，苹果在全球开发者大会（WWDC）上展示了 “简化通过 Apple Cash 转账的方法”。特别是，使用 iOS 18 的 iPhone 用户 “将能够与他人轻触手机，交换 Apple Cash，而无需共享个人信息”。
This is a problem for PayPal that investors can’t easily ignore. Analysts certainly aren’t overlooking the competitive threats to PayPal. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts are “cautious on branded checkout competitive dynamics longer term, as mobile-based wallets continue to gain share.”
这对于 PayPal 来说是一个投资者不能轻易忽视的问题。分析师们当然没有忽视对 PayPal 的竞争威胁。例如，高盛分析师对 “品牌结账竞争动态长期持谨慎态度，因为基于手机的钱包继续获得份额”。
In a similar vein, Threadneedle founder Ann Berry is concerned that PayPal “should be winning on gaining share.” Berry and the Goldman Sachs analysts didn’t mention Apple by name in those quotes, but there’s no denying that Apple has the resources to cause ongoing competitive problems for PayPal.
同样，Threadneedle 创始人 Ann Berry 担心 PayPal“应该在获得份额上取得胜利”。Berry 和高盛分析师在这些评论中没有直接提到苹果，但不可否认苹果有能力给 PayPal 造成持续的竞争问题。
PayPal Stock: Still a Good Value but Be Careful
PayPal 股票：仍然是一个不错的价值，但要小心
With a GAAP trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.66x, PayPal certainly isn’t overvalued. Plus, PayPal and Chriss are making a smart move by hiring technology-industry veteran Venkatesan.以 14.66 倍的 GAAP 滚动 12 个月市盈率来看，PayPal 股票肯定没有被高估。此外，PayPal 和 Chriss 通过聘请科技行业资深人士 Venkatesan 正在做出明智的举措。
On the other hand, I’m reluctant to go full-on bullish about PayPal now. The Apple threat will be a serious, ongoing issue for PayPal.
另一方面，我现在不愿意完全看涨 PayPal。苹果的威胁将是 PayPal 的一个严重且持续的问题。
Therefore, investors should mitigate their risk by only holding a small portfolio position in PayPal stock. Furthermore, for diversification’s sake, it’s not a terrible idea to balance out your PayPal share position with some Apple stock.
因此，投资者应通过持有少量的 PayPal 股票来降低风险。此外，为了多样化，将你的 PayPal 股票头寸与一些苹果股票相平衡并不是一个坏主意。