罗仕证券3月18日发布了对中国陶瓷（CCCL，6.42 ，-3.46% ） 的研究报告。报告分析了中国陶瓷四季度财报，称其第四季度平均售价创新高，且产能扩充计划进展顺利。罗仕证券重申了对中国陶瓷的“买入”评级，将目标价定为16.00美元。以下是报告的主要观点：
财报批平均售价创新高：中国陶瓷第四季度总收入为4250万美元，同比增长32.1%，高于我们4010万美元的预期值。这得益于增高的平均售价，由上季度25.9元人民币/平方米和我们25.8元人民币/平方米的预期价格，上升到27元人民币/平方千米。
激进的营收指导：2010年底，中国陶瓷一度手握总金额达4900万美元的积压订单，管理层预期2011年一季度销售额达到1150万平方米，高于我们的预期40万平方米。
产能扩充计划：2011年初，公司产能达到4200万平方米，管理层希望在第二季度再增加1400万平方米的产能，这再次比我们的预期高出了四分之一，给模型带来了利好消息。
对房地产商的直接销量预期会增加：管理层已经在努力增加对房地产开发商的直接销量，此举将增加公司利润率。
数据修正：为响应公司逐日攀升的销售量和利润率，我们提高了对中国陶瓷2011年收入和净利润的预期。
我们在此重申对中国陶瓷的“买入”评级和16.00美元的目标价。根据中美同行给出的贴现率预测，我们估计2011财年中国陶瓷的每股收益为2.35美元，前瞻市盈率为6.8，基于此我们将两者相乘估算出16.00美元的目标价。
CCCL: Q4 Beat on Higher ASPs; Capacity Expansion Intact
4Q10 results beat on higher ASPs. Capacity expansion in 2011 is faster than expected, providing upside to our model. We also expect more direct sales to real estate developers, improving total profitability. We are impressed by the company's cash generation and expect free cash flow in 2011.
Results beat on ASP strength - revenue was $42.5mm, up 32.1% y/y, beating our estimate of $40.1mm, driven by higher ASPs of 27RMB/sqm, up from 25.9 last quarter and our 25.8 estimate. As a result, GM of 33.4% beat our estimate by 2.9 points. Net income was $9.4mm, $1.5mm higher than our estimate. EPS was $0.58, five cents ahead of our estimate. The EPS upside was limited by higher-than-expected share count.
Guidance impressive – At the end of 2010, the company had total backlog of $49mm and management expected sales volume for 1Q11 of 11.5mm sqms, 0.4mm sqm higher than our previous projection.
Capacity expansion – At the beginning of 2011, capacity stood at 42.2mm sqm. Management expects to add 14mm sqm capacity in 2Q11, one quarter faster than expected, providing upside to our model.
Expect increase in direct sales to real estate developers – Management has strived to increase direct sales to real estate developers, given higher profit margins. That said, we expect the company to sign meaningful direct sales contracts in 2011, increasing total ASPs and profit margins.
Number revisions – We increase our revenue and net income for 2011 to reflect higher sales volumes and improving gross margin. EPS estimates are lower by a penny on higher share count from 1.8mm shares for the fulfillment of 2010 earn-out. We maintain our outlook for 2012.
We reiterate our BUY rating and $16.00 PT - Our $16.00 target is based on 6.8x our FY11 EPS estimate of $2.35, a discount to peers in the U.S and in China.