$标普500指数(.INX)$ $道琼斯指数(.DJI)$ $恐慌指数(30天)(VIX)$

股市连续第二天出现较大的盘前上涨，我不会在此新加任何新交易……首先，这些盘前上涨正在给交易者带来难以置信的风险。找到理想的止损头寸几乎是不可能的，因为交易风险要求止损幅度在10-20%之间，而这反过来需要20-40%的预期收益。在这个充满不确定性的市场上，我不指望会有这样的回报。而且，这种熊市反弹是正常的，即使你还没有触底。虽然市场对日均电晕数字和死亡人数正在下降的想法犹豫不决，但这无助于改变一个事实，即我们尚未重启经济，甚至无法理解除了已公布的两个失业救济申请数字之外的全部影响。此外，尚未公布一个GDP数据，显示其对美国经济的早期影响。然后从下周开始，盈利报告就从银行开始了。这些都是巨大的未知数，追逐4%和5%的差距，希望市场能在这一点上保持势头，对我来说将是糟糕的交易。

问题是，市场短期内不会回到历史高点。我在竞价我的时间和剩余的耐心，为时间来得到长在这个市场上。未来会有很多这样做的机会，但这些巨大的隔夜缺口是最不值得我用我的资本去追逐的，即使3/23确实标志着市场底部（我认为没有）。就像杰西·利弗莫尔说的（这里的意思是）放弃去追求世界上最完美的1/8或1/8，他们是目前为止世界上最昂贵的1/8。现在-保持耐心，我已经在这样一个时刻保持了我的投资组合在一个良好的位置，我不会为了追逐市场从这里直接回到历史高点的希望而放弃它。

Second straight day where there is a massive gap higher in the stock market, and I'm not putting any new long setups out there. "WHY?" You ask....For one, these gaps are making create an incredible amount of risk for traders to play off of. Finding ideal stop-loss placements becomes nearly impossible because the risk on the trade requires stops anywhere from 10-20%, which in return requires 20-40% expected gains. In this market of uncertainty, I don't expect those kind of returns. Also, these kinds of bear market rallies are normal to experience, even when you haven't hit a bottom in the market. While the market is hung up on the idea that the Corona numbers and death toll are decreasing on the daily, it doesn't do anything to change the fact that we have yet to restart the economy or even understand the full impact beyond just the two jobless claims numbers that have been released. Also, there has yet to be a GDP number released showing the early effects it has had on the US economy. And then starting next week, the earnings reports kicks off with the banks. These are massive unknowns, and to chase after 4 and 5 percent gaps up, hoping that the market can sustain the momentum at this point would be bad trading on my part.

Here's the thing, the market isn't going back to all-time highs anytime soon. I'm bidding my time and remaining patient for the time that comes to get long again on this market. There's going to be tons of opportunities in the future to do that, but these massive overnight gaps are the least desirable ones to chase after with my capital, even if 3/23 did mark a bottom in the market (which I don't think it did). Like Jesse Livermore said, (paraphrasing here) - give up on trying to catch the perfect bottom 1/8 or top 1/8 in the world - they are by far the most expensive 1/8's in the world. For now - remain patient, I've kept my portfolio in a good position for such a moment as this, and I'm not going to blow it chasing after the hope that the market is going straight back to all-time highs from here.