","canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"sybd","type":"1","intro":null,"url":"","location":"","description":"借鉴智者,理解周期,分享智慧和折现认知。","id":9656826842,"status":1,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":314,"recommend":null,"screen_name":"MA200","verified_type":1,"verified":true,"verified_description":"上海六禾投资有限公司证券投资部副总监戴斌","blocking":false,"followers_count":59948,"following":false,"profile":"/sybd","donate_count":0,"status_count":3811,"friends_count":418,"province":"上海","city":"浦东新区","gender":"m","last_status_id":352968629,"step":"three","name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[{"desc":"雪球2023年度私募影响力用户","icon":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/18c70cebddf19e3fd25688eb.png","link":"https://xueqiu.com/3748823499/271072346"}],"verified_type":"10","verified_desc":"雪球2023年度私募影响力用户"},{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!180x180.png,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!50x50.png,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":true,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"湖南","text":"","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":303979963,"user_id":9669513618,"created_at":1698116928000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":null,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":264159286,"retweet_status_id":264106749,"statusId":264263457,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"url":"","location":"","description":"100万实盘,记录投资思考与操作,坚守价值与成长!","id":9669513618,"status":0,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":81,"recommend":null,"screen_name":"笨笨的大熊","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":3786,"following":false,"profile":"/9669513618","donate_count":1,"status_count":1457,"friends_count":270,"province":"","city":"","gender":"n","last_status_id":353205088,"step":"null","name":"","verified_infos":null,"profile_image_url":"community/202411/1735176617422-1735176617673.jpg,community/202411/1735176617422-1735176617673.jpg!180x180.png,community/202411/1735176617422-1735176617673.jpg!50x50.png,community/202411/1735176617422-1735176617673.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"timeBefore":"2023-10-24 11:08","reward":true,"description":"
","canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"广东","text":"
","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":303937837,"user_id":3638806050,"created_at":1698073362000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":303876647,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":264106749,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":264213373,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"url":"","location":"","description":"","id":3638806050,"status":1,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":65,"recommend":null,"screen_name":"静心观企","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":257,"following":false,"profile":"/3638806050","donate_count":0,"status_count":5913,"friends_count":190,"province":"浙江","city":"杭州","gender":"m","last_status_id":353239048,"step":"three","name":"","verified_infos":null,"profile_image_url":"community/202310/1699236347512-1699236347699.png,community/202310/1699236347512-1699236347699.png!180x180.png,community/202310/1699236347512-1699236347699.png!50x50.png,community/202310/1699236347512-1699236347699.png!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"timeBefore":"2023-10-23 23:02","reward":true,"description":"现金流解释","canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"sybd","type":"1","intro":null,"url":"","location":"","description":"借鉴智者,理解周期,分享智慧和折现认知。","id":9656826842,"status":1,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":314,"recommend":null,"screen_name":"MA200","verified_type":1,"verified":true,"verified_description":"上海六禾投资有限公司证券投资部副总监戴斌","blocking":false,"followers_count":59948,"following":false,"profile":"/sybd","donate_count":0,"status_count":3811,"friends_count":418,"province":"上海","city":"浦东新区","gender":"m","last_status_id":352968629,"step":"three","name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[{"desc":"雪球2023年度私募影响力用户","icon":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/18c70cebddf19e3fd25688eb.png","link":"https://xueqiu.com/3748823499/271072346"}],"verified_type":"10","verified_desc":"雪球2023年度私募影响力用户"},{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!180x180.png,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!50x50.png,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":true,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"浙江","text":"现金流解释","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":303881082,"user_id":3708666801,"created_at":1698047200000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":null,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":264159286,"retweet_status_id":264106749,"statusId":264162692,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"url":"","location":"","description":"","id":3708666801,"status":1,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":259,"recommend":null,"screen_name":"水火木头","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":271,"following":false,"profile":"/3708666801","donate_count":0,"status_count":3662,"friends_count":5,"province":"北京","city":"不限","gender":"n","last_status_id":352757860,"step":"three","name":"","verified_infos":null,"profile_image_url":"community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png,community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png!180x180.png,community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png!50x50.png,community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"timeBefore":"2023-10-23 15:46","reward":true,"description":"对CFA教材理解更深了","canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"北京","text":"对CFA教材理解更深了","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0}],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"3位达人赞过","tag_type":21,"type":"like"},"ip_location":"江苏","text":"经营现金流是给企业家论生死用的,而不是给投资者衡量投资收益用的,这里面有三大坑,分别是折旧、SBC和租赁,应对折旧应该采取扣除掉平均维护性的资本开支,租赁部分应该在融资现金流里面找到并扣除,SBC是从权益那里偷来的,要从权益变动表找到并扣除。","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":6,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0};
window.SNOWMAN_TARGET = window.SNOWMAN_REPLY.user;
window.SNOWMAN_STATUS = {"id":264106749,"user_id":9656826842,"source":"雪球","title":"企业的面子、里子和底子以及现金流三层漏斗","created_at":1698028284000,"retweet_count":1148,"fav_count":4073,"truncated":false,"commentId":0,"retweet_status_id":0,"symbol_id":null,"description":"企业的面子、里子和底子以及现金流三层漏斗
会计的三张表代表了企业的面子、里子和底子:
企业的三张表,利润表、现金流量表、资产负债表,分别代表了企业的面子、里子和底子。如果我们是想要格雷厄姆那样的破产清算,肯定是对底子比较看重,如果是经营企业,肯定里子比较重要,如果是想要...","type":"3","source_link":null,"edited_at":1698129828000,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"sybd","type":"1","friends_count":418,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":314,"recommend":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"last_status_id":352968629,"location":"","description":"借鉴智者,理解周期,分享智慧和折现认知。","id":9656826842,"url":"","status":1,"screen_name":"MA200","verified_type":1,"verified":true,"verified_description":"上海六禾投资有限公司证券投资部副总监戴斌","blocking":false,"followers_count":59948,"following":false,"profile":"/sybd","donate_count":0,"status_count":3811,"province":"上海","city":"浦东新区","gender":"m","step":"three","name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[{"desc":"雪球2023年度私募影响力用户","icon":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/18c70cebddf19e3fd25688eb.png","link":"https://xueqiu.com/3748823499/271072346"}],"verified_type":"10","verified_desc":"雪球2023年度私募影响力用户"},{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":true,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!180x180.png,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!50x50.png,community/20229/1667107702913-1667107707106.jpg!30x30.png"},"retweeted_status":null,"answers":null,"rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"target":"/9656826842/264106749","fragment":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"topic_pic":null,"topic_symbol":null,"topic_title":null,"topic_desc":null,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"liked":false,"view_count":0,"weixin_retweet_count":0,"mark":5,"card":null,"favorited":false,"favorited_created_at":null,"offer":null,"score":null,"controversial":false,"fundxHold":null,"tips":null,"expend":true,"firstImg":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5ad93f84f313fe686c0.png","timeBefore":"2023-10-23 10:31","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"tagStr":"","longTextForIOS":true,"rawTitle":"企业的面子、里子和底子以及现金流三层漏斗","stockCorrelation":[],"topic_pic_thumbnail_small":null,"topic_pic_thumbnail":null,"topic_pic_headOrPad":null,"tagsForWeb":";","reply_count":941,"meta_keywords":"{\"ip_location\":\"上海\",\"tag\":\"10月收官,你的账户触底反弹了吗\"}","paid_mention":null,"reward_count":20,"reward_amount":36695,"reward_user_count":20,"talk_count":0,"like_count":1314,"video_info":null,"quote_cards":null,"promotion_pic":null,"promotion_url":null,"promotion_id":0,"mark_desc":null,"pic_sizes":[{"width":447,"height":269},{"width":653,"height":326},{"width":865,"height":378},{"width":1999,"height":907},{"width":1629,"height":923},{"width":1515,"height":907}],"cover_pic_size":null,"order_id":0,"tags":[],"status_industry":null,"excellent_comments":[],"notice_tag":null,"common_emotion":null,"current_stock_price":null,"new_card":null,"source_deep_link":null,"source_feed":false,"editable":true,"like_config":null,"title_ad_pic":null,"title_ad_url":null,"title_ad_deep_link":null,"answer_comment":null,"answer_count":0,"answer_users":null,"bonus_screen_name":null,"fundx_tag":null,"extend_st_feed_info":{"stock_event_time":0,"stock_event_type":null,"change_event_color":null,"is_future_event":false,"stock_event_id":null,"stock_event_message":null,"original_text_length":4396,"disputed_status":false,"excellent_status":"false"},"stock_list":null,"reply_user_images":null,"reply_user_count":0,"fundx_symbol":null,"hot_new_rank":null,"image_info_list":[{"filename":"18b5a5ad93f84f313fe686c0.png","width":447,"height":269,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"18b5a5ad8728c5543fe68dec.png","width":653,"height":326,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"18b5a5adaf384f323fd4c92d.png","width":865,"height":378,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"18b5a5c0a61a2eb33fe00595.png","width":1999,"height":907,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"18b5a5c3926cc64c3fee0686.png","width":1629,"height":923,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"18b5a5cb73bcc64f3fe14117.png","width":1515,"height":907,"ocr_result":null}],"extend_st_home_page":{"ip_location":"上海","st_mention_stock_count":10,"ai_card":null,"ai_status":false},"recommend_cards":null,"is_column":true,"pic":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5ad93f84f313fe686c0.png,https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5ad8728c5543fe68dec.png,https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5adaf384f323fd4c92d.png,https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5c0a61a2eb33fe00595.png,https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5c3926cc64c3fee0686.png,https://xqimg.imedao.com/18b5a5cb73bcc64f3fe14117.png","is_ss_multi_pic":false,"is_bonus":false,"cover_pic":"","show_cover_pic":true,"legal_user_visible":false,"is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"
企业的面子、里子和底子以及现金流三层漏斗
会计的三张表代表了企业的面子、里子和底子:
企业的三张表,利润表、现金流量表、资产负债表,分别代表了企业的面子、里子和底子。如果我们是想要格雷厄姆那样的破产清算,肯定是对底子比较看重,如果是经营企业,肯定里子比较重要,如果是想要卖股权,肯定面子比较重要。
对于小股东来说,长期来看,里子比面子重要:
对于小股东来说,里子比面子重要,底子是里子的长期结果。最重要的是里子,也就是企业的赚钱能力,我想不出如果不是这个重要,还有什么重要?如果赚钱能力差,大概率也没能力带你分,琢磨你的钱的概律更大。如果你买过房子,出租并收租,一下子你就会懂了,因为房子只有你一个股东。股票代表的公司比房子复杂多了,股东也比较多。但是本质是一回事儿。
炒股来说面子和其他任何因素都比现金流重要:
但是如果你是炒股,可能面子比较重要,往往追求信息差的意思,就是你比别人更早知道面子,就会比别人更高的价格卖出去,如果是炒股就不仅仅是面子重要了,任何可以刺激短期供需不平衡的要素都会激发股价变化,但是长期来看,如果没有里子的支持终究掉下去的。
为什么企业的筹资中的回购和分红很重要?
如果长期股价低迷,股价跟里子不匹配,那么企业家回购和分红,就是用企业内在现金流弥补外在交易价格的不匹配的重要一环,小股东也不是无限投币的玩家,我们用极端没有流动性的B股来说明,就是企业内在现金流支撑股价的最好的证明。只有粤高速B、古井贡B、老凤祥B等几个股票有机会新高。
A股整体是个融资的市场,拿的比吐出来的多:
A股赚真钱的企业很少,所以整个金融生态是以合谋琢磨你的钱为主的。只有彻底熊透了,ZF会比较着急,因为融资功能会丧失,只要融资功能不丧失,他也不会特别着急。因为股市不是整个社会的金融的担保品,只有楼市是目前整个社会金融的担保品。楼市出问题,他会更加着急。15年银行资金通过金融创新进了股市加了杠杆,垃圾资产变成了担保品,影响了金融体系的稳定性,他出手救了一下,通过时间让所有股民承担了垃圾资产泯灭的代价。
为了融资,会有无形的手伸进来扭曲企业的面子:
有些产业是没有办法通过银行融资,就是新兴产业,那么怎么办呢?有两种方式来融资,一种方式就是人为修改企业的面子,还有一种方式就是发明一种新的金融创新的估值方式,让别人相信企业未来有价值。
在一些新兴产业方面,通过修改补贴方式,修改企业的面子的是比较常见的,就是我过去总结的融资成长股。国家通过修改补贴方式和条款,让部分企业有了报表面子,再引入股市融资,引入社会资本后,做大做强。然后再釜底抽薪,修改补贴条款,让企业内卷后,去全球抢现金流。
比如我们来计算新能源汽车,上海、北京、深圳无中生有的车牌补贴假设300-400亿(100万张牌照,每张牌照3-4万元价值量),补贴和购置税减免(500w张,每辆平均1-3万元不等),养路费减免(每台车0.2万元),所以大概引入800-1000亿的无中生有的钱。这个无中生有的钱,恰好就构成了目前所有新能源车链条的利润总和,也就是面子的总和。然后这个面子的总和构成了峰值2万亿-3万亿市值总和。引入民间资本,融资以后,釜底抽薪,补贴离去,估值就会坍塌。这就是A股新兴产业牛市和熊市的根源。
把美国的0到1抄袭到中国1到n的进取企业家、无形的手扭曲面子、通过面子融资后的资本市场再釜底抽薪无形的手离场。
发明新的金融创新方面,这就是风险投资,类似创新药等范畴。这个更加复杂一点。这里不做解释。
这些事情,长期来看,整体对国家是有利的吗?感觉上是,但是如果你炒股,又想赚资本利得,你什么阶段参与就比较重要的。
现金流摩擦的漏斗:
现金流量表是企业的里子,一般是把会计科目在银行这边的现金变化记录。拆分成企业的经营行为,投资行为和筹资行为。
作为小股东,无法参与经营和投资的任何重大决策,或者说重大影响力几乎为0。只能买入做小股东,被动参与被稀释的筹资以及分红两种跟企业交互付出和获取的方式。或者说更高一级的要求是,不要求现在分享企业的自由现金流和分红,希望未来能享受。
因此未来能赚到钱,就十分简单,企业未来是否在经营现金流扣掉投资现金流以后,能否还给你。这取决于两个要素,这个生意拿到小股东钱以后经营现金流会不会变的多多的,然后投资少少的,最后给我多多的。
所以核心就是这个生意的赚钱能力和分享能力,这个就会落在商业模式和企业文化上,商业模式决定未来是否可以赚钱多多,以及长期赚钱多多,以及在利用投资上的效率。企业文化就是两个部分的意思,就是这个企业家能够把生意做好,还有就是分不分给你的意思。要不然这个投资的闭环是不能成立的。
在这个过程中会有几次漏斗,
第一次漏斗:从收入到经营现金流的漏斗
通过产品和服务跟客户交互以后,留下的钱,再分给政府税负、供应商、员工后的钱。这是收付的概念,不是利润表那种权责发生制的概念。这里面还会调整非现金科目,大头是折旧、营运资本变化和其他,反应的是日常经营层面的问题。
这里面其他科目有一个巨大的猫腻科目,就是期权激励费用。如果是新发股权,会显得没有现金支出,但是本质上还是股东掏的钱,在权益表那边“偷”的钱。这是新兴产业常会玩的猫腻。
严格来说,这部分钱也要扣掉。
还有折旧的猫腻,会使得过去铺张浪费的企业显得很有钱,但是这个浪费的钱,也要需要看产生的效率。
这个漏斗反应的是企业真正赚钱的第一步能力,是跟客户、供应商和员工关系重要体现,以及中短期经营层面的记录。
第二次漏斗:从经营现金流到投资现金流
刨除投资项来回的倒腾,现在企业的理财和投资实在是复杂。还有重大影响的,就是融资租赁的处理。这里都暂时先不做讨论,我认为在计算自由现金流价值的时候,要从严扣除。
这里面影响最大的是固定资产、无形资产和长期投资,这个科目是商业模式的核心。好的生意,总是用少少的固定资产、无形资产和长期投资的投入就获得多多的经营现金流增长,这非常考验对生意未来的想象力,这是考验生意的中长期思考的重要科目。
如果简单来说,生意模式分三个层次:
第一个层次,用很小比例投入的,比如港交所、茅台、神奇药丸、社交网络。
第二个层次,项目IRR较高,一次投入,会计生命小于实际寿命的,大水电。
第三个层次,或者很难赚到差异化的钱的,快递的货仓物流,飞机等等。最差的赚面子上快钱的,一次投入,会计寿命大于实际寿命的,苹果链、CXO和环保等等。
但是炒股的角度看,最差的生意,往往会是短期最绚烂的东西。
互联网是介于第一类和第二类,也要因公司而已,有些网络建立成本低,不容易被攻击,有些网络建立成本高,不产生价值,而且非常容易被攻击。就跟水电站一样,有些水电站,就非常赚钱,发电小时高,单GW投入低,上网稳定。有些小水电,发电小时不稳定,单GW投入高。
创新药目前我看不懂,我猜测类似高速公路的专利保护期,必须要有爆款,而且最好有长期爆款,类似高速客流量大。你投的研发就跟高速的单公里投入,西藏的肯定没有江苏的赚钱,虽然都叫高速。
这里的思考,是最有价值的部分,因为对应的是企业长期的思考。
贡献券商研究大部分佣金的全是在第三类生意上,可见我们整个行业长期是多么没有价值。这就是我说的所长定律的来源,这种贡献最多佣金的行业,往往是最烂的生意,资本周期的高点。
大部分的融资性企业,是把小股东当工具的,融资完,放进设备和工厂里面,钱才是自己的。他们的夫妻老婆店从发家开始,就是觉得厂子是自己的。思维里就没有第三步。
一些膨胀的互联网企业,也是在这个科目处理创业兄弟们的利益的,就是所谓的协同,最后证明都是撒币。
第三次漏斗:最后一步筹资现金流
就是处理银行、小股东的关系。
类金融业企业会在这个科目,做点文章,就是借钱分红,银行和地产企业就是典型。HENGDA就是高级金融诈骗。
如果不是玩资本利得的炒股,等成熟了回购和分给你很重要。
这个美国企业是典型正面代表,苹果是100%把经营现金流回购和分红掉。
段永平的3R:Right Business、Right People、Right Price跟这三个漏斗的关系
这就是段永平说的商业模式,影响的是经营现金流和投资现金流科目,企业文化影响是经营现金流、投资现金流和筹资现金流。好生意肯定是摩擦损耗很低,最后漏给股东了。好的价格,就是这三个都想完以后,你对未来企业发生的自由现金流的估算,以及估算后跟买入价格对比。
也理解了段永平的中国不会有巴菲特,但是会有用价值思维投资的人:
原因很简单,好生意太少了,你没办法用他那种方式在中国买别人的好生意,做好生意收集器,段说巴菲特问过茅台大股东愿意出售吗,不愿意,他就不买了。
但是价值思维,就是买股就是买公司,这是肯定有的。
会计科目的rewrite:
这里推荐一个朋友说的:rewrite陌生生意每个会计科目,分析每个科目在时间函数上的变化,这只是对生意理解的第一步。我觉得写的太好了。
Margin of Safety大概就是rewrite和思考未来的能力,然后才是价钱。
在这个大跌的日子,写一点我的思考,我是理工科出身,会计知识和企业常识严重缺乏,没有证,没开过公司,写的东西很垃圾,也很正常。
我想多这样想,拿着这些你反复想的生意,瞅着那些你想买的生意的恐慌报价,你大概就不恐慌了吧。如果你拿着你没rewrite的东西,三张表都是四处漏风的,你说股市在低点,有投资价值,我相信你是睡不好的,不要自己骗自己哈。
并附录三个公司的现金流的表,算他们10年的总和,大家大概就看明白了。
泸州老窖:【赚了还给投资人】
药明康德:【融来的钱进了罐子里面,老板上面减持赚资本利得了】
碧桂园服务:【融来的钱出去了】
看清未来还是最重要的,也是很难的。
附录两个球友对这个问题认知比较清晰的地方。
帖子1:对Owner's Earning的帖子。
网页链接{股东利润与自由现金流 原文是Joe Ponzio的文章《Owner Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow》,为了看起来方便将... - 雪球 (xueqiu.com)}
帖子2:对经营性现金流、自由现金流和股东盈余的一些理解
网页链接{对经营性现金流、自由现金流和股东盈余的一些理解 一般来说,在做企业财务分析的时候,会碰到经营性现金流(CFO,cash flow from operation),自由现... - 雪球 (xueqiu.com)}
附录:张新明的企业财务报表分析网易公开课
","forbidden_retweet":false,"vod_info":null,"answer_question":false,"is_no_archive":false,"is_original_declare":true,"mp_not_show_status":false,"forbidden_comment":false,"is_private":false};