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西格尔的统计范围是1950年-2000年前后的美国股市。
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按照西格尔在《投资者的未来》一书中提出的观点,每年买入一批估值最低的股票,其长期收益远跑赢市场,也比高估值股票策略要好得多。 $万霁宏远三号(P000587)$
西格尔的统计范围是1950年-2000年前后的美国股市。
也许在那个时代,这个策略是有效的。
但是,今年4月份,华尔街传来悲剧消息:国际价值顾问公司董事长兼首席投资官查尔斯·德沃克斯跳楼身亡,而他是典型的低价股猎手。
随便举几个例子:最近20年价值股的代表,富国银行涨幅3倍、美国运通3倍、可口可乐1.5倍……而即使你从2000年最高点买入亚马逊,至今也是50倍左右!最近12年美国是典型的慢牛,但各个行业差距巨大,纳斯达克涨幅10倍,道琼斯不过4倍而已。
发生了什么变化吗?
是的,美国经济增长的形势变了!2000年之前,美国GDP尽管有波动,但总体上能维持5%以上的高增长,而2000年之后长期步入3%以下的低增长。
在经济高增长阶段,因为各个行业还能保持适当的增长,所以低估值公司随着业绩的增长,股价仍有上升的弹性。但在低增长阶段,大部分传统行业失去了增长动力,业绩止步不前,股价自然也原地踏步。
看来,任何投资策略,都有时代的烙印!
西格尔如果再重新写一本步,会不会改变观点?
大师的成功经验需要学习,但大师都是在特定的经济环境下成功的。如格雷厄姆的净资产折价策略,是在1929年大崩盘之后的背景下取得成功的,无法复制到巴菲特中后期的投资。而巴菲特的媒体股投资策略是在纸媒和电视占据主流的背景下实施的,未必适合互联网时代,同样其消费股投资策略在美国全球化红利见顶之后,收益也相对有限。
同时不可否认,大师也有犯错误的时候。如小费雷在给他老爸的经典书籍《怎样选择成长股》做序时也提到,晚年老费雪的投资并不成功。就其原因,他可能更多考察了管理层素质,而没有跟踪竞争格局的变化(个人之见)。
我觉得,中国经济由过去40年的高增长阶段正式步入低增长阶段,过去三十年成功的投资经验,可能会害苦一批人!
投资路上,我们要坚守不变的原则,但保持与时俱进的心态,怎么强调都不为过!
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