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中海油的未來現金流折現值由二部分构成,證实储量净現值➕已探明未證實儲量淨現值,證實儲量62亿桶對应净現值约7968亿人民币,已探明未证实储量净现值9656亿人民币,合計未來現金流折現值17624亿人民币。
中海油每年维持产量和竞争力投入资本支出后的自由现金流。假设维持产量不变情况下,中海油老油田和新油田的各项指标完全-样,则每年折旧和资本支出金额也就基本一样。若新油田比老油田素质差,则新油田所需资本支出比老油田折旧金额高。若新油田比老油田素质高,则新油田所需资本支出比老油田折旧低。典型例子就是沙特阿美目前的中东油田是全球素质最高油田,桶油折旧低,日产万桶油资本支出低。若其新油田是中国的低素质油田,则其维持产量所需的新油田资本支出要远高于老油田的折旧。
中海油未来10一20年的新油气田主要是圭亚那油田,中国天然气田,巴西盐下油田,渤海油田。基本都是高素质油气田,桶油折旧低,日产万桶油资本支出低。新油田的整体平均素质明显高于中海油在产老油田平均素质。
所以可得出结论维持产量所需的资本支出小于折旧金额。也就是说中海油未来维持产量和竞争力投入资本支出后的平均每年自由现金流高于当年利润。由于以上特点,中海油应该享受行业内的高估值。
中海油目前的估值明显低于行业平均水平,未来估值有较大提升空间。中海油目前市值明显低于未来现金流净现值,未来市值有明显提高空间。
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