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在经历了2015年1月份令人恐慌的大跌之后,虚拟“货币”比特币似乎从颓势中走出,最近两个月保持了回升势头,甚至重新接近了300美元的关口。这大概会让一部分比特币信仰者重拾信心,或许有人又会感觉到重新入市的诱惑。
在这波新的上升行情中,来自中国的英勇买家们充当了生力军:根据高盛3月11日发布的一份报告,人民币交易目前已经占到全球比特币交易量的80%。
在我看来,这只说明一点:中国买家正在成为又一场全球性庞氏传销活动的牺牲品和接盘侠。
史上最佳的传销设计?
2013年11月20日,正值比特币在历史上被炒得最为火热、上涨最快的时点,我曾在中国国内最大的社交媒体新浪微博上公开发了两条断言,直指比特币为“大泡沫”,和炒卖月球土地的泡沫一样,其自身毫无价值。仅仅5天后,比特币就在疯狂中达到了其历史最高点,从此进入了跌跌不休的下降通道。
应该说,13年11月的时候我还不够坚定,只是称比特币为“泡沫”而不是“传销”。这两者还是有微妙的区别。泡沫是指有价值的资本品由于短期需求暴涨而使得价格偏离其内秉价值,传销则干脆是无价值或极其低价值的东西被人为制造出需求。
传销品的“价值”完全建立在受众的“信念”基础上,这也造成一种现象:从泡沫狂热中抽身相对容易,从传销洗脑中脱心则非常困难。尤其像比特币这样一个既包括了复杂信息技术又结合了金融货币原理的传销设计,判断其投资价值为零(或极低)并非易事。金融专家可能因为不懂其IT面貌而不敢轻易置喙,而IT人士又可能因为不懂金融也无法做出判断。
一直有人指责比特币是庞氏传销。在其2014年初崩盘之后,曾成功预言美国金融危机的“末日博士”鲁比尼等权威人士也加入了这个阵营。尽管如此,还是有人继续笃信比特币,其中不乏聪睿人士,例如Overstock.com的CEO伯恩(Patrick Byrne)。
自我矛盾的“货币性投资品”
当然,也不排除许多聪明人只是故意参与这场游戏而已。比如说,有人曾以风险投资家身份,宣称要投资100家和比特币有关的公司,每家10万-20万美元。结果发现此人持有3万多枚比特币。因此,如果他用100万-200万美元造成的舆论效应可以让每枚比特币的价值上升100美元的话,他就实现了100-200万美元的净收益。
类似这种利益冲突的存在,恰可以帮助我们从金融意义上,理解比特币为何不能投资。因为它自称为一种货币,同时又被许多人当作投资品炒作──而作为一种货币和作为一种投资品,这两者根本就是自相矛盾的。
货币本身应该是价值中立的,亦即没有投资价值。通常我们说外汇投资,并不是基于价值的投资,而是基于趋势的投机。任何一种货币,在外汇市场上都同时存在涨跌两种方向,其机会是几乎均等的。任何一种货币,如果单纯持有(不做其他投资),除了上述涨跌之外,都不会带来任何收益。换言之,货币本身不可能成为投资品。
但比特币这种“货币”却宣称:因为它是一种货币,所以存在投资价值。这个论断就像有人宣称因为他是凡人所以长生不老一样荒谬。
如果比特币真是一种货币,它相对于其他货币的价格应该基本稳定。即使它真能像吹嘘的那样,避免货币滥发和通货膨胀,那么它相对于其他货币──比如美元──的价格增长,也只能是等于其他货币的通胀率。近年美元的通胀率常年维持在2%以下。换言之,比特币相对于美元的价格增长每年应该不超过2%。
这可不是那些比特币推手们告诉我们的!他们一直宣传的可是:买买买,这玩意儿很快就能值大钱!
一个自身价值不断增长的物品怎么可能被当成货币呢?假设它每年价值翻倍,那么用它当货币来做生意,意味着去年你两个比特币进货的商品,今年只能卖出一个比特币了,凭空亏损了一比特币。而如果你拿着两个比特币一年什么也不干,反而不亏损──因此,这样一个价值不断增加的物品,必定是人人拿着,绝不用于流通交换,所以永远不会成为货币。
且慢:比特币之所以会“价值连城”,不就是因为它可以成为一种货币吗?既然它成不了货币,它的所谓“价值”又是从何而来的呢?
背离了“互联网精神”
另一些比特币支持者强调,它不是传统意义上的货币,而是一种全新的支付手段。和传统的、政府发行的货币完全不同,它是去中心、非政府化的,代表了“互联网精神”。传统的金融理论在比特币身上都不适用。
去中心化的确是比特币的特点。用加密算法来达到独一无二的不可复制性,并不是什么首创。所有的银行电子交易系统都用加密算法来保障交易的唯一性。比特币的技术独特性是它无需一个中心验证和簿记,而是依靠互联网上分布式节点的共同验证和簿记来实现。参与的节点越多,比特币的唯一性验证就越强大。如果说传统的中央银行好像是一名独裁的法官,遵从个人的权威和专业性来决定货币的真假;那么,比特币的验证方式就像是一个不设名额上限的陪审团,任何人都可以申请加入来为比特币的“清白”作证。这听起来还真是非常开放和民主。
问题在于:比特币的结构设计不可能做到完全开放,因为完全开放的分布式验证体系,将无法避免恶意参与者。后者可以设立大量垃圾节点,来操控比特币的验证。为避免垃圾节点,比特币要求参与者必须提供“辛勤付出的证据(proof-of-work)”。同时,辛勤建立验证节点的人,会被奖励一笔比特币或交易费用──这个过程就是大家通俗说的“挖矿”。
这还只是走向封闭的第一步。真正让体系变得封闭的原因是:比特币发行速度必须保持稳定,因此,“辛勤付出”只能被设定为相对的。也就是说,不能因为参与挖矿的人多,发行的比特币就会越来越多。相反,挖矿的人越多,成立新节点的计算能力就会需要越多。
把比特币的“矿主”比做虚拟货币世界中的银行,这幅图景就很容易理解了:比特币貌似一个没有中央政府的世界,人人都可以成立银行,但是每年发行的货币数量是有限的,所以成立银行的人必须有足够强大的计算能力才能抢到货币发行权──假若我们把“强大的计算能力”替换成“金钱”或“权势”,我们就会恍然大悟:比特币的设计并没有改变世界秩序,依旧是有钱有势的人才能成立银行。
实际上,今天世界上的比特币财富分布已经极度不平等,据Cryptocoins网站报道,不到1%的人拥有接近80%的比特币。这证明比特币已经事实上背离了开放、共享的互联网精神,沦落为一个很容易被极少数人操控的金钱游戏。
如果我们真要把互联网精神贯彻到底,那只有一个办法,就是“不断革命”:不断推出新型的虚拟货币,来取代陈旧的、已经建立了权势验证体系的货币。依据比特币的思路,各种“山寨币”的确已经相继推出。比特币支持者因此面临一个尴尬的处境:假若强调比特币为唯一正统,那就背离了开放共享的原则;假若要把互联网精神坚持到底,那么只能宣布所有采用同样分布式验证原理的虚拟币一律平等──而其结局,当然只能是货币滥发,价值归零。
坦率地说,我的确相信这是IT虚拟货币的未来发展方向:总有一天,分布式验证会强大到这种地步,人们可以随时随地为点对点的交易创建出一个新的验证算法,从而使得虚拟货币服务进入几乎完全免费的时代。但这个前景,恰恰又从IT技术的角度符合着本文第二段的金融观点:一种货币本身,不应该具有任何投资价值。
(作者吴向宏现为某跨境投资管理公司创始合伙人。曾任颐和资产管理集团CEO、思科公司大中华区副总裁等职务。文中所述仅代表他的个人观点,不构成任何意义上的投资建议;作者及其供职单位没有参与任何和比特币有关的投资活动。)","is_answer":false,"forbidden_retweet":false,"vod_info":null,"is_column":false,"show_cover_pic":true,"legal_user_visible":false,"answer_question":false,"is_no_archive":false,"is_original_declare":false,"mp_not_show_status":false,"forbidden_comment":false,"is_private":false};