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那微创医疗的器械生意到底有没有未来?集采到底会有什么影响?我一直在想微创这么疯狂地投研发,到底收不收的回来,能不能做到投入1美元最终产生大于1美元的价值,毕竟国内动辄一件主要三类器械研发投入2000万-10000万,上市后要卖好也并不容易。
1 冠脉产品线的历史表现
微创目前布局的产品线,大多在成长的早期。上市历史最长的产品线就是冠脉支架业务,我就把冠脉产品线拉了一遍,第一个产品一代火鸟2004年上市,期间火鸟迭代了1代,火鹰迭代了 2代,还有未出水的火鹮也算上,相当于有5个国内已上市或待上市产品,假设每个消耗了研发费用4000万元吧(夸大估计),也就是冠脉历史累计投入2亿元,猜猜产生了多少累计利润?
截止2020年集采,当年冠脉还有盈利,2021/2022是微利微亏,刚刚见到的中报冠脉又恢复盈利了,今年预期会盈利超过1亿元。但是为了保守估计冠脉产品线,到底研发投入的价值创造能力如何,我们假设这个产品线因为集采,2020年后就消失了,或者像高速公路一样收费到期被收回了,或者彻底死掉了吧。
回测历年年报,冠脉条线从2004-2020年16年间产生了42.6亿元的累计净利润,考虑历史上还有球囊等贡献,保守估计打个7折也有30亿的累计利润。当然这是历史,不代表未来的表现,但是,如果假设微创现在的心脉医疗、脑科学、机器人、电生理等产品线,未来就是类似冠脉的发展曲线(实际上竞争格局、发展空间等大多会好过冠脉),对未来玩现金流折现,并假设每年的自由现金流:利润=0.7,保守的按15%的折现率进行折现,得到了下图。

按10%的折现率进行折现,就是如下这个结果

算一下累计折现值结果很惊人,按15%折现率折现得到的累计现值是7.86亿元,按10%折现率得到的结果是11.6亿元。
假设冠脉支架国内累计投入的研发费用2亿元全部是2004年发生(又是保守假设),从投入产出比来说,每投入1元钱,也有3.9-5.8元钱的价值产出。如前述假设,这还没有算冠脉这两年微利微亏过去后,必然还会继续造血产生的现金流。
如果考虑研发费用是逐年发生的,并不是起始时间一下就花了2亿元,早期火鸟、火鹰等研发费用达不到4000万元,支架产品线历史5倍左右的研发投入:价值产出比的结论是可以下的,非常保守。
关键在目前产品线的未来怎么样。从现金流折现来看,2013年前后,2020年前后两次因为行业政策原因,现金流折现值发生不利波动,但作为龙头企业,走正道的企业,不仅气死回生,还拿到了更大的市场份额,比如现在,我已经看不到国内一众内外资还有谁能和微创冠脉抗衡?未来随着新产品的不断迭代和叠加,预期还会赚更多的钱,造更多的血。所以,确实政策影响还是挺大的,但是不改长期赚钱的趋势,只有阶段性扰动。也就是说政策对长期折现值的影响不大,关键是需求有多大,还在不在,雪道能够看多长。
至于研发投入强度,国内市场研发到上市4000万元,火鹰欧洲是2015年上市的,现在美国已经临床结束,等待获批,从欧洲心律、火鹰美国临床投入量级估计,欧美市场保守估计,单产品仅临床到上市就要起码4000万美元。所以,进入国际化发展阶段后,中国产品走向海外,无论是制造成本还是研发成本是有优势的,以国内市场为基础,海外求利润,结果应该比仅仅国内发展的阶段更靓丽才对。
当然,不会每个产品线都成功,有的产品最后成了沉没成本,有的产品获得了类似支架的成功,但不管如何,有老年化背景,有国际大市场,这个生意,是既有高投入产出比,又有长长的雪道,可以持续滚下去的好生意,这个结论是没有问题的。
2 并购产品线的历史表现
2014年微创大手笔花了近3亿美金并购了骨科大关节产品线,迄今9年了,并购代价+新注资+累计亏损(部分为非现金亏损)已经超过了7亿美元。到23年中报仍然亏损,目前的说法是2024/2025年扭亏。
2018年并购了心律管理业务,代价为近2亿美元,迄今5年了吧,并购代价+注资+累计亏损(部分为非现金亏损)已经超过了5亿美元。到23年中报仍然亏损,目前的说法是2025年扭亏。
如果真的扭亏了,那就是微创发展历史中的新起点,改天换地的事情,也有可能做到,1-2亿美元的营收,在国际市场小的可以说缺乏存在感,做到稍微有点存在感的时候,日子就好过了。两笔并购到目前为止仍然不能说成功,账面代价高达12.7亿美元,如果这些钱不是拿来并购,而是投入研发,机会成本就更大了。
当然,这事还无法下定论,老常会说不并购,自研做不出来。并购得到的技术和产品线未来仍然可能产生诱人的现金流,更重要的是,积累了并购经验。铺就了国际运营渠道的价值还没有体现出来,需要在未来国际化经营中去考证,再来检讨并购的得失。好吧,选择了微创就是选择了接受,只是不管怎么算,按现金流折现,不晓得要好多利润现金流,要多久的复利增值,才能换回票价。
3 结论
内生研发是靠谱的,而且高值器械生意的价值创造能力惊人,集采只会阶段扰动造血曲线,对微创这种研发驱动和国际化经营的企业,集采等政策不是决定性变量;当然,比较意外的是,历史上同微创冠脉地位差不多的企业,到现在几乎出局了,微创反而空前提升了行业地位。
微创的并购是不靠谱的,至少目前看是不靠谱的。如前所述,代价太大。
未来会如何?自研产品线大部分会重复,甚至超过冠脉的历史表现,只是需要时间而已,儿子们慢慢已经显出了一定王者之相,当然,通过同行们的中报衬托,更是说明微创研发和国际化的路走对了。
至于海外心律和骨科,已经不敢抱复利增值的期望了,期待尽快打平,只要不继续大出血,即使不复利增值,有其他产品线赚钱,微创的未来也会不错的。
当然,如果能主动剥离一些这几年买入的边角料资产,将资源投向更有潜力的领域,未来应会更靓丽。所以,企业资源配置和投资股票没有本质差别,有的人投入1元能得到5元的价值,有的人投入1元不仅会归零,还可能成为天坑资产,现金无底洞。
你说他资源配置能力不行吧,投的自研新产品线都那么成功,你说他行吧,海外并购确实扯着了蛋。当然,我只是一个旁观的外行和小股东,也许没有看懂并购的价值,也没有看懂公司的资源配置能力。
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