![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
","timeBefore":"07-29 17:06","reward":true,"canEdit":true,"like_count":1,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"广东","is_refused":false,"text":"止盈?开玩笑。![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":370892014,"user_id":1042650379,"created_at":1753778924000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":null,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":344644057,"retweet_status_id":344626109,"statusId":0,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":94,"location":"","description":"","id":1042650379,"url":"","status":2,"screen_name":"不枉此生的白云飘飘","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":8,"following":false,"profile":"/1042650379","donate_count":0,"status_count":74,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"广东","city":"佛山","gender":"","last_status_id":350577488,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":87,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"profile_image_url":"community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png,community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png!180x180.png,community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png!50x50.png,community/202310/1699236297118-1699236297286.png!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"肯定还可以!!! 龙头都能大涨,肯定还有机会。![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
","timeBefore":"07-29 16:48","reward":true,"canEdit":true,"like_count":1,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"广东","is_refused":false,"text":"肯定还可以!!! 龙头都能大涨,肯定还有机会。![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
![\"[贴好运]\" \"[贴好运]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_32.png?v=1\")
","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":370954640,"user_id":7271353740,"created_at":1753837813000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":370943817,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":344644057,"retweet_status_id":344626109,"statusId":0,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":17,"location":"","description":"心之所向,便是光。\r炒股二十年,只亏损过一年,就是2008年的股灾。\r坚持价值投资,左侧交易者,喜欢寻找超跌股票。\r分享个人经验,敢于为散户发声。\r欢迎大家一起沟通交流,共勉学习。","id":7271353740,"url":"","status":2,"screen_name":"KAIZEN投资之道","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":18051,"following":false,"profile":"/7271353740","donate_count":0,"status_count":5032,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"广东","city":"广州","gender":"m","last_status_id":352953396,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":58,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[{"desc":"雪球星计划创作者","icon":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/196fbad0cd9a3f59b30dca6f.png","link":"https://xueqiu.com/1130856323/194962647"}],"verified_type":"10","verified_desc":"雪球星计划创作者"},{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!180x180.png,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!50x50.png,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"可以的","timeBefore":"07-30 09:10","reward":true,"canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":261,"location":"","description":"真正做到投资而非投机","id":5411389018,"url":"","status":0,"screen_name":"少即是多慢慢变富","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":9,"following":false,"profile":"/5411389018","donate_count":0,"status_count":261,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"北京","city":"朝阳区","gender":"m","last_status_id":352156257,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":240,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg,community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg!180x180.png,community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg!50x50.png,community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"广东","is_refused":false,"text":"可以的","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":370943817,"user_id":5411389018,"created_at":1753823169000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":370890477,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":344626109,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":344706592,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":261,"location":"","description":"真正做到投资而非投机","id":5411389018,"url":"","status":0,"screen_name":"少即是多慢慢变富","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":9,"following":false,"profile":"/5411389018","donate_count":0,"status_count":261,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"北京","city":"朝阳区","gender":"m","last_status_id":352156257,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":240,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg,community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg!180x180.png,community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg!50x50.png,community/20214/1621046885620-1621046885968.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"涨的太快了,有点拿不住了
这两天把涨的部分出了,大仓位留着,经济下行下要找到天时地利人和都具备的行业不容易","timeBefore":"07-30 05:06","reward":true,"canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"北京","is_refused":false,"text":"涨的太快了,有点拿不住了
这两天把涨的部分出了,大仓位留着,经济下行下要找到天时地利人和都具备的行业不容易","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":370938349,"user_id":7271353740,"created_at":1753803573000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":370936824,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":344644057,"retweet_status_id":344626109,"statusId":0,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":17,"location":"","description":"心之所向,便是光。\r炒股二十年,只亏损过一年,就是2008年的股灾。\r坚持价值投资,左侧交易者,喜欢寻找超跌股票。\r分享个人经验,敢于为散户发声。\r欢迎大家一起沟通交流,共勉学习。","id":7271353740,"url":"","status":2,"screen_name":"KAIZEN投资之道","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":18051,"following":false,"profile":"/7271353740","donate_count":0,"status_count":5032,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"广东","city":"广州","gender":"m","last_status_id":352953396,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":58,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[{"desc":"雪球星计划创作者","icon":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/196fbad0cd9a3f59b30dca6f.png","link":"https://xueqiu.com/1130856323/194962647"}],"verified_type":"10","verified_desc":"雪球星计划创作者"},{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!180x180.png,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!50x50.png,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"可以的,止盈也是一种幸福","timeBefore":"07-29 23:39","reward":true,"canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":11,"location":"","description":"","id":1876641330,"url":"","status":2,"screen_name":"小白睁眼看世界","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":1,"following":false,"profile":"/1876641330","donate_count":0,"status_count":4,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"","city":"未知","gender":"n","last_status_id":344696139,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":5,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"profile_image_url":"community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg,community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg!180x180.png,community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg!50x50.png,community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"广东","is_refused":false,"text":"可以的,止盈也是一种幸福","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":370936824,"user_id":1876641330,"created_at":1753802421000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":370890477,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":344626109,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":344696139,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","intro":null,"friends_count":11,"location":"","description":"","id":1876641330,"url":"","status":2,"screen_name":"小白睁眼看世界","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":1,"following":false,"profile":"/1876641330","donate_count":0,"status_count":4,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"province":"","city":"未知","gender":"n","last_status_id":344696139,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":5,"allow_all_stock":false,"step":"null","recommend":null,"stock_status_count":null,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"profile_image_url":"community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg,community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg!180x180.png,community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg!50x50.png,community/20252/1743313534481-1743313535369.jpeg!30x30.png","group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{}},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"我止盈了。荣昌卖了,博安卖了一半,三生卖了4分之1。","timeBefore":"07-29 23:20","reward":true,"canEdit":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"上海","is_refused":false,"text":"我止盈了。荣昌卖了,博安卖了一半,三生卖了4分之1。","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0}],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":21,"type":"like"},"ip_location":"广东","is_refused":false,"text":"今天创新药继续冲高,大家觉得还能继续涨吗?有朋友止盈吗?","is_answer":false,"source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":64,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0};
window.SNOWMAN_TARGET = window.SNOWMAN_REPLY.user;
window.SNOWMAN_STATUS = {"id":344626109,"user_id":7271353740,"source":"iPhone","title":"政策刺激下周期股掘金:供给约束为纲,神华牧原领衔四强格局","created_at":1753773008000,"retweet_count":0,"fav_count":32,"truncated":false,"commentId":0,"retweet_status_id":0,"symbol_id":null,"description":"在“反内卷”政策驱动供给侧优化及基建刺激拉动需求的背景下,强周期板块迎来结构性机会(如能源、养殖、电力、消费),成为资本市场的焦点。 中国神华 、 牧原股份 、 华能国际 、 华润啤酒 四家企业分别代表煤炭、生猪养殖、电力及消费赛道,其投资价值需结合行业周期、政策导向、成本控制及核心...","type":"3","source_link":"http://xueqiu.com/about/mobile-xueqiu","edited_at":null,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"domain":"","type":"1","last_status_id":352953396,"friends_count":17,"intro":null,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":58,"recommend":null,"st_color":"1","follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"location":"","description":"心之所向,便是光。\r炒股二十年,只亏损过一年,就是2008年的股灾。\r坚持价值投资,左侧交易者,喜欢寻找超跌股票。\r分享个人经验,敢于为散户发声。\r欢迎大家一起沟通交流,共勉学习。","id":7271353740,"url":"","status":2,"screen_name":"KAIZEN投资之道","verified_type":0,"verified":false,"verified_description":"","blocking":false,"followers_count":18051,"following":false,"profile":"/7271353740","donate_count":0,"status_count":5032,"province":"广东","city":"广州","gender":"m","step":"null","name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[{"desc":"雪球星计划创作者","icon":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/196fbad0cd9a3f59b30dca6f.png","link":"https://xueqiu.com/1130856323/194962647"}],"verified_type":"10","verified_desc":"雪球星计划创作者"},{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"profile_image_url":"community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!180x180.png,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!50x50.png,community/20248/1726411638592-1726411638801.jpg!30x30.png","live_info":{},"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/"},"retweeted_status":null,"answers":null,"rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"target":"/7271353740/344626109","fragment":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"topic_pic":null,"topic_symbol":null,"topic_title":null,"topic_desc":null,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"liked":false,"view_count":0,"weixin_retweet_count":0,"mark":5,"card":null,"favorited":false,"favorited_created_at":null,"offer":null,"score":null,"controversial":false,"fundxHold":null,"tips":null,"canEdit":true,"expend":true,"timeBefore":"07-29 15:10","reward":false,"tagStr":"","firstImg":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/1985503ab662650b3fed34a6.jpg!thumb.jpg","longTextForIOS":false,"rawTitle":"政策刺激下周期股掘金:供给约束为纲,神华牧原领衔四强格局","stockCorrelation":["SZ002714","SH600011","SH601088","82939","00291","80291","SH600519","BK1419","SZ160640"],"topic_pic_thumbnail_small":null,"topic_pic_thumbnail":null,"topic_pic_headOrPad":null,"tagsForWeb":"雪球星计划公募达人,雪球星计划;SH600011,SH601088,SZ002714","reply_count":183,"meta_keywords":"{\"post_position\":\"home_primary\",\"ip_location\":\"广东\",\"stockCorrelation\":\"SZ002714_SH600011_SH601088_82939_00291_80291_SH600519_BK1419_SZ160640\",\"stockList\":\"SZ002714_11,SH600011_11,SH601088_11,82939_30,00291_30,80291_30\"}","paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"talk_count":0,"like_count":60,"video_info":null,"quote_cards":null,"promotion_pic":null,"promotion_url":null,"promotion_id":0,"mark_desc":null,"pic_sizes":[{"width":1170,"height":195},{"width":1170,"height":189},{"width":1170,"height":192},{"width":1170,"height":192}],"cover_pic_size":null,"order_id":0,"tags":[],"status_industry":null,"excellent_comments":[],"notice_tag":null,"common_emotion":null,"current_stock_price":null,"new_card":null,"source_deep_link":null,"source_feed":false,"editable":true,"like_config":null,"title_ad_pic":null,"title_ad_url":null,"title_ad_deep_link":null,"answer_comment":null,"answer_count":0,"answer_users":null,"bonus_screen_name":null,"fundx_tag":null,"extend_st_feed_info":{"stock_event_time":0,"stock_event_type":null,"change_event_color":null,"is_future_event":false,"stock_event_id":null,"stock_event_message":null,"original_text_length":2186,"disputed_status":false,"excellent_status":"false"},"stock_list":[{"symbol":"SZ002714","type":"11"},{"symbol":"SH600011","type":"11"},{"symbol":"SH601088","type":"11"},{"symbol":"82939","type":"30"},{"symbol":"00291","type":"30"},{"symbol":"80291","type":"30"}],"reply_user_images":null,"reply_user_count":0,"fundx_symbol":null,"hot_new_rank":null,"image_info_list":[{"filename":"1985503ab662650b3fed34a6.jpg","width":1170,"height":195,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"1985503c91f217e93fc1567e.jpg","width":1170,"height":189,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"1985503dfae258dd3fe04fcd.jpg","width":1170,"height":192,"ocr_result":null},{"filename":"1985503f63f2584d3fe1dbaa.jpg","width":1170,"height":192,"ocr_result":null}],"extend_st_home_page":{"ip_location":"广东","st_mention_stock_count":6,"ai_card":null,"ai_status":false},"show_cover_pic":true,"legal_user_visible":false,"is_ss_multi_pic":false,"is_bonus":false,"cover_pic":"","recommend_cards":null,"pic":"https://xqimg.imedao.com/1985503ab662650b3fed34a6.jpg!thumb.jpg,https://xqimg.imedao.com/1985503c91f217e93fc1567e.jpg!thumb.jpg,https://xqimg.imedao.com/1985503dfae258dd3fe04fcd.jpg!thumb.jpg,https://xqimg.imedao.com/1985503f63f2584d3fe1dbaa.jpg!thumb.jpg","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"在“反内卷”政策驱动供给侧优化及基建刺激拉动需求的背景下,强周期板块迎来结构性机会(如能源、养殖、电力、消费),成为资本市场的焦点。中国神华、牧原股份、华能国际、华润啤酒四家企业分别代表煤炭、生猪养殖、电力及消费赛道,其投资价值需结合行业周期、政策导向、成本控制及核心竞争力综合判断。当前市场环境下,牧原股份凭借成本护城河和行业弱周期化逻辑最具确定性,中国神华受益于政策托底与分红稳定性具备防御性,华能国际在绿电转型中展现增长潜力,而华润啤酒则需警惕高端化战略的执行风险。以下从行业逻辑、核心竞争力、政策影响及未来潜力展开分析。
一、中国神华:政策托底下的防御性资产
1.核心竞争力与护城河:
中国神华作为煤炭行业龙头,依托资源垄断(神东矿区优质储量)和“煤电路港航化”一体化产业链,自产煤成本仅为179元/吨(行业最低),运输成本较同业低20%。其高分红(2025年承诺分红比例不低于65%)与现金流稳定性(在手现金1554亿元)构成护城河,叠加政策支持下的能源保供角色,使其成为周期底部的避险标的。
2.政策与行业趋势:
“反内卷”政策抑制无序扩产,叠加夏季用电高峰支撑煤价,神华虽上半年净利下滑8.6%-15.7%,但管理层预计火电需求回升及进口煤减少将改善供需。长期看,其煤电灵活性改造(41.6%新增装机)和CCUS技术商业化布局,符合“双碳”目标下的转型逻辑。
3.未来潜力与投资启示:
短期受益于煤价季节性反弹(迎峰度夏需求),长期高分红与现金流优势支撑估值底线。但需警惕煤炭“供强需弱”的结构性矛盾,若煤价持续低迷,盈利修复空间有限。建议持有,作为组合中的防御性资产配置。
二、牧原股份:成本领先驱动的弱周期王者
1.核心竞争力与护城河:
牧原股份凭借极致成本控制(2025年目标降至11元/公斤)和全球领先的生猪养殖规模,构建了“成本+产能”双护城河。其全产业链布局(从种猪育种到屠宰加工)及智能化管理能力,使其在猪价下行期仍能实现净利105亿(同比增1130%-1190%)。
2.政策与行业趋势:
政策调减能繁母猪100万头推动行业产能出清,目标建立“弱周期、窄波动”新稳态。牧原通过降负债(年内目标减少100亿元)和H股上市布局全球化,进一步强化抗风险能力。
3.未来潜力与投资启示:
成本优势与政策红利共振下,牧原有望持续扩份额。若下半年猪价企稳,其屠宰业务扭亏及海外市场拓展将打开第二增长曲线。建议持有,重点关注成本目标达成及猪价走势。
三、华能国际:绿电转型中的成长性标的
1.核心竞争力与护城河:
华能国际以火电为基础,叠加新能源装机扩张(风电、光伏增速分别达21%、60%),形成“火电+绿电”双轮驱动。其成本优化能力和市场化交易策略(灵活应对电价下调),是短期盈利改善的核心。
2.政策与行业趋势:
新能源补贴退坡与电价市场化改革下,公司通过长协煤价锁定成本,同时加速光伏、风电装机(2025年目标新增装机超1000万千瓦),绿电占比提升将增强长期盈利能力。
3.未来潜力与投资启示:
尽管火电业务承压,但绿电高增(新能源上网电量同比+14%-48%)及成本优化空间使其具备成长性。建议持有,关注下半年新能源投产进度及煤价回落持续性。
四、华润啤酒:高端化破局的关键在于执行力
1.核心竞争力与护城河:
华润啤酒凭借“超高端+中高端”产品矩阵(如喜力、雪花勇闯天涯)及全国化渠道网络,具备品牌溢价能力。其高端化战略(“和美全球行”文化输出)和白酒业务拓展(“啤+白”双轮驱动),是差异化竞争的核心。
2.政策与行业趋势:
消费“反内卷”政策鼓励品质升级,但行业竞争加剧(市场份额向头部集中)。2025年前两月销量仅实现单位数增长,高端化战略需依赖产品创新与定价权突破,短期内毛利率承压(进口大麦涨价12%)。
3.未来潜力与投资启示:
若高端化与白酒业务协同效应释放,华润啤酒或可复制贵州茅台的消费逻辑。但当前销量下滑、白酒业务增长停滞及管理层频繁调整的风险较高。建议谨慎持有,重点跟踪高端产品市占率提升及成本管控效果。
总结
综合来说,在强周期行业中,牧原股份和中国神华因成本控制与政策红利更具确定性,分别代表“弱周期防御”与“高分红安全资产”;华能国际的绿电转型提供成长性,但需关注火电拖累;华润啤酒的高端化潜力巨大,但执行风险需警惕。投资者应根据风险偏好配置:牧原股份适合追求成长与抗周期能力的投资者,中国神华适配防御型策略,华能国际需押注绿电爆发,而华润啤酒则需等待高端化战略验证。长期看,行业集中度提升与政策引导下的结构性机会(如绿电、高端制造)仍是核心逻辑。最后我持有以上股票,我建议强周期股票适合右侧交易,更能稳操胜券。此时此刻奉上李商隐的诗作:“自能成羽翼,何必仰云梯。”
投资建议不作为买入依据,欢迎大家点赞讨论。
$华能国际(SH600011)$ $中国神华(SH601088)$ $牧原股份(SZ002714)$
#雪球星计划公募达人# #雪球星计划#
@今日话题 @雪球创作者中心



","forbidden_retweet":false,"vod_info":null,"is_column":true,"answer_question":false,"is_no_archive":false,"is_original_declare":true,"mp_not_show_status":false,"forbidden_comment":false,"is_private":false};