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(2)所谓对市场敬畏,就是对自己没有信心,说明自己没有理解透。
(3)比如你认为值100元的东西白送你要不要?
(4)任何可持续经营的资产都有价值,由价格来决定是否值得投资,价格越低就应该更加值得持有。
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巴菲特说这么多年来从未见过价值投资蔚然成风,但股市中的大多数人都认为自己是在做价值投资。这是很有意思的一件事。很明显,要么有一方错了,要么大家说的价值投资根本不是同一回事。
安全边际是价值和价格的差,是一个当下的概念,它和前一年、前一天的价格毫无关系——无论涨跌。而“越跌越买”的说法显然隐含了价格趋势,潜意识里把价格的变化当成了买入的充要条件。这和技术分析毫无分别,甚至更糟,以至于很多“价值投资者”被越套越深。说到这,大家一定会反驳:如果价值是100,我50买进是打5折,跌到40不是更应该买吗?未必!这貌似常识的说法里其实有致命的陷阱。
世界是不断变化的,不可知的,股市更是如此。第一点“不断变化”是指诸形无常,当下的你已不再是过去的你,今天的公司已不再是昨天的公司。因此按理说我们每次买卖时都应该重新分析公司的价值。重新是指像你第一次分析公司时的那种心态,那种初心,那种尼采的骆驼、狮子、婴儿精神三变中婴儿的状态。你会虚心地听取正反的观点并认真权衡,不带任何成见。但很明显,几乎没有人能不受过去观点和看法的干扰,甚至常常会自我强化,爱上股票,偏执地在错误中越陷越深。我们50时买进了股票,当股票到40时,并不意味着就一定应该买。我们应该先问问自己,其价值仍然是100吗?有人会说了,我今天50买了,明天跌停了应该继续买啊,毕竟价值不会在一天之内变太多。对我来说,每次判断后,是一次买入还是分几天买入,应看作一次操作。这和整体的资金管理是密切相关的。如果目标仓位已经配好,哪怕买入完成后继续跌一般也不会买(当然,根据具体情况会有机动的仓位,但绝对不会孤注一掷甚至融资借贷)。而下一次加仓一定是基本面出现变化时,也就是价值变化时,比如价值从100到110了,或者跌到90了。自然而然,时间上也会间隔一段时间。
第二点“不可知”是指:历史是或然的,现在是不可知的,将来是不可预测的(总之,我是彻底的不可知论者)。大家写文章最喜欢说“大概率”怎么样怎么样,历史是或然的就是说历史上实际发生的事并不一定是“大概率”的那个事,因此千万别把“大概率”这个词等同于必然发生,然后不顾一切冲进去抄底。现在不可知是很显然的,以人类目前的认知水平,总有不知道的东西。你即使判断价值是100,那也仅仅是一种假设,一种“大概率”的可能性,总有你不知道的东西,因此还是应该对市场保持敬畏之心。“越跌越买”的前提是确信自己是正确的,市场是错误的,这其实不会经常发生,即使巴菲特等一个机会也常常等很多年。将来不可预测相信没太多争议,不再多说。
巴菲特说过应该在别人恐惧时贪婪,别人贪婪时恐惧,但他没说应该越跌越贪婪。涨的时候也可能恐惧(恐高),孤注一掷的抄底又何尝不是一种贪呢。如果“越跌越买”不可靠,难道还能“越涨越买”不成?没错,价值投资既可能是越跌越买,也可能是越涨越买,或者越跌越卖,越涨越卖。这里不是玩文字游戏,只是想打破“越跌越买”这种害人不浅的说法——这也是曾经让我最受伤的错误观念。我们对一个公司的估值,必然是以很多假设、很多对未来的判断为前提的,而仓位也必然是根据这些假设和判断向着好的方向发展而逐渐增加的。当这些利好逐渐明朗时,可能更多的人会关注到,表现在股价也止跌回升。只要变化继续向好而安全边际仍然存在,我们为什么不能继续买入,越涨越买呢?我们的判断和买入是基于基本面的,如果表现在股价上就可能是左侧买一部分,右侧买一部分(左侧稍多于右侧)。
“当知春鸟开始鸣叫的时候,春天已经过去了一半。”不过那有什么关系呢?如果你真的看好企业未来五年十年的发展,春天之后还有火热的夏天和收获的秋天。
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附注(2013-10-13):
本来文章写完就不再属于作者,而我也从来最头痛修改自己之前写的东西,不过限于本人表达能力,此文引起争论较大,容我补充几句。
1、写的时候想象的阅读对象是自己和好友,因此用了这个标题来警醒自己。如果想到这么多人看,我确实应该严谨一些,把标题改为“价值投资可能越跌越买,也可能越涨越买”,或“价格下跌未必意味着安全边际增加”。毕竟网络时代,很多人只看标题,没时间看我的绕口令。
2、对知道自己在做什么的投资人,自然可以越跌越买。但我想用这种矫枉过正的方式给自己和对公司了解不深的人提个醒:股价跌了,并不意味着一定应该越买,我们应该首先看看上次判断之后企业变化了没有。
3、文章想说的是尽量不看或少看股价图,忽略左侧还是右侧(这本就是技术分析的术语),而根据基本面来决定加仓与否。举个例子,假设我们去年的时候仍看好茅台,并且越跌越买,这没什么。但我们应该清醒知道,自己对塑化剂、反三公以及行业趋势的判断是基于很多主观假设的(很多因素不可知),而这些都会影响估值,这时候我们可以买但肯定不能全仓。当塑化剂事件明朗,发现没有大家想的严重,这时或许可以加一次;当反三公逐渐明朗,发现比大家想的严重得多,这时加仓就得谨慎;如果有一天茅台逐渐证明自己毫发无损度过危机,那视情况也许可以继续买入(最后一次操作反映到股价图上可能已经是右侧了)。这个过程中,价格的重要性是次要的(模糊的正确就行,上下差50%可能都无所谓),最重要的还是对企业的判断。
4、我持股的时间比较长,可能平均下来都在三年以上,因此我说“越跌”的时候和很多人脑海里的“跌”可能是不同的。短期内跌肯定内在价值变化是很小的,长期内跌就需要特别警惕被“温水煮青蛙”。
5、我不是反对“越跌越买”,我反对的是把“越跌越买”当成迷信和教条,觉得只要跌了就应该加仓。
再次感谢大家的指点和拍砖!
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