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","timeBefore":"2022-04-02 22:35","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":1,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"最有含金量的回复,对国企经营者的属性入木三分![\"[很赞]\" \"[很赞]\"](\"//assets.imedao.com/ugc/images/face/emoji_35_like.png?v=1\")
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","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":289367387,"user_id":6557398276,"created_at":1686958280000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":null,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":216014392,"retweet_status_id":216006416,"statusId":253442883,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":41,"recommend":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"domain":"","type":"1","status":0,"followers_count":0,"status_count":262,"verified":false,"profile":"/6557398276","friends_count":314,"province":"不限","city":"未知","gender":"n","last_status_id":351685233,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","id":6557398276,"url":"","screen_name":"分一杯羹足矣","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20253/1745910308678-1745910308828.jpeg,community/20253/1745910308678-1745910308828.jpeg!180x180.png,community/20253/1745910308678-1745910308828.jpeg!50x50.png,community/20253/1745910308678-1745910308828.jpeg!30x30.png"},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"国企管理层","timeBefore":"2023-06-17 07:31","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"北京","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"国企管理层","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":234068521,"user_id":1541243298,"created_at":1648893218000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":234040624,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":216006416,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":216028155,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":305,"recommend":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"domain":"","type":"1","status":1,"followers_count":707,"status_count":6795,"verified":false,"profile":"/1541243298","friends_count":299,"province":"","city":"","gender":"n","last_status_id":351854569,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"投资无戏言。\n日拱一卒,不疾而速。\n投资和谈资之间,隔着一道鸿沟。\ntalk is cheap,show me the code.","id":1541243298,"url":"","screen_name":"胡琛","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20155/1433749981730-1433750000167.jpg,community/20155/1433749981730-1433750000167.jpg!180x180.png,community/20155/1433749981730-1433750000167.jpg!50x50.png,community/20155/1433749981730-1433750000167.jpg!30x30.png"},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"
/金茂 国企","timeBefore":"2022-04-02 17:53","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"
/金茂 国企","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0}],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"一直关注楼主,欣赏这种勇于直面自己的态度。自己长期在国企工作,说点感受,供大家参考。国企的高层,尤其是董事长或总经理这种岗位,不一定是优秀管理者,但一般是优秀演讲者,说难听点,是优秀演员。外部人,尤其是行业外的人,很容易被迷惑。举个夸张的例子,即使是上一个岗位与房地产无关的国企领导人,调到房地产公司几个月,跟外人谈起公司业务来,也能让人觉得对项目如数家珍、对行业有深刻洞察力。企业家级的人物少,跟民营企业老板相比,国企管理层的选择多是各种力量平衡的结果,不深入了解,很容易被误导。比如一个对投资者亲切温和、彬彬有礼的管理层,在业务上可能是守旧保守、不敢担当的,一个意气风发对项目如数家珍的领导,对内可能是飞扬跋扈搞一言堂的。对上市国企来说,个人觉得最主要还是关注是否诚实守信、是否侵害小股东利益,通过接触管理层本人判断其个人能力什么的,很容易被误导,还是看报表业绩更靠谱。","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":5,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0};
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2017年2月开始第一笔买入,到如今已经五年有余。期间写过无数分析文章,说过无数溢美之词。很多人可能因为我的所说所写而买入并亏损,这里我只能说声非常抱歉!看错了是自己水平的问题,眼光的问题。我的所说所写当时真的就是自己的真实想法,自己在其中也遭遇了巨大损失,也付出了沉重的代价,而且可能比任何人都多都重。想到这些大家也行心里会好受一些!
自己现在依然持有一部分金茂,并且也认为目前的金茂依旧具有投资价值。但是这时的金茂早已不是自己预期中的那个金茂,不是那个自己认为具有行业中明显的差异化优势,能比肩最顶级房企的金茂了;而沦为一家平庸的二线央企。
回顾整个投资历程:起初被他的顶级商业所吸引,金茂大厦,凯晨,包括全国黄金位置的顶级酒店。之后是金茂府这个品牌的全国范围攻城略地,城市运营概念的铺开。这些汇聚在一起确实极具吸引力。
2017年9月,一群来自北京上海的投资者在北京和金茂的管理层吃饭。这是金茂管理层第一次面对国内投资者的见面交流,所谈甚欢。之前饱受外资大行看淡的李总,把国内投资者引为知音。而李总对金茂主要项目的如数家珍,对发展方向战略的清晰也给大家留下了重视投资者,高水平,被低估的领导人。并且那个时候金茂在推动混改,一旦完成金茂管理层将实现最大的决策自由化以及利益绑定。
18,19年是金茂声望如日中天之时。城市运营的签约和销售额的增长都是飞速的,增速央企中头号,媲美顶级民企。报表中的利润率也是高高在上,比肩华润龙湖。央企的资金成本和资源获取能力,民企的增长速度,最顶级的毛利率,这个时期的金茂确实没有理由不被喜爱,也确实被市场慷慨的给与了最高一档的估值。19年7月平安入股金茂,4.8元的入股价成为大家心目中金茂最确定的底部。投资者包括我认为自己眼光独到,找到了散落在角落中的珍珠!唯一的遗憾可能就是股价涨幅比不过那些加足杠杆的民企。
2020年之初疫情影响,年中开始金茂跌落神坛,股价开始了漫长的无止境下跌之旅。资金开始撤离的起因是4月份公布的19年年报中,管理层对已售未结的毛利率指引降为25%,这是金茂毛利下降的开始;8月份的业绩会对这一块的指引降为18-20%。这其实就已经为之后的暴雷埋下伏笔。之后就是2020年报的暴雷,股价更是新一轮探底之路。
如今的金茂两大缺点:第一是管理层对股东的重视不够,也是大家槽点较多的地方,但这其实并不是最主要的问题;最重要的是金茂的费用控制问题,体现在财报里就是毛利低费用高有计提。
这么严重的问题为什么自己五年都没有看清?说起来当然是自己的眼光和阅历的问题。看清一家企业确实是太难了,尤其是像房地产这种复杂的被ZC干扰大的行业。并且主要矛盾往往混杂在无数并不重要的小问题之中,令人难辨真相。
先说管理层,我到现在依然认为李总江总的能力是没有问题的,并且开始时对投资者的热情也是真实的。但是金茂不仅受ZC影响,还受母公司中化的掣肘。由于中化内部问题,金茂的混改迟迟难以落地,管理层自身利益得不到保证;对股票的增持回购限制极多,各种事情都有打报告写申请等审批,久而久之,管理层也不愿意做这种费力不讨好的事。
再说费用问题:这确实是一个大问题,对金茂的很多判断的根基都建立在此基础之上。因为早年的地确实是一块块数过的,每块地的地价和售价也都清楚,所以套用正常的利润模型分析是有不错的利润回报的。但事实确是大幅减值加结算低毛利。问题的根源就是金茂城市公司之间水平的差异过大。17,18年报表中的高利润率项目,都来自早年那几个大本营优势城市公司,北京,上海,青岛,长沙等。甚至2019年的结算里面也是这些城市为主。所以这给人的印象确实是金茂的项目毛利水平是正常的。而2017,2018年开始全国范围的攻城略地,新进入了几十个城市,这些城市公司都是新组建的,水平无从考证。这些项目的结算确实要等到2020年才能体现出来。也就是这些问题之前就没有暴露出来。一旦暴露,就是天雷!叫人无从防范
再说三费问题:财务成本一直保守处理,不去说它。金茂的两费高之前也有很多球友提醒过分析过,自己总是以费用错配原因给规避过去。这个确实是自己水平问题。金茂的销售费其实还挺正常的,在业内算是优秀水平。重点是管理费,我之前计算管理费时忘记乘以权益比,所以数据失真。举个例子:两家企业都是一千亿的收入,40亿的管理费,看起来都差不多水平。但是如果一家企业的少数股东权益是40%,一家是20%,那结果就大不一样。第一家的权益管理费率是6.66%,第二家就只有5%。看起来也就差1.6%,但是金茂去年二级开发的净利润率一共也就3-4%,管理费这一项就差出近一半,还是挺夸张的。这个原因依然是城市公司之间的问题。金茂内部有一个各城市费效比,其中关于管理费的评估是大约是营收的4%。4%这个数字本身还不错,优秀如华润大概是3.6%。但我想这份报告可能是让领导看的。。。。金茂21年报中这一数字是8.5%!,计算方法是46.7亿管理费除以61%权益占比再除以900亿营收,得出8.5%。可能由于金茂去年大量的出表所以让这一计算方式有点失真,那么之前2020年的是9.4%!旭辉大概是6%。很多时候高速增长能够掩盖一切问题,当增长停滞或是减慢,那么各种问题就会暴露出来。之前你30-40%毛利,十几个点的净利率,三费差个两个点问题不大。如今你不过3-4个点的净利率,那这点差距就要命了。
除了公司基本面,其实情绪还受大盘和同行公司的影响。比如现在看今年出3.2的金茂算是个卖点。但是其它央企地产股价早已回到了当初的高点。不甘之心阻碍了投资决策。
说了这么多问题,再说说现在的情况。如果金茂管理层能够重新重视起投资者,如果金茂下决心整治一些不良城市公司的团队(其实去年已经换掉两三个区域总了),那么重振辉煌是有可能的,毕竟底子还在。只不过这种未曾发生的事情投资者不应抱有过多期待!
近几年金茂做的最有成效的事情就是资金成本一路下滑,这点江总功不可没。从差不多5%降了1个点。
如今的金茂,经过两年70个亿的计提,早期高价地影响彻底成为过去。毛利率能否回升保守起见不敢确定,但是见底是基本确认。那么如今的毛利率和结算金额来算,去年48亿的利润也绝对是个底部。未来每年增长是一定的,不确定的只是幅度。3-4%的净利润率也已经跌无可跌,毕竟即便跑冒滴漏,底线还是有的。公司也在调整人事,控制成本。40%的派息率还是会继续维持的。所以现价的金茂静态股息率大约是9%,并且各个条线都隐含提升的可能。即便无法提升,不再计提也能促使业绩增长。曾经的高光不再,如今的困境反转可期。
经过了大幅减持,我自己依然还有不小的持仓。但是认清差距,放低预期,把金茂当作下有保底,上有空间的防御性品种来配置,股息在仓位就还在。而且毕竟今年销售可能就进前十了,作为中国第一大行业中排名前十的央企,200亿出头的市值应该还是安全的。
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