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【白马股走背运,“好公司”要不要出手接?】
大盘成长风格在2019和2020年表现最强,也成就了“核心资产”和“抱团股”。风水轮流转,今年茅指数下跌超10%,不少“心头好”害粉丝们爆仓,腰斩的大白马也不是个案。曾经高不可攀,如今肯委身下嫁,要不要接?
世上没有无价之宝,同一项资产价格越高,潜在回报率越低,这是常识。但价格划不划算不取决于它跌了多少,而是以现价衡量的潜在回报率够不够高。目前茅指数的市盈率在三十多倍,市净率在六七倍,虽然回撤幅度不小,却仍不能说整体性便宜。
还有其他问题。“好公司”不是明摆着的,更不是不言自明的,没有哪个公司可以在没有证明过自己的情况下被称为好公司。
有人会说,白马股过去两年业绩逆势增长,就是好公司的最好证明。
对不起,阶段性的业绩表现从来都不是好公司的证据,否则好公司就太多了。
在生命周期中,有过两三年甚至三五年业绩高光表现的公司屡见不鲜,真正长得大、稳得住、活得久的却寥寥无几。今天被默认为“好公司”的,三五年后变脸的概率不低。
归根结底,影响企业长期绩效的因素复杂多变,阶段性业绩更多受外部环境和运气影响,而不是能力。一个我们没有看到它过往十年以上业绩记录的公司,不要轻易称它为好公司,虽然它可能“暂时是”好股票。
所以,跌下来的白马股能不能买,要看它是真白还是假白。
以上内容仅代表个人观点,不作为投资建议,请大家理性。
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