","timeBefore":"2024-08-27 17:17","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":183,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":878,"province":"","city":"","gender":"","status_count":101,"last_status_id":328799185,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","verified":false,"profile":"/1024906262","id":1024906262,"url":"","status":0,"followers_count":43,"screen_name":"ero7415","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/default/avatar.png,community/default/avatar.png!180x180.png,community/default/avatar.png!50x50.png,community/default/avatar.png!30x30.png"},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"北京","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"慌不择路,饥不择食,寒不择衣,贫不择妻。","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":336457812,"user_id":4235667506,"created_at":1724514653000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":null,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":302223568,"retweet_status_id":302222552,"statusId":0,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":20,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":42,"province":"不限","city":"未知","gender":"m","status_count":44,"last_status_id":351032530,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","verified":false,"profile":"/4235667506","id":4235667506,"url":"","status":2,"followers_count":336,"screen_name":"芯片崛起","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20186/1532586404151-1532586404283.jpg,community/20186/1532586404151-1532586404283.jpg!180x180.png,community/20186/1532586404151-1532586404283.jpg!50x50.png,community/20186/1532586404151-1532586404283.jpg!30x30.png"},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"估计不止1-2年","timeBefore":"2024-08-24 23:50","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"江苏","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"估计不止1-2年","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":336452537,"user_id":6331204248,"created_at":1724507546000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":336428810,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":302222552,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":0,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":2,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":21,"province":"","city":"","gender":"f","status_count":1,"last_status_id":294735806,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","verified":false,"profile":"/6331204248","id":6331204248,"url":"","status":2,"followers_count":1,"screen_name":"云栖悟语","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/202310/1699236416866-1699236417091.png,community/202310/1699236416866-1699236417091.png!180x180.png,community/202310/1699236416866-1699236417091.png!50x50.png,community/202310/1699236416866-1699236417091.png!30x30.png"},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"做美股需要能力吗?一直涨的东西不需要能力,哈哈😄能做好大A那才是真神,做大A叫挑战,","timeBefore":"2024-08-24 21:52","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":183,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":878,"province":"","city":"","gender":"","status_count":101,"last_status_id":328799185,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","verified":false,"profile":"/1024906262","id":1024906262,"url":"","status":0,"followers_count":43,"screen_name":"ero7415","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/default/avatar.png,community/default/avatar.png!180x180.png,community/default/avatar.png!50x50.png,community/default/avatar.png!30x30.png"},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"广东","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"做美股需要能力吗?一直涨的东西不需要能力,哈哈😄能做好大A那才是真神,做大A叫挑战,","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":336432341,"user_id":8198936884,"created_at":1724482583000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":336427226,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":302222552,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":302227875,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":1144,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":4699,"province":"","city":"","gender":"n","status_count":668,"last_status_id":351578220,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","verified":false,"profile":"/8198936884","id":8198936884,"url":"","status":2,"followers_count":122,"screen_name":"九月紫淇","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20217/1629556121652-1629556121820.jpeg,community/20217/1629556121652-1629556121820.jpeg!180x180.png,community/20217/1629556121652-1629556121820.jpeg!50x50.png,community/20217/1629556121652-1629556121820.jpeg!30x30.png"},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"是不是就算降息,人家崩我们也照样崩,无所谓人家降不降息,关键人家不能死,我们才能苟延残喘,我理解的是不是这个意思?","timeBefore":"2024-08-24 14:56","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":46,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":13,"province":"辽宁","city":"沈阳","gender":"m","status_count":2458,"last_status_id":351754799,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"前资产管理公司副总,曾做过十年私募总监。05年入市。投资范围涵盖股票,大宗、贵金属期货,期权,港美股,外汇。现役一线游资一枚,单打独斗。","verified":false,"profile":"/1071814723","id":1071814723,"url":"","status":2,"followers_count":33281,"screen_name":"诸葛孔暗","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!180x180.png,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!50x50.png,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!30x30.png"},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"江苏","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"是不是就算降息,人家崩我们也照样崩,无所谓人家降不降息,关键人家不能死,我们才能苟延残喘,我理解的是不是这个意思?","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0},{"id":336427315,"user_id":6342732532,"created_at":1724476415000,"in_reply_to_comment_id":336427226,"root_in_reply_to_status_id":302222552,"retweet_status_id":null,"statusId":0,"truncated":false,"edited_at":null,"pic":"","rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"payment":0,"amount":0,"reply_count":0,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":34,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":237,"province":"","city":"","gender":"n","status_count":35,"last_status_id":326731481,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"","verified":false,"profile":"/6342732532","id":6342732532,"url":"","status":2,"followers_count":3,"screen_name":"第一代小韭菜","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":null,"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20245/1718679465586-1718679465816.jpeg,community/20245/1718679465586-1718679465816.jpeg!180x180.png,community/20245/1718679465586-1718679465816.jpeg!50x50.png,community/20245/1718679465586-1718679465816.jpeg!30x30.png"},"status":null,"reply_remark":null,"reply_verified":null,"reply_verified_type":null,"reply_verified_description":null,"reply_comment":null,"reply_screenName":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"truncated_screen_name":null,"censored":null,"spamType":null,"modifiedSpamType":null,"liked":false,"mark":0,"description":"谢谢您,希望我们小散能够熬过黎明前的黑暗","timeBefore":"2024-08-24 13:13","canEdit":true,"reward":true,"like_count":0,"paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"offer_amount":0,"pic_sizes":[],"root_reply_to_cid":-1,"child_comments":[],"reply_user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":46,"recommend":null,"domain":"","type":"1","friends_count":13,"province":"辽宁","city":"沈阳","gender":"m","status_count":2458,"last_status_id":351754799,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","location":"","description":"前资产管理公司副总,曾做过十年私募总监。05年入市。投资范围涵盖股票,大宗、贵金属期货,期权,港美股,外汇。现役一线游资一枚,单打独斗。","verified":false,"profile":"/1071814723","id":1071814723,"url":"","status":2,"followers_count":33281,"screen_name":"诸葛孔暗","following":false,"blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!180x180.png,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!50x50.png,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!30x30.png"},"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"福建","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"谢谢您,希望我们小散能够熬过黎明前的黑暗","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":0,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0}],"reply_user":null,"editable":true,"extend_comment_info":{"cmt_exchange_info":"","tag_type":-1,"type":""},"ip_location":"福建","is_answer":false,"is_refused":false,"text":"我看了您前面那篇的截图部分,和这篇文章,目前是不是意思:美股冬天来临,我们春天将至。望不惜赐教,非常感谢","source":"雪球","comment_reply_count":10,"fundx_manager":false,"fundx_holder":false,"fundx_type":0};
window.SNOWMAN_TARGET = window.SNOWMAN_REPLY.user;
window.SNOWMAN_STATUS = {"id":302222552,"user_id":1071814723,"source":"iPhone","title":"无双三部曲 前章-牛市的前世今生:","created_at":1724475025000,"retweet_count":3,"fav_count":85,"truncated":false,"commentId":0,"retweet_status_id":0,"symbol_id":null,"description":"在传统的国人认知里,股市是经济的晴雨表,经济好,股市才会好,其实这话对也不对。正确的地方在于,经济和股市深度绑定这个观点是正确的,在经济强劲时期股市必然是向好的;而错处也恰恰在于,经济是有周期的,而股市向好是有趋势的,如果画两条波动线,一条代表经济一条代表股市,虽然在加速阶段...","type":"3","source_link":"http://xueqiu.com/about/mobile-xueqiu","edited_at":null,"user":{"subscribeable":false,"common_count":0,"remark":"","recommend_reason":null,"recommend":null,"st_color":"1","intro":null,"follow_me":false,"allow_all_stock":false,"stock_status_count":null,"blog_description":"","stocks_count":46,"domain":"","type":"1","status_count":2458,"verified":false,"profile":"/1071814723","friends_count":13,"province":"辽宁","city":"沈阳","gender":"m","last_status_id":351754799,"verified_description":"","verified_type":0,"step":"null","followers_count":33281,"url":"","location":"","description":"前资产管理公司副总,曾做过十年私募总监。05年入市。投资范围涵盖股票,大宗、贵金属期货,期权,港美股,外汇。现役一线游资一枚,单打独斗。","status":2,"id":1071814723,"following":false,"screen_name":"诸葛孔暗","blocking":false,"donate_count":0,"name":"","verified_infos":[{"data":[],"verified_type":"5","verified_desc":"用户已完成实名身份认证"}],"group_ids":null,"verified_realname":false,"name_pinyin":null,"screenname_pinyin":null,"photo_domain":"//xavatar.imedao.com/","live_info":{},"profile_image_url":"community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!180x180.png,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!50x50.png,community/20173/1493093674079-1493093674259.jpg!30x30.png"},"retweeted_status":null,"answers":null,"rqtype":null,"rqid":0,"target":"/1071814723/302222552","fragment":null,"blocked":false,"blocking":false,"topic_pic":null,"topic_symbol":null,"topic_title":null,"topic_desc":null,"donate_count":0,"donate_snowcoin":0,"liked":false,"view_count":0,"weixin_retweet_count":0,"mark":5,"card":null,"favorited":false,"favorited_created_at":null,"offer":null,"score":null,"controversial":false,"fundxHold":null,"tips":null,"stockCorrelation":["SH600187","SH600839","SZ300184"],"timeBefore":"2024-08-24 12:50","canEdit":true,"expend":true,"reward":true,"firstImg":null,"rawTitle":"无双三部曲 前章-牛市的前世今生:","tagStr":"","longTextForIOS":false,"topic_pic_thumbnail_small":null,"topic_pic_thumbnail":null,"topic_pic_headOrPad":null,"tagsForWeb":";SH600187,SH600839,SZ300184","reply_count":54,"meta_keywords":"{\"ip_location\":\"辽宁\",\"stockCorrelation\":\"SH600187_SH600839_SZ300184\",\"stockList\":\"SH600187_11,SH600839_11,SZ300184_11\"}","paid_mention":null,"reward_count":0,"reward_amount":0,"reward_user_count":0,"talk_count":0,"like_count":162,"video_info":null,"quote_cards":null,"promotion_pic":null,"promotion_url":null,"promotion_id":0,"mark_desc":null,"pic_sizes":[],"cover_pic_size":null,"order_id":0,"tags":[],"status_industry":null,"excellent_comments":[],"notice_tag":null,"common_emotion":null,"current_stock_price":null,"new_card":null,"source_deep_link":null,"source_feed":false,"editable":true,"like_config":null,"title_ad_pic":null,"title_ad_url":null,"title_ad_deep_link":null,"answer_comment":null,"answer_count":0,"answer_users":null,"bonus_screen_name":null,"fundx_tag":null,"extend_st_feed_info":{"stock_event_time":0,"stock_event_type":null,"change_event_color":null,"is_future_event":false,"stock_event_id":null,"stock_event_message":null,"original_text_length":1957,"disputed_status":false,"excellent_status":"false"},"stock_list":[{"symbol":"SH600187","type":"11"},{"symbol":"SH600839","type":"11"},{"symbol":"SZ300184","type":"11"}],"reply_user_images":null,"reply_user_count":0,"fundx_symbol":null,"hot_new_rank":null,"image_info_list":null,"extend_st_home_page":{"ip_location":"辽宁","st_mention_stock_count":4,"ai_card":null,"ai_status":false},"recommend_cards":null,"pic":"","forbidden_retweet":false,"text":"
在传统的国人认知里,股市是经济的晴雨表,经济好,股市才会好,其实这话对也不对。正确的地方在于,经济和股市深度绑定这个观点是正确的,在经济强劲时期股市必然是向好的;而错处也恰恰在于,经济是有周期的,而股市向好是有趋势的,如果画两条波动线,一条代表经济一条代表股市,虽然在加速阶段两者会并驾齐驱,但在相当一段时间内,两者并非平行状态。由此,我们引出第一个话题,牛市是如何启动的。
到底是经济先好转然后股市才企稳向上,还是股市先见底后经济才慢慢向好?这看似是先有鸡还是先有蛋的逻辑问题,实则是认知问题。首先我们要清楚,如果把所有产业经济定义为实体经济,那么股市对应的就是虚拟经济。而虚拟在经济良好状况时正常状态下映射实体的过程,也就是股价伴随企业业绩不断提升的而上涨的过程,也就是各位熟知的所谓“价值投资”的过程;其次我们还要明白,股市是有预期性的,换句话说,在股市里想赚价投的钱,要具有快人一步的调研能力。比如一家实体企业经历漫长的去库存周期(业绩亏损),在某个季度开始扭亏为盈,并逐渐趋势性向好,财务报表开始越来越漂亮,roe逐渐改善恢复高增长,这个过程可能要经历至少1-3个季度才能确认,但股价很大可能是在去库存的末尾阶段就开始逐渐驻底,当第一个季度财报出来确认开始扭亏之时,股价也许已经翻倍甚至几倍了。这个提前启动的过程,就叫做股市的预期性。99%的人不愿去做、去学、也就不具备提前判断的能力,但这些韭菜会把莫名启动的个股冠以一个非常韭菜的统称:“有小道消息”,把做了大量调研提前埋伏进去的资金起另一个统称:“狗庄”。我没兴趣在这里对这种幼稚且无知的行为浪费笔墨,毕竟任何资本市场都确实存在这种情况,但请各位思考一个问题,如果这不是一只个股呢?是一个行业呢?我常和各位说,资本市场是嗜血的战场,人的认知决定格局,格局决定你手中拿的是什么武器,也决定你最终在这里取得的收益。所以我们此刻把格局再放大一些,如果这甚至不仅是一个行业板块,而是整个A股市场呢?如果你用心看到这里,相信已经懂了我要表达的本意。对整个市场的调研,我所用的武器就是我常和各位说的“左手宏观,右手技术”。所以对于是先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题,我的答案是,股市先行,经济滞后兑现。
这里我再给各位普及一个知识点,便于理解上面的观点,就是美林时钟周期。大的经济体都会遵循经济周期,这不以人或国的意志为转移,在过去一百多年以来,美林时钟周期无论在东西方的证券市场和经济周期发展史上,都被无数次印证过。当然偶尔某个国家会试图让某个阶段滞后出现,但想规避甚至周期逆行,历史上没有先例。在梅林时钟里,经济周期被分成四大象限:过热、滞涨、衰退、复苏。我们和美国处在不同的象限之中,我个人认为是在对角状态,我们正在经历衰退期,拼命在往复苏期过度和试探;美国正处于过热期,拼命在试图保持停留在此处更多时日,拒绝进入滞涨期,更恐惧后面的衰退。
聊到这里,我知道一小部分人又要说扯淡,美国为何可以长牛?日本股市不也历史新高?欧洲主要经济体的股市也涨了多少年?嗯,有道理,但我不想在本文里继续展开聊它们,我只给你们结论:美国做为全球第一大经济体实行的是霸权主义,美元起码此刻和未来20年都依然还是这个星球上的第一货币,美国已经竭尽所能在美林时钟里改变了某些细节属性,但大的趋势不可阻挡和避免。等我们能取代它之后,要不要也走霸权这条路暂且不提,但在这之前是无法靠复制它们这套强盗流程发展经济和股市的。至于欧美和日韩为何也走的这么好?愿意当狗,愿意舍弃未来换及时行乐,那我们的股市也可以和它们一样,这就是我给各位的观点结论,所以嚷嚷着别人家股市好的,我就问你一个问题,你愿意跪下当狗吗?
回到正题,我知道接下来各位还要问什么,对于一轮牛市的启动逻辑听懂了,但实际操作上,经济不振这么多年了,到底何时才是那个关键的“困境反转的转折点”?其实这个问题也并不难讲,当下A股最大问题是什么?是没有流动性,长此以往,A股将逐渐港股化。成交量越来越少,亏钱的躺平,外资撤退,市场没人交易。干涸的土地长不出浓密的庄稼,这是熊市的本源。那么如果注水呢?只要有足够的水源,无论是细水长流(长牛),还是大水漫灌(疯牛),都会让久旱的土地迎来质变,我相信对于这一点,各位是认同的吧。既然达成共识,那么就需要引出下一章内容,水从何来。我先透个底,内外皆有水源,且内外相互牵制。外水自然是目前大量撤出的外资,而要明白外资如何才能去而复返,核心中的核心就是美联储降息。
所以下一章降息篇,我会重点和各位聊:
美联储降息对我们来说究竟意味着什么,搞清楚这一点,各位才能对降息的必要性有一个清晰的认知,对降息周期(长度、幅度)有一个大致判断。$国中水务(SH600187)$ $四川长虹(SH600839)$ $力源信息(SZ300184)$