Bear_Prince

回复@Gengar: 看看下周的PCE和JOLTS//@Gengar:回复@Bear_Prince:今天PMI超了一点预期，市场又开始摇摆了 [吐血]

作者借由今天duration pull back，再次买入TLT upside。今天weekly jobless claim再次高于estimate，同时prior week数据revised higher。而再通胀数据这块，作者expect新一轮通胀数据进一步下行同时并可能below estimate due to shelter部分继续normalize下调，以及car insurance部分继续减弱。

重新建仓IWM - 期权交易

6月以来rates持续走低，这里可以作为一个反面例子来diss一下依赖技术面的策略。乍一看似乎5月底failed to breakout而继续下行通道，然后突然暴拉breakout。可能你会认为这只是个特例，然而这种反技术面的price action在rates market笔笔皆是。甚至在equity market, 也可以去backtest一些所谓的k线...

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回复@Bear_Prince: 30yr auction 1.5bps through. It tells how institutions think of inflation prints. Long end 的上涨还没有结束。明天有umich 数据。I think inflation expectation continues to go down. My opinion only not financial advice//@Bear_Prince:回复@Bear_Prince:What can I ...

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What can I say. headline PPI -0.2% vs +0.1%, core ppi 0.0% vs +0.3%, weekly jobless another beat 242k vs 225k, Fed has no room being hawkish

Don't let it fool you 2.0 - CPI & FOMC 后记

原本打算留到周尾再落笔，但今天想法比较多。
首先going into CPI预期如下：
CPI came in with both headline and Core weaker vs consensus. Specifically Core came in 0.16% MoM vs 0.28% consensus。而annulized 3.4%是3年来最低的reading。从细节来看，shelter仍然居高不下，但重要的...

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回复@阿柴Doge: 我先写个commentary吧：CPI came in weaker across board. Both headline and core MoM and YoY weaker vs consensus. Like I said at last month CPI print, 通胀数据MoM主要的contributors shelter

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回复@气质的赚钱铁骑: NFP 分establishment survey和household survey。while establishment survey has a much more new hiring than est. Household survey shows UR at 4.0% vs 3.9%。有人会问为什么more job added但unemployment 反而beat呢？it has to do with 这两survey的difference以及增...

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回复@Bear_Prince: Jobless 229k vs 220k with prior week also revised up. Making 3 out of 4 labor market data weaker//@Bear_Prince:回复@Bear_Prince:ADP came in weaker 152k vs 173k, prior revised weaker as well. So far playing weaker labor market this week has working out 2/4

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回复@绿油油的小九: 是这样的，这是一个可以玩一辈子的游戏，暂时不用太在意当前账户得失（当然盈利总是开心…)。弄清楚逻辑，找到适合自己的分析方法和管理方式更重要。我觉得很多人不愿意花时间去学习研究，于是错误认为一些逻辑知识并没有带来实际收益（也许根本上的理解和思维方式就不对，或者...

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回复@Zack_Capital: 这个基本上已经price in, 可以看front end ester vs ff or sofr m4 的spread。如果当前both price as 0 cut for ECB and fed 那么我同意你的观点，ECB dovish surprise it’s better hedge dollar short, 目前看的front end price, ECB deliver cut 不会对dollar as basket 有...

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回复@Bear_Prince: ADP came in weaker 152k vs 173k, prior revised weaker as well. So far playing weaker labor market this week has working out 2/4//@Bear_Prince:回复@Bear_Prince:Jolts big miss对应我昨天提到的对这周labor market 数据的悲观，当然at minimum对TLT利好

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回复@Bear_Prince: Jolts big miss对应我昨天提到的对这周labor market 数据的悲观，当然at minimum对TLT利好//@Bear_Prince:回复@绿油油的小九:是的 ISM会用在很多recession model里面，我的个人意见是Fed has held peak rate for too long。今天bond up, dollar down，gold up但是equity 开始去p...

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回复@Bear_Prince: This. What a wild day. 我又想用”Don’t let it fool you again”。PCE and Chicago pmi favors risky asset, selloff past few days were really the aggressive rotation into month end rebalance and maybe some about Trump Verdict. Take away from this week is inflat...

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回复@ZK_Capital: I like setup of AMD，我认为她在some point，会成为NVDA的竞争者。还有其他的机会挺多的，NVDA我已经move on了，holding stock就可以了//@ZK_Capital:回复@Bear_Prince:愿闻其详，也是semi sector吗

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回复@ZK_Capital: 很棒~ 我也打算今天止盈所有NVDA upside calls。股票会继续留着如果到1200 sell upside calls 来lock一些profit//@ZK_Capital:回复@Bear_Prince:跟大佬更新下操作，1150 call spread止盈了，因为跳开所以没roll over call spread，感觉会回撤一波杀一波5/31到期的期权，想这周...

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回复@zjyhnd: 你好！如果有人昨天问我NVDA rally有没有可能SPX反而sell off, 那我应该会觉得他吃错药了。PMI中的一些指标在很多的recession model里是很强的factor，而strong service PMI又反应了一些food,restaurant, airfare的strong demand, strong demand会推高inflation expectation,导致bond...

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回复@Bear_Prince: NVDA earning 非常solid, 符合作者猜测盘中一度涨11%大于implied move。但不得不承认没有预料到市场今天会sell off。sell off的原因似乎跟PMI有关，但是显得很离奇，明天再看看什么情况。今天有买入一些个股的upside calls//@Bear_Prince:回复@ZK_Capital:大家都很害怕，虽然预...

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回复@ZK_Capital: 不错的我也认为 NVDA短期内到 1100左右可能性很大，structure也没有问题//@ZK_Capital:回复@ZK_Capital:intrinsic value/cost premium 大概在3.6

Several is how many - 期权交易

Duration在过去几天retreat from上周CPI day的高点。在没有过多经济数据出台以及多位Fed talking heads的情况下，过去几天市场缩量selling $美国国债20+年ETF-iShares(TLT)$ 。作者一直在静待合适时间再次买入。而今天Chris Waller的讲话，让作者认为时机差不多了。Chris Waller 和 James Bullard...

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