新闻/面临压力的远洋航运公司在炎热的市场上瞄准长期合同

News / Ocean carriers under pressure target long-term contracts in febrile market

By Nick Savvides 12/10/2021
Time and tides wait for no-one and, so it seems, after the flood comes the ebb tide.
Shipping lines seeking renewal of contracts with customers are looking to lock shippers into long-term deals while the fevered market continues to rage.
However, some shippers are questioning the logic, as 2021 comes to an end, even with rates riding high, full ships, a capacity restriction imposed through congestion at major destination ports and a lack of equipment further restricting trade. Markets, it seems, have no way to go but down, according to some.
Carriers are looking to shift customers onto two-year terms for 2022, with some looking at even longer periods, of three or even four years. Shippers too are taking the longer view, with one European forwarder asking: “What are the dynamics the lines are looking at?”

作者:尼克·萨维德斯2021年10月12日
时间和潮汐不等人,似乎洪水过后就是退潮。


寻求与客户续签合同的航运公司正寻求将托运人锁定在长期交易中,而狂热的市场仍在继续肆虐。


然而,一些托运人质疑这一逻辑,因为2021年即将结束,即使运价居高不下,船舶满载,主要目的港拥堵造成的运力限制以及设备匮乏进一步限制了贸易。根据一些人的说法,市场似乎除了下跌之外别无选择。


运营商正在考虑将客户转移到2022年的两年期,一些运营商甚至考虑更长的期限,即三年甚至四年。托运人也采取了更长远的观点,一位欧洲货运代理问道:“这些航线的动态是什么?”


He said there were many newbuildings coming in 2023, and the massive influx of capacity is likely to see rates soften. But he questions whether ports will be able to handle all the new vessels and “will that force rates back up?”, he asks.
It may be that some lines, particularly those with long-term exposures to very high charter rates, are looking to lock-in rates that will allow them to meet those obligations.
According to one European shipper, the spread of rate indications on contracts from base ports in China and other parts of Asia are between $8,000 and $15,000 per 40ft, with rates for 20ft containers being quoted at much higher than 50% of the 40ft price, placing a penalty on the smaller containers.
Moreover, the shipper said: “Carrier haulage has seen proposed 50% increases on costs on quotes we have had. A mantra shippers all over the world have used is that, while base rates may be stable, the myriad surcharges push up the final rate payable to astronomical levels.
In the US, the shortage of drivers is more acute than in Europe and Asia, made more difficult by the lack of trailers to transport containers. Even so, China specialist Jon Monroe reports that rates did soften as a result of the national Golden Week holiday.
“We are expecting the market to pick up again within the next week. Nothing is a certainty, but the backlogs are real and demand for space is still strong. The silver lining in this very dark cloud is the reprieve from the holiday and temporary closures of the factories should allow the US ports to catch up with the processing of containers through their terminals,” he writes.
According to Mr Monroe, the events of the past 18 months, during the pandemic, have given the logistics industry a cold shower.
“Supply chains are now at the forefront of every executive’s mind when it comes to forecasting and planning,” he said.
Carriers expect continued pressure on both lead times and costs through to the end of next year, at a time they are making record profits.
“Many of the carriers have all but walked away from their contracts, pushing importers to the more costly spot and premium rates. With 2023 not too far away, carriers may find themselves with more capacity than demand once again. More than 5m teu of new capacity will be introduced into the global liner trade,” explained Mr Monroe, adding: “Can global trade, and specifically the US, sustain the volumes we are seeing today?”
Former Barclays analyst and industry veteran Mark McVicar told The Loadstar the market was “gradually returning to normal”. He believes the logjams and challenges within global supply chains will be worked through as demand settles to more realistic levels.
“All the sensible lines said they don’t expect these rate levels to last,” he explained.
However, Mr McVicar pointed to an orderbook that now stands at fractionally over 20% of the fleet, and he expects “markets will start discounting before those vessels are delivered”.
Some carriers will suffer as a result, with carriers having sealed capacity at very high rates with long contracts beyond the 2023 period, when much of the orderbook will be delivered.
“Some lines will get caught, that’s always the way,” explained Mr McVicar. “But I don’t expect it to be any of the big lines; it will be marginal operators” he added.
The analyst did, however, sound a note of caution for shippers, pointing out that the lines were badly caught out in 2009 after the currency crisis, and in the first quarter of 2020, they were very nervous of a return to those levels of income.
Carriers got through the tricky second and third quarters of 2020 much better than they had expected through cutting capacity, so even though share prices fell the lines were in decent shape.
“The lines moved to a more dynamic tonnage management system,” explained Mr McVicar. “The question is, are they going to be alive to managing their capacity in the future? They know how to do it now, after the pandemic, and would hopefully have learnt those lessons.”



他表示,2023年将有许多新运力,产能的大量涌入可能会导致利率下降。但他质疑港口是否能够处理所有新船只,他问,“这会迫使费率回升吗?”。


可能是一些业务线,特别是那些长期面临极高租船费率的业务线,正在寻求锁定费率,以使其能够履行这些义务。


根据一位欧洲托运人的说法,中国和亚洲其他地区基地港口合同上的费率指示价差在每40英尺8000至15000美元之间,20英尺集装箱的费率远高于40英尺价格的50%,这对较小的集装箱造成了处罚。



此外,托运人还表示:“承运人运输的报价已被提议增加50%的成本。世界各地的托运人所使用的一个咒语是,虽然基本费率可能是稳定的,但无数的附加费将最终应付费率推高至天文数字的水平。


在美国,司机短缺的情况比欧洲和亚洲更为严重,这是由于缺乏拖车运输集装箱造成的。即便如此,中国问题专家乔恩·门罗(Jon Monroe)报告说,由于国家黄金周假期,司机短缺率确实有所下降。


“我们预计市场将在下周再次回升。没有什么是确定的,但积压是真实的,对空间的需求仍然强劲。在这片乌云中的一线希望是假期的暂缓,工厂的临时关闭将使美国港口能够通过“他们的终端,”他写道。


根据门罗先生的说法,过去18个月在流感大流行期间发生的事件给物流业带来了一场冷水浴。


他表示:“在预测和规划方面,供应链现在是每位高管的首要考虑。”。



航空公司预计,到明年年底,交货期和成本都将面临持续的压力,而此时他们正获得创纪录的利润。


“许多航空公司几乎都放弃了他们的合同,将进口商推向更昂贵的现货和溢价。2023年不远了,航空公司可能会发现自己的运力再次超过需求。超过500万标准箱的新运力将被引入全球班轮贸易中,”门罗解释道:“全球贸易,特别是美国,能维持我们今天看到的贸易量吗?”



前巴克莱分析师、行业资深人士马克·麦克维卡尔(Mark McVicar)对《负荷之星》表示,市场正在“逐渐恢复正常”。他相信,随着需求稳定到更现实的水平,全球供应链中的僵局和挑战将得到解决。



他解释说:“所有明智的公司都表示,他们预计这些利率水平不会持续下去。”。


然而,McVicar先生指出,一份订单目前只占船队的20%多一点,他预计“在这些船只交付之前,市场将开始打折”。


一些运营商将因此受到影响,运营商在2023年之后将以非常高的费率拥有密封容量,并签订长期合同,届时大部分订单将交付。


麦克维卡尔解释说:“有些线路会被截获,这永远是一种方式。但我不认为这是任何一条大线路;这将是边缘运营商。”他补充道。


然而,这位分析师确实为托运人提出了警告,他指出,在2009年货币危机后,航运公司陷入了严重困境,而在2020年第一季度,他们非常担心收入会回到这些水平。


2020年第二季度和第三季度,航空公司通过削减运力度过了难关,比他们预期的要好得多,因此,尽管股价下跌,但航线状况良好。


麦克维卡尔解释说:“生产线转向了一个更具活力的吨位管理系统。问题是,他们是否能够在未来管理好自己的运力?他们知道如何在疫情爆发后做到这一点,并希望能够从中吸取教训。”


He concluded that there was “a risk of overshoot on [falling] rates,” but the lines were starting from a much stronger position, so while some may falter, the majority – certainly the larger lines – will maintain healthy returns.
“The hope is that we come out of the pandemic with a more sensible industry,” said Mr McVicar.


他得出的结论是,“利率(下跌)有过度调整的风险”,但这些线是从一个更强劲的位置开始的,因此尽管一些线可能会动摇,但大多数线——当然是较大的线——将保持健康的回报。
麦克维卡尔先生说:“我们希望我们能以一个更明智的行业走出疫情。”。

$中远海控(SH601919)$$中远海控(01919)$$东方海外国际(00316)$
Android转发:1回复:5喜欢:3

全部评论

风快风快10-14 07:47

这不是马勇吧

喜迎未来10-13 22:45

勇哥威武

护舒宝10-13 22:23

机器翻译的吧,看着别扭,不过大意看明白了。未来两年的高价看来是没啥问题。市场对于两年后新运力投入是否会对运价产生影响存在分歧。目前20%的新增运力其实很多是疫情前计划的,大多都是替换老旧运力。妥妥的了,大家持股待涨吧

YanQingqdp10-13 22:16

勇哥辛苦

广东冯志杰10-13 21:52