$新普罗维登斯收购(NPA)$ $蔚来(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 

这个老哥梭哈了天基无线: 79k Commons and 493k Warrants

为此他写一份详细的分析 (网页链接). 还有其他一些网友从各个方面的分析,值得一读. 如果有需要我可以帮忙翻译一下,希望不会延迟你的投资决定 :)

Invest in the Mobile Space Provider that Will Disrupt the Entire Wireless Industry

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TLDR: Long $NPA because its patented protected, transformational space-based cellular broadband network will enable full global wireless coverage ANYWHERE in the world. SpaceMobile has the ability to be a game-changing kingmaker, which is why key players like Vodafone, Rakuten, Samsung, and American Tower have invested over $300M.

Basic Intro:

SpaceMobile (Ticker: NPA) has created the first and only space-based cellular broadband network that can provide coverage across the entire globe

Patented protected, spaced-based cellular broad network will provide coverage anywhere in the world

Compatible with all +5B mobile phones in service

Provides broadband 4G/5G data speeds with low latency

Carriers that work with SpaceMobile will enjoy absolute and unparalleled cellular coverage; SpaceMobile will be a game changer that REDEFINES the wireless carrier landscape into Haves and Have Nots

SpaceMobile’s technology has been validated

Launched and successfully tested service with BlueWalker-1 satellite in 2019

+$100M initial capital raised from strategic investors including Vodafone, Rakuten, American Tower, and Samsung NEXT

Another $230M in a new private funding round led by the same investors at $10/share, in addition to +$232M in SPAC funding, gives SpaceMobile nearly $420M net cash to fully fund Phase 1 launch in 2022

Binding, mutually exclusive commercial agreements covering +1.3B subscribers in place with Vodafone, AT&T, Telefonica, Indosat, Telecom Argentina, Telstra, Tigo, and Liberty LatAm

SpaceMobile has built an insurmountable competitive advantage

+750 patent claims that support underlying technology

161 space scientists and engineers with 40 prior satellite builds/launches

Industry-leading strategic partners/investors with a deep technology moat and customer base

Launch of 20 satellites in 2022 with commercial service in 2023

Phase 1 cash flow will support Phase 2, Phase 3, and Phase 4 launches

SpaceMobile will be the kingmaker in the wireless market, creating clear winners (its partners) and losers amongst Wireless Carriers

AT&T, Vodafone, and Telefonica, representing +1.1B Wireless customers, recognized this and decided to partner with SpaceMobile

SpaceMobile has signed marquee Wireless Carriers to mutually exclusive contracts in key regions to get scale and demonstrate its business model, starting with the Equatorial region

For the remaining regions, SpaceMobile could auction off partnerships to a single Wireless Carrier which could generate substantial economics

Wireless Carriers that SpaceMobile chooses to work with will drive substantial capex savings over time

Partnering with SpaceMobile will reduce the need to utilize spectrum and buildout expensive towers/backhaul to expand coverage of existing networks

The competitive landscape in the US Wireless market may be forever changed by SpaceMobile

If AT&T offers customers 100% 5G Global Coverage, how can Verizon and T-Mobile compete?

How will Verizon keep its premium pricing and advertise “America’s 2nd best network for coverage”?

Verizon and T-Mobile already feel the pressure and are actively voicing concern and opposition to the FCC claiming that SpaceMobile’s satellites may interfere with their networks

Enterprise value of $381B for Verizon and $260B for T-Mobile could be up for grabs

AT&T also had much to lose given its $40B commitment to the US Gov to build out FirstNet, the US’s public safety network that is used during disasters. Why? Because SpaceMobile could make that network less relevant

American Tower, the largest cell tower company in the world ($129B EV), is increasing its investment by participating in the $230M PIPE at $10/share. This is a big hedge for the company because SpaceMobile’s technology could be an existential threat to the cell tower industry.

Financials:

Partnering with Wireless Carriers through a 50/50 revenue share model provides immediate access to customers and removes need for marketing, customer acquisition or backhaul costs

Project 9M subs in 2023 growing to 373M subs in 2027 (153% CAGR)

2027 projections represent under 30% of current potential customer base

Revenue to grow rapidly from $181M in 2023 to $9.6B in 2027 (170% CAGR)

Modest global ARPU assumption of $2.15 by 2027

Significant operating leverage will accelerate profitability once satellite constellation is launched and operational

Sufficient capital to fund upfront capital investments, with +$420M in net cash

+$1B in EBITDA by 2024, only 1 year into commercial service

EBITDA margins to expand rapidly and reach +90% in steady state

$16.3B of unlevered free cash flow by 2030, leaving capital for reinvestments and R&D to expand service and extend market leadership

SpaceMobile could institute a sizeable dividend comfortably beginning in 2024E or 2025E

Trading:

At $11, SpaceMobile is valued at 1.6x 2024E EBITDA compared to:

Growth Space Companies: Iridium 13.5x, Virgin Galactic 26.0x, Momentus 4.7x

US Wireless Carriers: AT&T 7.1x, T-Mobile 8.3x, Verizon 7.5x

At 4.3x to 7.2x 2024E EBITDA, SpaceMobile would be valued at $25 - $40 per share, a conservative estimate based on low-growth carriers as comps

Highly attractive risk/reward at $11risking 90c to potentially make $14 - $29

NPA has a downside floor of $10.10 in cash NAV up until the merger closes

The deal will likely close in late February to early March 2021.

Stock supply dynamics:

Customary post merger 180-day lockup for Sponsor

Existing SpaceMobile shareholders subject to 12-month lock-up

Employee stock options subject to 2-year lock-up

$230M PIPE anchored by long-term strategic investors, including Vodafone, Rakuten, and American Tower, subject to S-1 registration process post merger

Disclosure: 79k Commons and 493k Warrants

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edit: I didn't mean to rag on OP this hard. You put up a lot of great info. Just wanted to give some info on the risks because this is really a great investment and knowing the risks increases confidence. LONG $NPA 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

I'm gonna fill in the missing gaps in this DD. I do not trust any DD that does not mention any downside because that is how sleazy salesmen work.

OP answers a lot of the upside questions like "what is the idea", "will it make money", "does it have a moat". These are great questions, but the one question you must always ask yourself before investing is "how could this go wrong". Because once you've answered that you will be able to make a proper risk/reward assessment. OP omits this question and for that I see this as a pure pump post.

Nevertheless, here's the analysis on "what could go wrong".

This tech is unproven. OP states "SpaceMobile (Ticker: NPA) has created the first and only space-based cellular broadband network that can provide coverage across the entire globe" but that is not true. They have one prototype satellite which does not have the huge antenna/dish that their real satellites will have. They are working to create this tech, but they do not have it yet. The other risk with the tech is that there is no way for us to validate it ourselves. With something like canoo, we see Jay Leno driving it out and about. We see that they have revenue. With this, there's none of that.

On top of the tech being unproven, the problem they are trying to solve is exceptionally difficult. This is above even starlink. Even the most optimistic AST investor should know that there is a plausible chance of failure, especially given the tremendous costs of the satellites. Even one satellite malfunction will cost $50 million for the satellite alone and many more millions in lost r&d and time.

This project is insanely expensive. They say they have just enough to cover the initial launch (20 sats) needed to start producing revenue. They have maybe $30 million left over. Things can't go wrong or they run out of cash. Now to be clear they can always raise more money with debt/equity in the future, but they'd really like to see the system work and generating revenue before doing that.

Regulatory fighting. NASA is not happy with their huge sats. Other network providers are not happy with killing their business. They'll also need to pass other federal hurdles before becoming operational. These 3 problems could be headaches for the company.

OK, those are the things that "could go wrong" with this investment. Now with that, you should have enough information to make a decision. I've made mine, and that is to invest heavy into NPA. I bought 800 shares this morning (before the pop thankfully). I believe this has great potential to pop before the merger off hype alone, so I will probably sell half if it gets to $20, and keep the rest for years as a bet on a moonshot. If this works out it'll be a 100-bagger. But if it doesn't for the reasons above it will be dead in the water.

TL;DR - Due Diligence means assessing the risks. OP has failed in doing that, so I'm doing it for them.

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You forgot that the US government has appropriated $9billion subsidize companies to do what AST is doing

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They plan to have very large satellites with 900 sq meter antenna (mentioned in several articles) and 60 dBW EIRP (from FCC licensing). This means these satellites will be hard to maneuver, power-hungry, require a giant deployable, and have a very complicated harness; likely 1,200+ kg bus size. That is a HUGE satellite for a 700km altitude- by comparison both Oneweb and Spacex are about the size of a washing machine and under 200kg. Collisions are imminent, hence NASA opposition.

Look, I love the idea, and this concept is the future of satcoms, but there is zero chance they design, build, test, launch and operate 20 of these for something like $250M. Launch costs alone at almost $3k/kg on falcon 9 will approach $75M, not including transport, integration, testing, etc.

On top of that 20 satellites is nowhere near enough to provide consistent coverage at mid inclination orbits (which is what they’ve applied for per FCC applications). This company won’t see revenue till 2024 earliest.

As a comm sat industry worker this is my first impression. Take everything space with major salt. Oneweb had over $1.5 BILLION invested and only launched 70 small satellites with TRL 9 tech before they went bankrupt. Cost and schedule of satellite systems are consistently underestimated.

I will probably take small position for SPAC hype play then exit to see how it plays out for longer term. And to reiterate, this would be a totally badass service that would absolutely change the world. That does not mean it will be profitable.

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Why Intelsat’s 5G dreams are crashing to Earth:

“But the plan ignited heated and bipartisan opposition in Congress to letting foreign-based satellite companies collect such huge sums. Among current C-band holders, Intelsat and SES are legally based in Luxembourg, Telesat is Canadian, and Eutelsat Communications is based in France.

That led the FCC at the end of February to adopt an order mandating a government-run auction of the C-band airwaves, which will delay and greatly limit payments to Intelsat and its rivals.“

For this reason, it's actually considered as advantage of AST SpaceMobile, which is an US company.

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