$奈飞(NFLX)$ 22Q2
二季度营收,利润和用户数全部beat,经营利润miss。
只要预期够差,坏消息也还行。
三季度指引不好,但用户数恢复了正增长,盘后涨了8%。
二季度的用户数,主要是拉美地区大超预期,亚太小超预期,北美和欧洲都是符合预期的。


Revenue $7.87B vs est. $8.03B
Q2 EPS $3.53 vs est. $2.96
Netflix had global streaming paid net additions in the quarter of -970K, versus an expected loss of 2 million.
Guidance Q3:
Revenue $7.84B vs est. $8.08BEPS of $2.14 vs est. EPS $2.77
The company expects to add 1 million global streaming paid net additions in Q3 vs est. 1.83m全部miss
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电话会议几个重点
首次提到了广告业务的UE,非常乐观,认为一些非订阅制低消费用户,sharing account 用户,取消订阅用户会是主要的群体。
And when we run the models and talking to brands, advertisers to Microsoft, we look at the monetization that is the complement to that subscription part of the ad-supported offering, and we're quite optimistic that the unit economics work to make that monetization equal or maybe even better than what we would see on the comparable side for the non-ad, subscription-only kind of plans. So we think that this is, again, expansive from a member reach perspective, but also neutral to positive on the unit economics and monetization. So that's great for us for -- obviously from a business perspective.
关于capex,op margin和FCF
"As you said, we're expecting to spend on cash content spend about $17 billion this year...when we look out the next couple of few years, we'll be probably right around in that ZIP code, which puts us in a good place."
OP margin:19-20%
FCF:Well, it will be more than the roughly $1 billion.
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估值:
21年 rev,eps:297亿,11.24,op margin 20.8%
22年E rev,eps:323亿(8% yoy),10.8, op margin 19.5%
fwd pe 18.5(200usd),近期低点162=》15pe
mc/fcf = 90
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奈飞的流媒体会员制生意逻辑没有修复,只能靠非发达国家的用户做数字看。广告业务会在23年开始发力,24年显著影响topline,如果营收增长到mid teens,我个人认为mid teens pe就算慷慨了,考虑到fcf和竞争格局
雪球转发:1回复:2喜欢:1
引用:
$奈飞(NFLX)$
奈飞一季报崩的超预期。
不考虑退出俄的70万用户影响,新增用户只有50万,相比指引的250万,少了近200万,而且是除了apac,所有区域全崩,同时apac的增长,也是很大程度上建立在在印度大减价的前提下的低质量增长。
二季度的用户增长指引,也可以用惊悚来形容。
对...

全部评论

_喵喵呜_07-25 23:50

如果广告可以给非订阅用户,那可能现有的订阅用户直接不订阅选择看广告了,到时掉的更快

麦麸泡泡糖07-20 09:28

中美爱奇艺产生现金流能力都差