US consumer staples

$日常消费品ETF-SPDR(XLP)$ 

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奇点那瞬间07-26 06:51

网页链接 warning sends stock price plunging, renews retail worries
Walmart Tumbles After Cutting Full-Year Profit Outlook网页链接

奇点那瞬间07-13 04:34

$可口可乐(KO)$ 

可口可乐

1980年,41亿市值,56亿营收,4.2亿利润,PE不足10倍。
2022年1月,3000亿市值,380亿营收,100亿利润,近30PE。
42年,市值增长75倍,利润增长不到25倍,营收增长不到7倍。
特别值得注意的是,2012年营收480亿见顶,此后10年,营收不断下降,到2022年年初,只有380亿,利润几乎没有变化,但市值从1800亿到2900亿。






可口可乐recession-proof,但不能抵御lockdown

For many people, enjoying a Coke means picking it up at a store and bringing it home. But about 50% of the company's revenue comes from sales away from home: think of bars, restaurants, and stadiums. Certainly, Coca-Cola has felt the impact of social distancing and closures.

2007 adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.29
2008 adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.51 (17% increase)
2009 adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.47 (2.6% decline)
2010 adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.75 (19% increase)
2011 adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.92 (10% increase)
2012 adjusted earnings-per-share: $1.97 (2.6% increase)

Coca-Cola In The Great Depression不亏钱,且继续分红,非常recession-proof
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奇点那瞬间07-13 03:34

$百事(PEP)$ 
PepsiCo Boosts Outlook as Consumers Keep Buying Despite Inflation网页链接
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百事完全把inflation带来的成本提高转移给了消费者。不仅没有衰退,还提高了指引,recession-proof。在经济不好的时候,人们借可乐消愁?rev主要是asp提高,vol全球微微提升,其中na是下降的。
10q:网页链接
百事产品:网页链接


第二季度营收202.3亿美元,高于市场普遍预期的195.1亿美元,同比增长5.2%。
第二季度每股调整后收益1.86美元,高于分析师预期的1.74美元。
第二季度利润14.3亿美元,上年同期23.6亿美元,同比下降39%。【Operating profit decreased 34% and operating margin declined 6.0 percentage points. Operating profit performance was primarily driven b y a 37-percentage-point impact of the charges associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a 7-percentage-point impact of the Brand Portfolio Impairment Charges, partially offset by a 2.5-percentage-point impact of higher mark-to-market gains on commodity derivatives. Operating profit performance was also positively impacted by net revenue growth and productivity savings, partially offset by certain operating cost increases and a 36-percentage-point impact of higher commodity costs. Additionally, gains on sales of assets positively contributed 5 percentage points to operating profit performance. The operating margin decline primarily reflects the impact of the charges associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Brand Portfolio Impairment Charges.】


具体来看其产品线在北美市场的营收表现:

受到Cheetos和Doritos的销售增长拉动,Frito-Lay北美公司的有机收入增长了14%,不过排除定价或货币波动的影响,销量下降了2%。

北美饮料部门的有机收入增长了9%,但其销量下降了1%,佳得乐、Aquafina和Lifewtr在本季度录得两位数的增长。百事公司今年早些时候将其Tropicana果汁业务出售给了私募股权公司PAI Partners,资产剥离影响其营收。

Quaker Foods成为北美地区唯一实现销量增长的部门,在大米和面食、燕麦片和饼干的两位数增长的帮助下,其有机收入攀升了18%,销量增长了2%。

指引:
此外,百事公司还在指引方面提高了一项关键销售指标,其预计全年全球有机营收将增长10%,高于此前预测的增速8%。

电话会议:
百事公司报告称,第二季度收入同比增5.2%主要因为其平均售价上涨了12%。近几个月来,百事公司通过提价来帮助抵消卡车运输、包装和农业商品的成本上升。与去年同期相比,今年第一季度的价格上涨了10%,去年第四季度的价格上涨了7%。
这家全球食品和饮料巨头还预计今年下半年的成本将上升得更高,除了提价转移成本之外,百事表示其计划继续缩小产品尺寸,并部署其他方法来管理不断上升的开支。

估值:网页链接

营收最近10年一直比较稳定在~65bn usd,从20q3开始加速,突破了70bn,具体是vol带来的,还是涨价,应该是涨价的因素占大头。

net margin一直稳定在10%左右。

稳态利润大约在7bn左右,ps ratio一直在升高,从1.x =》~3

综合估值和成长,粗略看下来,好像只能给800-1000亿usd mc,目前是2300亿,170usd。但最近10年的股价是长牛,回报可观。背后的原因是?【Today a decades-long obsession with cut-price volume growth has been replaced by a focus on revenues and profits.】

The cola wars made Pepsi and Coke “the world’s best marketers”网页链接