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$英特尔(INTC)$ 22Q2
*INTEL CEO GELSINGER SAYS `CONFIDENT THIS IS THE BOTTOM' $英特尔(INTC)$
Intel Cuts Fab Buildout by $4B To Pay Billions In Dividends | First Net Loss In Over 30 Years, Cutting Fab Buildouts, But “Committed To Growing The Dividend”
Intel Gives Dour Forecast; CEO Says Third Quarter Is ‘Bottom’网页链接
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$高通(QCOM)$ 22Q2
Qualcomm Gives Lackluster Forecast, Renewing Slowdown Fears网页链接
A weaker outlook for the economy prompted Qualcomm to shave about 20 cents from its profit projection for the current period, executives said on a conference call with analysts.
Qualcomm now expects smartphone shipments to decline in the mid-single-digit percentage range in 2022 from the prior year -- a dimmer outlook than it had previously. The chipmaker’s customers are cutting back on purchases of components for midrange and lower-end Android phones as they try to work through excess inventory.
高通上个季度还很乐观，对指引，这个季度就软了
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After more than a year of negotiations, Congress is on the cusp of passing a bill to alleviate the chip shortage and shore up U.S. competitiveness with China — in part by giving $50 billion to the semiconductor industry.
The Senate voted 64-32 on Tuesday to end debate on the so-called “CHIPS+” bill. This key step, which required 60 votes, now sets the stage for final passage in the coming days.
As the key procedural step got underway, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said the effort will help "one of the most important struggles of this century."
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$恩智浦(NXPI)$
NXP Semiconductors Gives Bullish Forecast on Industrial and Auto Market Demand网页链接
In the period ended July 3, NXP reported sales increased 28% to $3.31 billion. Gross margin was 57.8%, minus certain items. The figures beat analysts’estimates.
ratios：网页链接
这公司周期性好强，margin波动非常大
Mentioned on $NXPI's call: - Not seeing any substantial weakening in auto/industrial demand - Lead times still at 52 weeks or more for more than 80% of products - Only 80% of "true demand" is covered by supply even after "risk-adjusting" the backlog
$ASML on semiconductors: "Some customers are indicating they are seeing signs of slowing demand in certain consumer-driven market segments, primarily PCs and smartphones. Other market segments like high performance computing and automotive are still seeing strong demand"
$台积电(TSM)$ 22Q2台积电二季度财报依然非常好，topline和btm line均超过预期。
三季度和全年指引均超预期，但股价反应很一般，下午被us 52bn chip act表决的消息推动，导致半导体板块都大涨。市场预计，22年会是tsm业绩增速和margin的peak。
Guides FY revenue growth mid-30% vs. prior 30% (Consensus +27%)
公司指引：
营收：2022 年营收（按美元计）将增长 30% 左右
Q3 营收指引 198~206 亿美元，中值 11.2% 环比增长（基于美元：新台币=1:29.7 假设）
毛利率指引：57.5~59.5%
营业利润率指引：47~49%
长期毛利率指引 53% 及以上不变。
资本支出：2022 年资本支出维持 2022 年 1 月法说会指引 400-440 亿美元，但由于设备问题，将把 2022 年的资本支出推到 2023 年，预计 2022 年资本支出将更接近预测区间下限。不再讨论之前的 1000 亿美元指引，会实时调整。【But it also plans to delay capital spending, an indicator of its expectations for longer-term demand. TSMC said its capital expenditure should come in at the lower end of a previously targeted range of $40 billion to $44 billion, citing longer times for equipment delivery. Asked how much of that cut will make it into 2023, executives said it was too early to tell.】
税率：2022 税率指引 10~11%，2023 有效税率增加。
公司展望：
增长：2023 年增长将由先进制程驱动。
库存：由于智能手机、PC 和消费终端细分市场的设备势头疲软，我们观察到供应链已经采取行动，预计库存水平将在 2022 年下半年下降，预计半导体供应链的过剩库存需要几个季度才能重新平衡到一个更健康的水平。我们认为库存调整可能会持续几个季度，直到 2023 年上半年。
产能：我们预计 2022 年全年产能将继续吃紧，2023 年产能利用率将保持良好。【“We expect our customers will start to take action to decrease their inventory level. A few quarters, at least into the first half of 2023, they’ll continue to do an inventory correction,” Wei told analysts on a conference call. “Our customers’ demand continues to exceed our ability to supply. We expect our capacity to be tight through the end of 2022.”】
长期需求：在未来几年，硅含量的增长将会更高，在中位数到较高的个位数百分比范围内，并支持半导体的长期结构性需求，包括 HPC，汽车，手机，IOT 等领域。
长期营收：未来几年的长期营收将在 15%-20% 的复合年增长率之间。
N3:2022 H2 量产，2023H1 有营收贡献，会对整体毛利率有 2~3 个点的稀释。预期其后平滑爬坡，HPC，手机都有驱动。
N2：在进程中，预计 2024 试产，2025 量产；我们和客户共同合作，客户更关心有效功率；chiplet 的客户占比在提升。较 N3E 同功率下 10~15% 速度提升，同速度下 20~30% 功率优化，20%+ 逻辑密度增加。
长期gpm 53%, revenue 15~20%
市场对于台积电担忧的点都有什么？
目前22年fwd pe约15
1. 22年应该是未来几年营收增速和利润率的高点
2.先进制程一骑绝尘，和三星形成双寡头格局，三星暂时良率有问题，需要时间优化提升。但非先进制程，中国未来几年会有大量产能释放，这部分的营收，依然占tsm的接近50%。
3.Intel和us chip act对tsm的长期牵制作用，tsm的下游美国企业，一定会扶持Intel的复兴计划。Intel，amd和tsm，这是一个trading pair，tsm和amd守，Intel攻，同时还有x86 vs arm在hpc市场的竞争，变量非常多。
估值：
19 20 21 22 23
rev 727亿 812亿（11.7%yoy）
gpm 46.05% 53.1% 51.63% 57%？
op income
margin
ni 303亿 328亿
margin 33.08% 38.14% 37.2% 41.6% 40.4%
LT NI(38%) 276亿 308亿
PE(220714@4439 mc) 14.6 13.5
LT PE 16 14.4
未来3年 15%-20%rev，10-15%eps，15pe，略微有周期性，中低端制程headwind。
目前的估值是合理的，并不能说特别低估。
如果有个位数pe，显然会有安全边际，比如3000亿usd以下（58usd），2023年。
新闻：
TSMC Hikes Outlook Yet Delays Spending as Uncertainty Looms网页链接
Taiwan Semiconductor's Stock Price Recover To $100? 一些关于短期的tailwind和headwind分析的不错网页链接