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$陌陌(MOMO)$随想四
陌陌优于任何其它视频直播的一点,如图,有很多房间,只是十几到几十人,仍能创造出高额收入,这就是基于地理位置分配流量的最优商业化方案,体现最佳价值,并给中长尾主播以最有力支持;表现在数据上,就是陌陌只是做了一年多的视频直播,其人均贡献的收入就已经远超了商业化多年的$欢聚时代(YY)$$天鸽互动(01980)$,鉴于yy即使做了多年的年度盛典,到现在依然能保持30%的增速,我初步判断,陌陌直播商业化的高速(高于100%)增长,应该仍能保持两年以上;

另一方面,极高的人均ARPU值,意味着,即使在争抢流量方面,陌陌有很强的优势,为获单个人头,陌陌即使付出300元仍能获利,其它竞争对手不能望其项背,因此,陌陌在推广时,更多考虑的是效益如何,能否留住用户,而无需太多顾及竞争对手;

当然,陌陌的核心优势,乃是在陌生人社交领域的绝对优势,这是陌陌的大本营,根基所在,这一领域的称得上竞争对手的是探探,但其体量只有陌陌的四五分之一,其造成的危胁尚不明显。所有做大做强的企业,无一不是先占据某块根据地,然后心无旁骛向外扩展,陌陌刚好就是处于这样的位置。

最后展望一下,如果陌陌2017年第四季度净利润能达到2亿美元,则股价在现在38元基础上再涨一倍,也是有很大可能的。当然在这过程中,情况瞬间万变,我们也是需要相机而动的。

全部讨论

赚点粮食钱2017-05-03 21:01

我身边有些小年轻拿月薪七八千的都愿意花个几百打赏主播,问原因说是与吃顿饭看个电影没啥区别,就当是娱乐。

亦舒熊和2017-05-01 00:20

我想表达的是减持行为的前后,无论多好的公司都会有大幅震荡。不像你所说的以上大公司都是上涨之类,陌陌如此频繁的减持,三个月连回调都没有,你想说正常就正常吧,赚钱就好。

yy_unicorn2017-05-01 00:09

计划11.30开始坚减持,阶段低点在11.25,你的意思是减持导致股价上涨,那你是看好陌陌要涨了,原来你一个劲忽悠人看空是给自己看多做掩护,

亦舒熊和2017-04-30 23:50

The following table sets forth certain information with respect to the selling stockholders’ beneficial ownership of our common stock as of November 30, 2013. The table does not reflect a gift of approximately 18,000,000 shares of Class B common stock that Mark Zuckerberg, our chairman and CEO, intends to make in December 2013. These shares will be converted to Class A common stock in connection with Mr. Zuckerberg’s donation.
We have determined beneficial ownership in accordance with the rules of the SEC. Except as indicated by the footnotes below, we believe, based on the information furnished to us, that the selling stockholders have sole voting and investment power with respect to all shares of Class A common stock or Class B common stock that they beneficially own, subject to applicable community property laws. Based on the information provided to us by the selling stockholders, no selling stockholder is a broker-dealer or an affiliate of a broker-dealer.
Applicable percentage ownership is based on 1,880,086,898 shares of Class A common stock and 577,964,131 shares of Class B common stock outstanding as of November 30, 2013. For purposes of computing percentage ownership after this offering, we have also assumed that 27,004,761 shares of Class A common stock will be issued by us in this offering, and that 60,000,000 shares of Class B common stock will be issued by us in connection with the exercise, in full, of an outstanding stock option by Mr. Zuckerberg, our Chairman and CEO, 41,350,000 shares of which will be converted into an equivalent number of shares of Class A common stock upon their sale in this offering. In computing the number of shares of common stock beneficially owned by the selling stockholders and the percentage ownership of the selling stockholders, we deemed to be outstanding all shares of common stock subject to options or other convertible securities held by the selling stockholders that are currently exercisable or releasable or that will become exercisable or releasable within 60 days of November 30, 2013.
Unless otherwise indicated in the footnotes below, the address of the selling stockholders is c/o Facebook, Inc., 1601 Willow Road, Menlo Park, California 94025.

自己看吧 sec原文 你说的12月19日只是文件提交接受的日期,计划11月30日就开始了,美股本身就可以先卖再披露。任何减持行为在短期内都会造成比较大的波动。

yy_unicorn2017-04-30 16:42

你忽悠谁呢?
1. 自己去翻翻历史估价走势,FB在2013.10到2013.12底,2013.10.18是个阶段股价高点,价格54.22,2013.11.25是个阶段股价地点,价格是44.82,到了2013.12.24,是另一个阶段高点,价格57.96,2013.12.31价格在54.65。不知道你所说的“2013年11月到12月期间,淡马锡、小扎、桑德伯格的减持,FB的股票就是从高位50+跳到40+”发生在哪儿?
2. Temasek, directly or through its units, sold 4.3 million A shares of social-networking company Facebook, valued at $107 million in the second quarter ended June 30,淡马锡Q2就减持完了,从2013.07.01到20113.10.18FB的价格从24.81涨到了54.22.
3. Zark 减持FB交税是发生在2013.12.19。
下次忽悠之前先做好功课,编的象一点再来忽悠。

亦舒熊和2017-04-30 13:02

2013年11月到12月期间,淡马锡、小扎、桑德伯格的减持,FB的股票就是从高位50+跳到40+,用了一个月时间填上这个缺口,自己去看sec报告和历史数据再来喷

yy_unicorn2017-04-30 09:48

以上哪只股票老大减持一次就要暴跌一次了?你看的是火星股市?12个月看到16,谁有兴趣看那么远?散户的优势就是进出快,随便多久,涨了出了就赚了,还非要等12个月。至于你, 谁关心你是谁啊,MOMO卖了就走了,还回头来再喷你,也太看得起自己了。

ecepdihvac2017-04-29 20:59

总而言之,陌陌抬轿子的人,太不专业太水,也太假了。
也许是雪球上面SB太少,实在是失败。

ecepdihvac2017-04-29 20:58

亦舒同学,同感啊,我等40做空等的花儿都谢了。
实在忍不住,最近38.6左右低仓位短空,来回做了2次,好无聊好没劲。