$牧原股份(SZ002714)$ $天邦股份(SZ002124)$ $新希望(SZ000876)$
我们的老祖宗在造词的时候，是非常朴素辩证的。危机这个词，危中有机，机会只留给有准备的企业，史诗级猪周期已经正式在全球拉开了大幕。
目前非瘟的爆发可以从OIE的官方数据来判断，注意观察我重点标注的俄罗斯“亚洲部分”疫情，招商证券讲的东北疫情爆发，已经可以认为实锤。全球生猪产业链正在面临最大的挑战。最近听说一个词叫不开心小猪，懂的人自然懂。
以下是我从OIE摘取的亚洲疫情信息：
①：8月上半个月，东欧正在大爆发，整个欧洲由于非瘟，短短的十五天内损失了161138头猪，其中仅保加利亚就损失了126,169头猪，这时候亚洲疫情相对平稳，仅2903头。与此同时，中国发生5起，其中东北3起疫情（高速检查2起，野猪一起），这个时候，中俄边境的俄罗斯同时爆发了3起疫情，疑似野猪传播，这是个征兆。
②：8月下半个月欧洲有所好转，损失下降至30000多，越南在全球累计爆发的8075起疫情中，占了绝大多数，6082起，实在是很惊人，由于中国只爆发了一百多起疫情，美国起初低估了疫情的严重性，但是越南的数据已经给美国人敲响了警钟，很多专家开始如临大敌。此时中俄边境的俄罗斯又爆发了一起。中国云南爆发一起。
③：在8.30~9.12 这半个月，欧洲有所平缓，但是亚洲还在爆发，而且是多点开花，疫情在北方有抬头的趋势。国内在宁夏有一起疫情，香港一起疫情。菲律宾爆发了第一起疫情。中俄边境的俄罗斯爆发了17起。注意，东北的边境线对面开始多点开花。从8月的4起，在短短的14天内增加了17起。
④：在9.13~9.26时间段，东欧继续爆发疫情。与此同时亚洲的疫情也有所抬头，需要注意的是，在这短短的半个月内，疫情已经传到了南韩，与此同时，广西又爆发了一起。最严重的是，中俄边境的俄罗斯境内又爆发了10起。也就是说从8.30~9.26,中俄边境的俄罗斯已经爆发了27起。
⑤：9.27~10.10，一切开始的地方肯尼亚，爆发了一起，非洲开始出现较大规模的爆发。亚洲：韩国爆发了8起，老挝爆发47起，俄罗斯亚洲部分爆发17起，东欧虽然猪群损失减少，但是疫情不断。
⑥：10.11~10.24，疫情暂时放缓，但是韩国在这短短几天爆发了12起，俄罗斯又爆发了两起。需要注意的是，中国广西又爆发了一起。
综上所述，疫情并不乐观，和去年的爆发时间何等相似，东北应该又开始了，有国际专家认为这个是野猪流窜造成的，一旦病毒在野猪种群内播撒，就很难控制。我们又不太可能学习川普建个边境墙。如下图：
最后，以一则新闻收尾：根据Pipestone兽医服务的Scott Dee博士推断，非瘟可能已经在北美出现了，这将在疫情开始的第一年对美国农业造成160亿美元的损失，并导致美国这一年无法对外出口猪肉。GIRA的Rupert Claxton认为，2019年，中国的猪肉会减产1800万吨，而2020年将会减产2400万吨。会议的最后，由我最欣赏的大佬Brett Stuart发表讲话，他再一次讲到：中国可能永远也无法恢复18年的猪种群数量，并且无法从全球进口这一块来弥补猪肉短缺，现在很多散养户明知道可能会再次中招，但是他们为了头均400美元的利润，重新冲了进来，这和赌博无异，也不利于中国的疫情控制。
Astark warning has been given to the global pork industry that African swine Fever (ASF) may already have hit North America.Speaking on the Global Meat News webinar on the epidemic, Dr Scott Dee of Pipestone Veterinary Services said he believes that ASF is already in North America despite the best efforts of the authorities to prevent it reaching the continent."The chances of keeping the virus out of North America are very slim. We import a lot of product from China that the virus can survive in. My guess is that the virus has already entered the country and enters it regularly at port level. What we have going for us is that it hasn't jumped over to pigs so we haven't seen it replicate. I think we're getting bombarded with it at port level."
Impact on the pork marketIf it does hit North America, Dee said it would have a dramatic impact on the sector. "We're [analysts] estimating a $16bn loss to the US agricultural industry in the very first year, we won't be able to export pork and there will be an impact on other proteins."He advised producers to "ramp up biosecurity to the highest levels" in order to prevent the spread of the disease.During the webinar, meat director at GIRA Rupert Claxton explained that there will be a decline of 18m tonnes in China this year with another 6m tonnes gone predicted for 2020. He warned that while this would provide an opportunity to sell pork into China over the next five years, it wouldn't last forever. Claxton added that some producers are opting to neglect domestic markets in order to make more now but that this may require a rebalancing down the line. Also speaking in the webinar was National Pig Association chief executive Zoe Davies who took us through what is being done in the UK to prevent the disease entering the country but said that current measures are not adequate and more needs to be done. Chief executive officer of Global AgriTrends Brett Stuart rounded off the presentations and warned that China may never fully recover in terms of pork production and doubted if global producers would be able to make up the shortfall. He also said that some backyard producers in China are attempting to take advantage of soaring pork prices by restarting production without waiting for a vaccine to be developed in order to make money now"These farmers are desperate and taking risks. They assume they're going get ASF again but they stand to make up to $400 per head so are taking that gamble. This desperation in the market is not good for Chinese efforts to contain ASF and is leading to irresponsible behaviour."