18.12.05 大摩相信舜宇光学(02382)股价于未来45日内下跌,发生的可能性介于70%至80%,有多准呢?

$舜宇光学科技(02382)$ $中国中车(01766)$ $IGG(00799)$ 

今天看到大摩对予舜宇(02382)的目标价为85港元 ,评级“与大市同步”并 相信舜宇光学(02382)股价于未来45日内下跌,发生的可能性介于70%至80%,主因近日股价已回升不少,令短期估值吸引力下降。

大摩的这种预测到底有多准呢?我就以大摩曾经3次对中国中车(01766)预测股价在一定的时间内的涨跌,并说明发生的可能性介于70%至80%或更高概率的预测给予观察对比:

1. 第一次预测于2017.4.10 :大摩相信中国中车股价30天内会涨涨的概率70-80%,目标价8.80元。我的观察对比

17.4.10 :中国中车(01766)股价HKD7.72

30天期限:17.04.10 至 17.05.09,

这段时间的实际股价情况:在这段期间,股价基本上一路往下跌至59日的HKD7.34,跌幅-4.9%,与目标价对比,差距-16.60%

我的结论:预测失败!

(17.4.10:M Stanley Believes CRRC's Share Price to Rise in 30 Days ; target price of $8.8 。Morgan Stanley, in its report, said it is 70-80% likely to see the share price of CRRC to rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days。

The broker believed key catalysts in the following months include: management's global road show, which is likely to spread more confidence; a new round of high-speed trains new order tender, which should start in April; and the the Belt and Road summit in mid-May, which should bring significant new overseas rolling stock contracts. The broker rated Overweight on CRRC with target price of $8.8。)

2. 接着第一次不成功的预测,时隔4个月,大摩又来个第二次大胆的预测如下:

第2 次预测于17.09.06 :大摩相信中国中车股价 60 天内跑赢大盘涨的概率70-80%,目标价仍然是8.80 元。我的观察对比:

17.9.6 :中国中车(01766)股价HKD 7.06元

60天期限:17.9.6 至 17. 11.06

这段时间的实际股价情况:在这段期间,股价最高价为HKD7.80,比7.06涨了10%,截止17.11.06 股价为HKD7.48,涨了6%,但距离目标价HKD8.80元还差了-15.0%

我的结论:预测不算成功!

(2017/09/06 14:16 M Stanley Believes CRRC (01766.HK)'s Share Price to Outrun Mkt in Next 60 Days. Morgan Stanley, in its report, believed that it is 70%-80% likely that the share price of CRRC (01766.HK) will outperform the market in 60 days. The broker rated CRRC at Overweight with target price of $8.8.

Morgan Stanley said CRRC has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more attractive. With strong passenger growth and transportation demand, the broker is positive about railway-related stocks. Morgan Stanley expected CRRC to post overseas revenue growth, predicting 21% CAGR for 2017-20 (estimate). CRRC's share in global markets is expected to rise from 7% to 13% in 2020.)

3. 大摩再接再厉,仅过了2个多月,于18.1.31再来个第3次预测 :大摩相信中国中车股价会 60天内会涨涨的概率80%以上!!!,目标价大幅上调至HKD9.50 元。我的观察对比

18.1.31 :中国中车(01766)股价HKD 7.75

60天期限:18.1.31 至 18.04.03

这段时间的实际股价情况:在这段期间,股价基本上一路往下跌至43日的HKD6.60元,跌幅-14.9%,与目标价9.50元对比,相差-30%

我的结论:预测大失败!

(2018/01/31 14:22 M Stanley Believes CRRC (01766.HK) Share Price to Rise in Next 60 Days。Morgan Stanley, in its report, believed that share price of CRRC (01766.HK)will rise in 60 days with a probability of 80% or above, mainly due to possible strong growth in 4Q17 and 1Q18 profit. 

The investment rating was Overweight with a target price of $9.5. )

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全部评论

吹角连营-auia2019-03-08 08:21

外资大行确实无节操,搞笑的是被骗了那么多年,他们的报告仍对股价有巨大影响。

大隐无言2019-03-08 05:23

就着@albert_tey  兄的话题说两句,如果长期跟踪港股和外资大行报告的话,会发现这是常态和普遍现象,背后的原因和商业模式有关。外资大行对客户都是收年费的,研究报告主要给内部客户看。对外公开的个股分析报告都是配合客户出货和吸货用的。所以在个股上,不但不能相信外资大行的的报告,而且要反着看,反着做。当然,对于外资大行的宏观研究报告还是要重视,一是这是揽客和宣传公司品牌的报告,代表了外资的真实看法。二、外资大行会配合宏观报告进行操作,影响市场。$IGG(00799)$  $招商银行(SH600036)$

欲飞时空2018-12-12 08:43

发个预测很容易,关键是人家想制造波动,无论做空做多都赚钱

嘉琳廖2018-12-11 11:34

当天(18.12.05)大摩相信舜宇光学(02382)股价于未来45日内下跌,发生的可能性介于70%至80%。当天股价收盘价74.00元,后在3天内,股价被吓到跌至66.85元,跌幅高达-9.60%。这两天股价又回来了,您的筹码被吓走了吗?$02382$