$创新ETF-ARK(ARKK)$ $基因进化ETF-ARK(ARKG)$ $Berkeley Lights(BLI)$ 

I noticed Berkeley Lights (BLI)  because of the face-off between Ark and Scorpion. One is a famous investor who focuses on disruptive technologies; the other one is a short institution.


I spent a couple of days researching this company and would be happy to share my opinions.


1, I believe this technology is real and disruptive. It has vast potentials and many applications. It's a game-changer in the cells industry, particularly in "Antibody discovery," "Cell therapy," and "Synthetic Biology." My conclusion is based on the information from the comments of former and current employees, an expert in the same field, and Ark. I believe this is why Ark has invested a lot in this company. It is the No.1 allocation in the Ark funds if you take ownership into account.


2, Scorpion pointed out that the TAM is "negligible," It may be true if you only look at the current market. For example, how many customers can afford to buy a $2m machine? And, the downstream markets are still at their early stage. But I believe the TAM will enlarge over time as the end markets evolve though I am unsure what the number is.


3, As Scorpion reported, the product (Beacon) is imperfect. Too expensive; difficult to manipulate (so the user would rather stick to the legacy platform instead of shifting to the cutting edge machine.); wrong export (unreliable); hardware malfunctions and software bugs (lower efficiency). Probably, these statements are factual (or used to be factual).


4, The company recently launched the "TechAccess" subscription and "Service" business models. I would say this is a leap for the company. It seems to prove that the company has solved the problems Scorpion's report mentioned above; otherwise, the customers can quickly end their subscriptions. At meanwhile, it becomes more accessible to middle/small size customers. Will the business model be successful? I am not sure. They got three subscriptions in the first quarter when it was released. It's not a stunning result.


5, Ark has a compelling track record, but Scorpion's performance is so so.


Like many start-ups, BLI has impressive technology and defective product; the market is still developing. Its future may be rugged, but it does have the probability to be a ten-bagger.


Disclosure: I have a small long position on this stock. Based on either condition, I will add my long position: the fundamental is more visible, or the price is low enough. 

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梧桐山上2021-09-30 21:44

They launched TechAccess subscription on June 1st and took three orders in the month instead of in the quarter. That's pretty good!