SVB Financial Group下一步会发生什么?

Seekingalpha上有篇文章分析SIVB的状况以及推测下一步会发生什么。这个文章写得不错推荐一下,但由于原文需要付费才能看,我这里提供作者预测会发生的情况的一个摘要:

1.One possibility is that the government steps in to remove uncertainty around uninsured deposits by making everyone whole and then liquidating the remaining asset portfolio to recoup the funds. This could be seen as a popular move and may be favored by the Biden administration.

2. Another scenario is a potential "white knight" situation, where a company such as Berkshire Hathaway or J.P. Morgan steps in and bids on SVB's assets at a deep discount (potentially with the government's guarantee), but enough to cover depositors, effectively wiping out everyone else.

3. The worst-case scenario would be a contagion effect, but given the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain a stable financial system, it is likely they will take action at the earliest sign of market stress. The 2008 financial crisis showed that it was more costly to rescue the entire banking system than to save a single bank. I'm sure FDIC is already asking Wall Street firms to submit bids for parts of SVB's asset book, but if there isn't strong demand, I'd expect the Fed to fire up the printing press again.

原文在这里:seekingalpha.com/article/4586729-svb-financial-group-what-happens-next


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QLiukt006-02 10:16

没有呢。我觉得那些长期的收益并不行。

SukerZ06-01 21:57

兄弟有关注宏观对冲基金吗?

相伴前行04-12 19:01

咱俩玩法不一样

QLiukt004-11 01:03

在股市里赚钱不是要选大家都知道的强者,而是要选真实水平比大家期望的要强的公司。当大家不看好欧洲的时候,去欧洲找好的公司就是机会。

相伴前行04-11 00:05

金融看国家,区域,正是美国的国家实力成就华尔街的辉煌,而不是相反。虽然花街屡屡出事,但不妨碍它依旧拥有全球最好的金融人才,跟随北美公司的全球拓展,黑石,博枫,KKR这些才能做的风生水起。中国金融业在海外不行,我个人一个观点就是中国实业走不出去,中国金融业孤掌难鸣。过去英国还行的时候,巴克莱,汇丰都不错,现在再看看,直接下坡路。瑞士原来的保密优势被美国打破了,再加上欧洲不行(找好项目,找资金都难),从源头上,瑞士(包括整个欧洲)的金融业就不可能和美国巨头相提并论(除了保险还行,因为航运在欧洲手上)。
选金融业的强者,还是在花街找胜算大的多。