（首发于公众号：价值投机圈）
大家好，小陶的公众号改名了“价值投机圈”。这么长时间的投资实践，我发现让自己做一个完全的价值投资，我是做不到的，价值投资易学难精，对公司的运营模式、对行业的深度洞察力、对自我的约束与自制力以及各类财务知识等等能力都是我望尘莫及的；对于题材概念的炒作，人又笨，反应还慢又没时间盯盘，今年我试过操作几次都是去接盘的，彻底放弃了；我目前对于中线操作的个股，以趋势为主，价值为辅进行股票买卖，从学习理解上以及自我时间安排上，我认为都是比较符合我现在的状态的。
冯柳有一段虚实论，大意是这样的：要尽量寻找虚实结合的标的，实是落脚点和确定性，绝不能错；虚是展望、是臆想，也是大利润的来源。跌令实的更实，因为价钱便宜了；涨令虚处显得确定，因为得到市场的确认和佐证。如果涨几十个点就有想卖的冲动，可能是虚处不足，就不太可能是好的标的，最后可可能连那几十个点都赚不到；反过来也一样，跌了不敢重仓加就说明实处不够，要多检讨一下自己对确定性的把握。
对于目前的我来说，这段话我只能理解到虚的层次，也就是一支有价值的股它被市场确认和佐证了，在趋势确认的逻辑下去寻找实处，以结果为导向。我这里的趋势有两种：一种是上升的趋势，就是我们一直玩的强势股套路；另一种是单边下降趋势，这种趋势下能不能找到一个实处去结束这段趋势？我认为我的这种投资模式带有很强的投机性质，以价值之名的投机，以后慢慢实践吧，或许还会改变，但是基本的投资哲学就是这样了。
分 割 线
指数中期信号我以前也研究过，但是没继续研究下去，原因就一点吧--懒！！中期信号想必大家也很清楚了，有很多辅助规则，但是主要规则生效才会加入辅助规则判断。目前公布的主要规则：周收盘价创最近四周新高考虑信号开启，周收盘价创最近四周新低，信号结束。点阵图的想法来自博士转载的一篇文章，由于测试原因，我将四周信号写成了参数，也就是你可以随意调节几周新高新低。我看了下那个小伙子的代码，跟我的不一样，我没有把每个指数名写在最后，因为我觉得那样太丑了，哈哈哈。不啰嗦，上干货！
新建公式
公式代码
{上证指数}
IF("999999$C">=HHV("999999$C",M),25,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("999999$C"<=LLV("999999$C",N),25,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("999999$C">LLV("999999$C",N) AND "999999$C"<HHV("999999$C",M),25,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{深圳综指}
IF("399106$C">=HHV("399106$C",M),24,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399106$C"<=LLV("399106$C",N),24,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399106$C">LLV("399106$C",N) AND "399106$C"<HHV("399106$C",M),24,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{上证50}
IF("000016$C">=HHV("000016$C",M),23,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000016$C"<=LLV("000016$C",N),23,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000016$C">LLV("000016$C",N) AND "000016$C"<HHV("000016$C",M),23,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{沪深300}
IF("000300$C">=HHV("000300$C",M),22,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000300$C"<=LLV("000300$C",N),22,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000300$C">LLV("000300$C",N) AND "000300$C"<HHV("000300$C",M),22,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{中小板指}
IF("399005$C">=HHV("399005$C",M),21,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399005$C"<=LLV("399005$C",N),21,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399005$C">LLV("399005$C",N) AND "399005$C"<HHV("399005$C",M),21,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{创业板指}
IF("399006$C">=HHV("399006$C",M),20,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399006$C"<=LLV("399006$C",N),20,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399006$C">LLV("399006$C",N) AND "399006$C"<HHV("399006$C",M),20,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{深圳成指}
IF("399001$C">=HHV("399001$C",M),19,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399001$C"<=LLV("399001$C",N),19,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399001$C">LLV("399001$C",N) AND "399001$C"<HHV("399001$C",M),19,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{创业板综}
IF("399102$C">=HHV("399102$C",M),18,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399102$C"<=LLV("399102$C",N),18,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399102$C">LLV("399102$C",N) AND "399102$C"<HHV("399102$C",M),18,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{中小板综}
IF("399101$C">=HHV("399101$C",M),17,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399101$C"<=LLV("399101$C",N),17,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399101$C">LLV("399101$C",N) AND "399101$C"<HHV("399101$C",M),17,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{保险}
IF("880473$C">=HHV("880473$C",M),16,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("880473$C"<=LLV("880473$C",N),16,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("880473$C">LLV("880473$C",N) AND "880473$C"<HHV("880473$C",M),16,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{深次新股}
IF("399678$C">=HHV("399678$C",M),15,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399678$C"<=LLV("399678$C",N),15,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399678$C">LLV("399678$C",N) AND "399678$C"<HHV("399678$C",M),15,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{次新股}
IF("880529$C">=HHV("880529$C",M),14,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("880529$C"<=LLV("880529$C",N),14,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("880529$C">LLV("880529$C",N) AND "880529$C"<HHV("880529$C",M),14,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{两年新股}
IF("880870$C">=HHV("880870$C",M),13,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("880870$C"<=LLV("880870$C",N),13,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("880870$C">LLV("880870$C",N) AND "880870$C"<HHV("880870$C",M),13,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{银华锐进}
IF("150019$C">=HHV("150019$C",M),12,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("150019$C"<=LLV("150019$C",N),12,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("150019$C">LLV("150019$C",N) AND "150019$C"<HHV("150019$C",M),12,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{深100R}
IF("399004$C">=HHV("399004$C",M),11,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399004$C"<=LLV("399004$C",N),11,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399004$C">LLV("399004$C",N) AND "399004$C"<HHV("399004$C",M),11,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{基金指数}
IF("000010$C">=HHV("000010$C",M),10,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000010$C"<=LLV("000010$C",N),10,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000010$C">LLV("000010$C",N) AND "000010$C"<HHV("000010$C",M),10,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{中证500}
IF("399005$C">=HHV("399005$C",M),9,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399005$C"<=LLV("399005$C",N),9,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399005$C">LLV("399005$C",N) AND "399005$C"<HHV("399005$C",M),9,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{深圳B指}
IF("399108$C">=HHV("399108$C",M),8,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399108$C"<=LLV("399108$C",N),8,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399108$C">LLV("399108$C",N) AND "399108$C"<HHV("399108$C",M),8,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{成份B指}
IF("399003$C">=HHV("399003$C",M),7,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399003$C"<=LLV("399003$C",N),7,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399003$C">LLV("399003$C",N) AND "399003$C"<HHV("399003$C",M),7,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{B股指数}
IF("000003$C">=HHV("000003$C",M),6,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000003$C"<=LLV("000003$C",N),6,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000003$C">LLV("000003$C",N) AND "000003$C"<HHV("000003$C",M),6,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{创业板B}
IF("150153$C">HHV("150153$C",M),5,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("150153$C"<LLV("150153$C",N),5,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("150153$C">=LLV("150153$C",N) AND "150153$C"<=HHV("150153$C",M),5,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{国证B指}
IF("399318$C">HHV("399318$C",M),3,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399318$C"<LLV("399318$C",N),3,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399318$C">=LLV("399318$C",N) AND "399318$C"<=HHV("399318$C",M),3,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{国证1000}
IF("399311$C">HHV("399311$C",M),4,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399311$C"<LLV("399311$C",N),4,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("399311$C">=LLV("399311$C",N) AND "399311$C"<=HHV("399311$C",M),4,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{医药等权}
IF("000075$C">HHV("000075$C",M),2,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000075$C"<LLV("000075$C",N),2,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000075$C">=LLV("000075$C",N) AND "000075$C"<=HHV("000075$C",M),2,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
{全指医药}
IF("000991$C">HHV("000991$C",M),1,DRAWNULL),COLORRED,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000991$C"<LLV("000991$C",N),1,DRAWNULL),COLORGREEN,CIRCLEDOT;
IF("000991$C">=LLV("000991$C",N) AND "000991$C"<=HHV("000991$C",M),1,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,CIRCLEDOT;
效果图
说明：1.各指数大部分处于红色说明市场转暖，可以加大趋势仓位；2.各指数大部分处于绿色说明市场处于冰点，基本上需要空仓；3.从红色转向黄色是可能变盘的节点，市场有转弱预期，由绿色转向黄色则可能是趋势变强的预期；4.最后四列不知为啥，一直显示黄色，公式没问题，我没找到原因；5.大盘的趋势判断方式有很多种，中期信号也只是其中一种，依赖技术但不迷信技术。
今天就先说这些，有不明白的后台留言，有时间就回复。
祝A股长红！祝大家账户长红！