巴菲特致股东的信 2017 - 9 非控股投资3

Berkshire, itself, provides some vivid examples of how price randomness in the short term can obscure long-term growth in value. For the last 53 years, the company has built value by reinvesting its earnings and letting compound interest work its magic. Year by year, we have moved forward. Yet Berkshire shares have suffered four truly major dips. Here are the gory details:

伯克希尔自己就提供了几个关于短期价格随机性如何模糊掉长期价值增长的生动例子。过去53年,公司通过将盈利再投资以及让复利发挥其魔力从而创造价值。年复一年,我们勇往向前。但是伯克希尔股票还是遭受了四次严重下跌。下面是血淋淋的详情:

Period High Low Percentage Decrease

期间 高点 低点 下降率

March 1973-January 1975 93 38 (59.1%)

10/2/87-10/27/87 4,250 2,675 (37.1%)

6/19/98-3/10/2000 80,900 41,300 (48.9%)

9/19/08-3/5/09 147,000 72,400 (50.7%)

This table offers the strongest argument I can muster against ever using borrowed money to own stocks.

这个表格就我反对用贷款来炒股提供了最强有力的论据。

There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren’t immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions.

这里尚未明确告知短期内股票最多能跌多少。尽管你的借款是小额的且你的状况并未被暴跌的股市所威胁,但你的大脑已经被吓人的标题和令人窒息的评论吓得恐惧万分。不淡定的大脑是无法做出正确决策的。

In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table. No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.

未来53年我们的股票(或者别家的股票)还会经历如上表那样的暴跌。没有人能告诉你什么时候会发生这些。交通灯任何时候都可能从绿转红,而不在黄色停留。

When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped by debt. That’s the time to heed these lines from Kipling’s If:

不过,当暴跌发生的时候,市场给那些尚未被债务致残的人士提供了非凡的机会。这个时候我们需要好好读读吉卜林的诗歌《如果》:

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs . . .

如果在众人六神无主之时, 你镇定自若而不是人云亦云…

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting . . .

如果你愿意等待, 又能不疲于等候…

If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim . . .

如果你有神思,又不至于走火入魔…

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you...

如果众人皆非难于你而你仍能坚信自己…

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

那么,你就已经胸怀天地,拥有了属于自己的世界。

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