Q：Even when you find a stock selling for less than this lower bound of intrinsic value, do you still do the homework on the second part and analyze, will the intrinsic value go down in the future? Thank you.
问：即使你发现一只股票的卖价低于内在价值的下限，你还会做第二部分的功课，分析内在价值在未来会下降吗？谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETT: The second part of your question, relating to intrinsic value going down. Actually, if you compute intrinsic value as reflecting the discounted value of future cash flows, that should have, built into it, a calculation that allows for the fact that certain businesses are going to earn less in the future than now.
It isn’t that their intrinsic value goes down then, because you should build it into your calculation right now.
巴菲特：你问题的第二部分，关于内在价值未来是否会下降。实际上，如果你计算的内在价值反映了未来现金流的折现值，那就应该考虑到这样一个事实，即某些企业未来的盈利会比现在少。
这并不是说它们的内在价值会下降，因为你现在就应该把它纳入你的计算中。
But, you know, as we point out many times in the past, intrinsic value is terribly important and very fuzzy.
And we made that mistake, for example, at Dexter Shoe. I mean we bought a business that was earning $40 million, or so, pretax. And we assumed that the future would be as good as the past, and we couldn’t have been more — I couldn’t have been more wrong.
And I will tell you that, you know, 20 percent of the Fortune 500 — but I don’t know which 20 percent — are going to be earning, you know, significantly less money probably five years from now than they are today.
And that’s what the game is all about. Figuring out what those future cash flows are likely to be. And when you can’t — when you feel you can’t come up with reasonable estimates in that respect, you move onto the next one.
但是，你知道，正如我们过去多次指出的那样，内在价值非常重要，也非常模糊。
我们犯了这个错误，例如，在德克斯特鞋业。我的意思是，我们收购了一家税前盈利4000万美元左右的企业。我们认为未来会和过去一样好，可我们错得不能再错了。
我会告诉你，财富500强中20%的企业——但我不知道是哪20%——五年后赚的钱可能会比现在少很多。
这就是比赛的意义所在。计算出这些未来的现金流可能是什么。当你不能——当你觉得你不能在这方面做出合理的估计，你就会看下一家公司。
。。。。。
价值投资金镝：
（1）提问者很可能混淆了“企业未来的盈利下降”和“企业未来的价值下降”。巴菲特解释道——“如果你计算的内在价值反映了未来现金流的折现值，那就应该考虑到这样一个事实，即某些企业未来的盈利会比现在少。这并不是说它们的内在价值会下降，因为你现在就应该把它纳入你的计算中。”
（2）同时巴菲特也指出，“内在价值非常模糊”，如果你没有把握较为准确地计算出一家公司的未来现金流，最好是放弃——“当你觉得你不能在这方面做出合理的估计，你就会看下一家公司。”
巴菲特举了两个例子来说明没有人能100%的预测出未来：一是他在德克斯特鞋业上犯的错——“我们认为未来会和过去一样好，可我们错得不能再错了”；二是他判断财富500强中的企业有20%在5年后赚的钱可能会比现在少很多，但他“不知道是哪20%”。
所以，投资者应该牢记芒格的名言——“我只想知道自己会死在哪里，那么我永远不会去那里。”