罗仕证券在3月18日发布了对中华地产的维持买入的评级，目标价为$6。主要内容如下：
由于销售量下降，建设进度放缓等原因，中华地产第四季度的财报表现不佳。虽然在2011年上半年公司将受到严厉的房市调控政策的冲击，但长远来看，我们对中华地产的销售潜力和2011年业绩持乐观态度。2012-2013年公司最大的两个项目的销售和建设将达到顶峰，我们认为这两年将是中华地产的黄金时期.公司两年内300万股的回购计划也是我们看好中华地产的原因之一。
公司第第四季度实现营收3610万美元，同比上涨37%，这比我们估计的要少110万美元，同时，22.7%的毛利率也低于31.4%的预期。该季度将一部分持有供出售物产重新归类为固定资产时计入190万美元的总折旧费用，不计这部分费用毛利率为28%。备考净利润为210万美元，每股收益为0.06美元，我们预期的净利润和每股收益分别为560万美元和0.15美元；不计上述的190万美元（纳税后净额），备考净利润和每股收益分别为350万美元和0.10美元。
Junjing 3期的预售推迟到2011年下半年——这一季度GFA的售出面积为30700平方米，少于我们预期的40%，但每平米销售价格6661元超过了我们预期的5750元。但是，将Junjing 3期的预售许可推迟至2011年的第二季度，这部分收入将会计入2011年下半年。
短期内受政策冲击较明显，2011年公司业绩目标与我们的预期一致——公司预计2011年将实现2-2.2亿美元的营收，同我们2.19亿美元的预期相符，短期内中华地产的销售将受两个因素影响，包括：中国房市的调控政策和Junjing3期的预售时间的延迟；长期来看，基于项目地理位置优越和售价合理，我们对公司项目销售持乐观态度。
由于近期政策对销售的影响，我们调低了2011年和2012年的业绩预期；由于平均售价的略降，我们也调低了公司的毛利润预期。
因此，我们维持中华地产的买入评级，目标价6美元。此价格由2011年每股盈余乘以6.7计算得出。
Q4 missed on lower project sales and slower construction schedule. Though 1H11 will likely be impacted by recently-introduced strict housing policies, we remain optimistic on CHLN's long-term sales potential and 2011 guidance. We expect the next two years will be CHLN's prime period given the largest two projects' sales and construction will peak around 2012-13. We are also encouraged by the company's 3mm share buyback authorization over the next two years.
Revenue was $36.1mm, up 37% y/y, $1.1mm short of our estimate. GM was 22.7%, lower than our estimate of 31.4%. Excluding a $1.9m onetime depreciation charge for reclassification of hold-for-sale property to fixed assets, GM would have been 28%. Pro forma NI was $2.1mm or EPS of $0.06, compared with our estimate of $5.6 mm or $0.15 EPS. Excluding the $1.9m depreciation (net of tax), pro forma net income would have been $3.5mm or EPS of $0.10.
Presale of Junjing III switches to 2H11 - GFA sold for the quarter was 30.7K sqms, 40% lower than our estimate. However, ASP of 6,661 RMB/sqm beat our estimate of 5,750/sqm. The approval of presale permits for Junjing III was postponed to 2Q11, shifting total revenue recognition to 2H11.
Stringent policy impacts short term; 2011 guidance in-line with expectation – Management provided 2011 guidance of $200-220mm for revenue, in-line with our previous $219mm estimate. While we believe recent stringent policies across China will impact near term buying sentiment on CHLN's projects, in addition to the delay of Junjing III presale, we are still optimistic on long-term project sales given the projects' prime location and reasonable pricing.
Number revisions – We lowered 2011 and 2012 estimates to be conservative on the sales impact from recent strict policies. We also lowered our GM assumption to reflect a slight ASP decrease.
We maintain our BUY rating and $6.00 PT based on a 6.7x multiple 2011 EPS.