只看报告而不看具体内容并作仔细分析的话，Lightcountingt提到以太网收发器销售的增长率从2022年3月预测的22%下降到现在的9%的观点只会误导不少的人。
1、Lightcounting报告里提到，低于预期的400G DR4销售给亚马逊和2x400G模块销售给谷歌是低增长率的原因。实际上，亚马逊400G DR4在今年二季度采购确实较少，谷歌的2x400G（即800G）在二季度都还没开始下单，但这些因素并没有影响旭创二季度的增长。中际旭创作为数据中心光模块行业龙头，拥有高于同行的竞争力和市场份额，受益于海外数据中心客户对200G和400G的部署，2022年1-6月营收同比增长28.3%，净利润同比增长41.8%，收入和业绩增速均明显高于同行，也明显高于Lightcounting 所预测的9%的增速。
2、根据公司方面发布的互动易回复和投资者会议纪要里对三季度的经营情况的表述，“结合目前行业发展、海内外客户需求及订单情况看，公司预计三季度仍将取得良好的经营成果”，我们有理由相信三、四季度仍能继续保持高于行业的增速。且Lightcounting在报告里也提到了“This is just a fluctuation and both companies plan to ramp purchases of these products in 2023.”和“Fears of a recession continue to fuel speculations, but none of the transceiver suppliers, interviewed by LightCounting, are seeing any signs of weaker demand related to it, at least not yet.，说明2022年下半年和2023年以太网的需求仍将保持较好的需求。
以下是LIghtcounting在2022年9月发布的这份报告的核心观点
Demand for Ethernet optical transceivers remains strong across all market segments. Yet, our latest forecast is a bit lower than the one published in March 2022. The growth rate of Ethernet transceiver sales for this year was reduced from 22% in our March 2022 forecast, to 9% now, as illustrated in the figure below. Lower than expected sales of 400G DR4 to Amazon and 2x400G modules to Google are to blame for the lower growth rate. This is just a fluctuation and both companies plan to ramp purchases of these products in 2023. Delays in deliveries of servers to Amazon are disrupting growth in demand for the optics, but this issue should be sorted out by the end of the year. Google is taking a bit longer to debug all the new equipment requiring 2x400G transceivers and this is not unusual.
所有细分市场对以太网光模块的需求都保持强劲。然而，我们最新的预测略低于2022年3月发布的预测。今年以太网收发器销售的增长率从我们2022年3月预测的22%下降到现在的9%，如下图所示。低于预期的400G DR4销售给亚马逊和2x400G模块销售给谷歌是低增长率的原因。这只是一个波动，两家公司都计划在2023年增加这些产品的购买。向亚马逊(Amazon)交付服务器的延迟扰乱了光学器件需求的增长，但这个问题应该会在今年年底前得到解决。谷歌在调试所有需要2x400G收发器的新设备时花费了一些时间，这是很正常的。
Fears of a recession continue to fuel speculations, but none of the transceiver suppliers, interviewed by LightCounting, are seeing any signs of weaker demand related to it, at least not yet.
LightCounting采访的收发器供应商中，没有一家看到任何与之相关的需求减弱的迹象，至少目前还没有。
Sales to Cloud companies accounted for 68% of the Ethernet transceiver market in 2021 and this is projected to increase to 82% by 2027. If these companies continue to invest in their cloud datacenter infrastructure as planned, regardless of any perceived recession, then the Ethernet transceiver market will not be impacted significantly.
2021年，面向云计算公司的销售额占以太网收发器市场的68%，预计到2027年将增加到82%。如果这些公司继续按计划投资于他们的云数据中心基础设施，而不考虑任何可能的衰退，那么以太网收发器市场将不会受到重大影响。
$中际旭创(SZ300308)$
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