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$露露柠檬(LULU)$ 2022年财年营收62.7亿,增速42%
我预估2023财年净利润为:62.7*125%*15% (预估营收增长放缓至25%,因为有疫情和战争影响,净利润率长期高于15%)=11.75亿
现在市值为 342 亿,因此forward PE = 29 , P/S = 4.3
看财报主要看:营收展望,主要是增速放缓到什么程度;当期净利润率是否偏离15%太多;

操作:已经在270附近买入第一笔建仓,需要财报确认增速和净利润率;

公司是非常好的公司,估值确实比较贵一点,如果财报再来一个业绩杀,就要重新毛估估了,目前买入价格还是有风险投资赌财报的动机,希望财报很烂(受宏观经济影响、疫情、战争等),那么就有“黄金坑”机会,因为这种公司正常情况下是不可能有买入机会的,只有“宏观经济”不行的时候,才有抄底长期持有的意义

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2022-06-03 21:26

$露露柠檬(LULU)$ 财报出来了:营收同比增长28%(有所放缓),营运利润率16.1%,未来展望较为乐观,估值较高,不过业绩确实好,目前股价合理范围内。下面是公司公布的财报要点




the first quarter of 2022, compared to the first quarter of 2021: • Net revenue increased 32% to $1.6 billion.
• Net revenue increased 32% in North America, and increased 29% internationally.
• Total comparable sales increased 28%, or 29% on a constant dollar basis.
• Comparable store sales increased 24%.
• Direct to consumer net revenue increased 32%, or 33% on a constant dollar basis.
• Direct to consumer net revenue represented 45% of total net revenue compared to 44% for the first quarter of 2021.
• Gross profit increased 24% to $870.4 million and gross margin decreased 320 basis points to 53.9%.
• Income from operations increased 34% to $260.3 million. Adjusted income from operations increased 29%.
• Operating margin increased 30 basis points to 16.1%. Adjusted operating margin decreased 30 basis points.
• Income tax expense increased 43% to $70.3 million. The effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2022 was 27.0% compared to 25.3% for the first quarter of 2021. The adjusted effective tax rate was 24.5% for the first quarter of 2021.

• Diluted earnings per share were $1.48 compared to $1.11 in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.16 in the first quarter of 2021.
• The Company repurchased 0.7 million shares of its own common stock at an average price of $328.40 per share for a total cost of $232.6 million.
• The Company opened five net new company-operated stores during the first quarter, ending with 579 stores.
For the first quarter of 2022, compared to the first quarter of 2019:
• Net revenue increased by $831.1 million, or 106%, representing a three-year compound annual growth rate of 27%.
• Gross margin was consistent at 53.9%.
• Operating margin decreased 40 basis points.
• Diluted earnings per share were $1.48 compared to $0.74 in the first quarter of 2019.
Meghan Frank, Chief Financial Officer, stated: "Our teams continue to deliver strong financial performance while navigating the ongoing impacts of COVID-19, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. While we are not immune to these challenges, our omni operating model, balanced growth strategy, and unique approach toward innovation enable the positive results we are reporting today and anticipate for the full year."

2022-05-20 14:45

业绩杀基本已经由于$塔吉特(TGT)$ 业绩爆雷而被price in了,况且LULU的高端服装要比TGT售卖的低端服装受通胀影响小。估计Q1业绩不会差。后续看大盘是不是还有机会在情绪面带低股价。