价值投资与逆向思维

——节选自《安全边际》（主要是几年前译的东西，看起来已经显得很不专业了。）

（传统价投的一个重要特点：买了就亏，再买还亏，越买越亏，越亏越买·······直到有一天，大赚一笔，跑路。不信的请看：网页链接

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价值投资与逆向思维

Value Investing and Contrarian Thinking

价值投资天生就是逆趋势的。不被看好的股票才能被低估，热门股则很难被低估。从定义上看，“羊群们”买入的就是热门的。热门股的股价被乐观预期推高，一般不会成为被忽视的、好的投资标的。

Value investing by its very nature is contrarian. Out-of-favor securities may be undervalued; popular securities almost never are. What the herd is buying is, by definition, in favor. Securities in favor have already been bid up in price on the basis of optimistic expectations and are unlikely to represent good value that has been overlooked.

如果羊群们买入的不会被低估，那么到哪里去寻找低估股票？到他们卖出的、未意识到的，或被他们忽略的地方。当被大众卖出的时候，股票价格就会下跌，无厘头下跌。这就会出现买入机会。

If value is not likely to exist in what the herd is buying, where may it exist? In what they are selling, unaware of, or ignoring. When the herd is selling a security, the market price may fall well beyond reason. Ignored, obscure, or newly created securities may similarly be or become undervalued.

投资者可能发现成为一个“逆行者”非常困难，因为他们无法确定“逆行是否正确”或不知道“什么时候能够证明逆行是正确的”。由于逆“羊群”而为，逆行者往往在初始阶段会被认为是“错误的”，而且可能会发生账面亏损，而此时，“羊群”内的那些人却往往被证明是“正确的”。逆行者不光是暂时被证明是“错误”的，而且在很长一段时期也被证明是“错误”的，因为市场趋势可能会在较长时期内击败基本面。

Investors may find it difficult to act as contrarians for they can never be certain whether or when they will be proven correct. Since they are acting against the crowd, contrarians are almost always initially wrong and likely for a time to suffer paper losses. By contrast, members of the herd are nearly always right for a period. Not only are contrarians initially wrong, they may be wrong more often and for longer periods than others because market trends can continue long past any limits warranted by underlying value.

然而，对于投资者持有相反观点并不一定都有益。当多数人的意见对某些股票的股价并不构成影响时，逆潮流游泳就不一定有收获。大家都同意明天太阳依旧会升起，但这种意见对于这种结果并没有任何影响。同理，只有当大多数人的意见影响结果时，才可以逆势而行了。

Holding a contrary opinion is not always useful to investors, however. When widely held opinions have no influence on the issue at hand, nothing is gained by swimming against the tide. It is always the consensus that the sun will rise tomorrow, but this view does not influence the outcome. By contrast, when majority opinion does affect the outcome or the odds, contrary opinion can be put to use. When the herd rushes into home health-care stocks, bidding up prices and thereby lowering available returns, the majority has altered the risk/ reward ratio, allowing contrarians to bet against the crowd with the odds skewed in their favor. When investors in 1983 either ignored or panned the stock of Nabisco, causing it to trade at a discount to other food companies, the risk/reward ratio became more favorable, creating a buying opportunity for contrarians.

当股票刚热起来的时候，大众的乐观意见不一定马上会改变股市已有趋势。只有当大众意见持续很长时间，并导致股票市场大热的时候，就会出现比较好的获利了结机会。这种情况下，何时和如何选择退出并逆行并非一件易事。但多数情况下，退出时机把握的误差只会影响收益的多少，而不会影响到是否有收益。同理，冷要冷到股票价格承压到一定程度，已经使得股价显著降低，便宜货唾手可得时，方可选择出手。有很多价值投资者认为买入比卖出容易，这是因为折扣往往会有限制，而溢价似乎不太受限制。所以，才有了荷兰的郁金香，超出价值多少倍，天知道。反正，在大众狂热之下，什么价格都可能发生，但最终，狂热会付出代价，这个过程可能会持续几月或几年，甚至10年以上。