投资巨匠的终极洞见:芒格关于比亚迪的最后访谈精选

发布于: 修改于: 雪球转发:0回复:0喜欢:1

查理·芒格生前在2023年10月的一次访谈中,提到了比亚迪,总结而言是继续盛赞,尽管因为某种大家知道的原因做了减持。这应该是芒格此生最后一次谈论比亚迪了。

这里引用原文,并将我的翻译一并分享奉上[玫瑰]#002594比亚迪#

Charlie:查理·芒格

Ben、David:都是采访和提问者

Charlie: How hard would it be to go into the auto business, to have some big killing? Who's going to win? Who knows? The whole thing has been thrown way up in the air by all these electric cars, all these big, new capital requirements, different ways of selling cars. Plus they got these tough unions. See I just don’t even look at the auto industry!

查理:进入汽车行业,想要大获成功有多难?谁会赢?谁知道呢?所有这些电动汽车、所有这些巨额的新资本需求、销售汽车的不同方式,都让整个行业变得扑朔迷离。再加上他们还得应对这些强硬的工会。看吧,我甚至都不关注汽车行业!

Ben: Do you think it's more investible today than it was 50 years ago because of the disruptive innovation of electric?

本:你认为由于电动汽车的颠覆性创新,现在的汽车行业比50年前更值得投资吗?

Charlie: Well maybe for one or two electric cars that are really good, maybe, but certainly nobody else. It's too tough. BYD was a miracle.

That guy worked 70 hours a week and has a very high IQ. He can do the things you can't do. You can look at somebody else's auto part and you can gure out how to make the goddamned thing. You can't do that, you see.

查理:也许对于一两款真正优秀的电动汽车来说,也许可以考虑,但绝对不是其他人。太难了。比亚迪是个奇迹。那家伙每周工作70小时,拥有非常高的智商。他能做你做不到的事情。他可以看别人的汽车零部件,然后弄清楚如何制造该死的东西。但你做不到,你懂吗。

……

Ben: A thing that I've never fully understood: I know you're a big fan of the company, BYD, the Chinese company that makes batteries and electric vehicles.

本: 一件我从未完全理解的事情是:我知道你是比亚迪这家中国公司的忠实粉丝,他们专门生产电池和电动汽车。

Charlie: I may be a big fan, but I'm hanging out my hat while I lurch around the track. They make me nervous. Just so aggressive.
查理:我可能是个大粉丝,但我会在绕赛道时挂起我的帽子。他们让我感到紧张。太过激进了。

Ben: Is that dangerous in a company?

本: 在公司里这样做会不会有危险?”

Charlie: That's what makes me nervous. Of course it's dangerous.

查理:这就是让我紧张的原因。当然是危险的。

Ben: It seems like there's a spectrum where on the one side there's Costco that is just not a fast-growing company, because it's very difficult to. On BYD, like you're saying, they grew like crazy! I mean, you turned--

本:这似乎就像一个光谱,在一边有像Costco这样的公司,因为它非常难以成长,所以它并不是一个快速增长的公司。而在BYD这边,就像你说的,他们增长得飞快!我的意思是,轮到你了--

Charlie: Well BYD, this year will sell at least two and a half million cars.

查理:嗯,比亚迪,今年至少会卖出250万辆汽车。

Most of them are electric, that's unheard of. That's way more than Mercedes, for instance.

大部分都是电动的,这是闻所未闻的。这远远超过了梅赛德斯,比如说。

David: More than Tesla, right?

大卫:超过特斯拉,对吗?

Charlie: Yeah, more than anybody. Lots of troubles and losses. They ran into terrible trouble. They created the wrong kind… they made lots of mistakes. They were lucky to be on the cutting edge of this electric car business. It's way more acceleration than most people.

查理:是的,比任何人都多。有很多麻烦和损失。他们遇到了可怕的麻烦。他们创造了错误的种类……他们犯了很多错误。他们很幸运能够处在电动汽车业务的前沿。这比大多数人都有更强的加速度。

So you have a car with more oomf than most people need. So the young macho male has a real lively car. There are a lot of things, where electric cars really work in some ways that are better! At making a 90-degree turn. You can go right opposite a parallel parking space, you just move the wheels, it turns the wheels 90 degrees and goes in.所以你有一辆比大多数人所需要的更有劲的车。所以年轻的阳刚男子拥有一辆真正活泼的车。电动车在很多方面确实更好!比如在做90度转弯时。你可以直接对着一个平行停车位,只需移动方向盘,它就会将车轮转动90度并驶入。

Nobody's ever done that. If your car goes at, you could run a hundred miles on three other wheels or something.

没人做过这样的事。如果你的车速足够快,你甚至可以用其他三个轮子跑上一百英里左右。

Andrew: Do they have better economics, because they don't have nearly as many parts? 安德鲁:他们的经济状况是否更好,因为他们没有那么多部件?

Charlie: It's simpler.

查理:简化一些。

Ben: Have you ever had an investment like that before? I think you've invested something like $270 million that's now worth something like $8 billion in BYD.

本:你以前有过这样的投资吗?我记得你在比亚迪投资了大约2.7亿美元,现在价值约80亿美元。

Charlie: Well, very few people have an investment […]. That's a venture capital–type investment. It happened to be a thinly-traded public company, and we bought it as a venture capital–type company. But it was a venture capital–type play, and they just put the foot right in the floorboard and played it hard.

查理:嗯,很少有人有这样的投资[...]. 那是一种风险投资的投资。碰巧它是一家流通股较少的上市公司,我们将其视为一家风险投资类型的公司购买。但它是一种风险投资,他们只是毫不犹豫地大力投入并全力以赴。

By the way, both BYD and we tried to talk them out of going into the car business. They were gonna buy a bankrupt car business, and go into the car business. I said that's a graveyard for you, so why would you want to do that? And he paid no attention to us and went right ahead.

顺便说一句,比亚迪和我们都试图劝他们不要进入汽车行业。他们打算购买一个破产的汽车企业,并进入汽车行业。我说这对你来说是个陷阱,你为什么要那么做呢?他没有理会我们的话,继续前进了。

Ben: Had you invested already when he told you this plan?

本:当他告诉你这个计划时,你已经投资了吗?

Charlie: Yes, yes. And it worked fabulously well. After huge mistakes!

查理: 是的,是的。而且效果非常好。经历了很多错误之后!

They almost went broke with their early dealership building system, almost went broke.

他们的早期经销商建设系统几乎使他们破产,几乎破产了。

David: What captivated you about it though?

大卫:你对它有什么吸引之处?”

Charlie: The guy was a genius. He had a PhD in engineering, and he look at some great part… [he could make that park look at the morning and look at it. I didn't know he could make it.] I've never seen anybody like that. He could do anything.

查理:那个人真是个天才。他拥有工程博士学位,对某些伟大的部分有独特的看法……(他甚至可以让公园在早晨时看起来与平时完全不同。我真不知道他能够做到这点。)我从未见过像他这样的人。他什么都能做到。

He is a natural engineer and a get-it-done type production executive, and that's a big thing. It's a big lot of talent to happen in one place. It's very useful. He solved all his problems on these electric cars, the motors, the acceleration, the braking, and so on.

他是一个天生的工程师和实干型的生产主管,这是一件大事。集中这么多才华于一个人身上非常有用。他解决了所有与这些电动汽车有关的的问题,包括电动机、加速、刹车等等。

David: How would you compare him and BYD to Elon and Tesla?

大卫:你觉得他和比亚迪相比,与埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉有什么区别?

Charlie: He's a fanatic that knows how to actually make things with his hands if he has to. He's closer to ground zero, in other words. The guy at BYD is better at actually making things than Elon is.

查理: 他是一个狂热者,如果必要的话,他知道如何亲手制造东西。换句话说,他更接近震中。比起埃隆,BYD的这个人更擅长实际制造东西。