看中长期吧,这部分最终还是传导出去给下游。
电力行业本身并不是一个特别好的行业,至少在自由现金流(FCF)方面是这样的,很多股息依赖低廉的融资成本。在美国,电力公司都是综合电力公司负责发电、传输和配电和终端一条龙服务,和纯发电不一样,这个生意模式维护成本非常高。虽然很多人谈论新能源,但从美国的情况来看,最主要的变化是由于页岩气的开发,实际上是从煤炭到天然气的转变。
美国的铁路系统有着几百年的历史。巴菲特年报:“Rail is essential to America’s economic future. It is clearly the most efficientway – measured by cost, fuel usage and carbon intensity – of moving heavy materials to distantdestinations.。”以联合太平洋铁路为例,其人工成本占20%,燃料成本占13%。我一直在思考的问题是,如果未来技术进步,新能源(例如氢能)能够替代现有的燃料结构,或者自动驾驶系统的应用,能否进一步减少对人工和燃料的需求?
实际上,巴菲特非常清楚像微软、谷歌、Meta这类企业的优势。他也承认,与伯克希尔相比,这些都是更优秀的生意。他曾说:“Well, we’ve always known that the green business is the one that takes very little capital and grows a lot, and Apple and Google and Microsoft and Facebook are terrific examples of that. I mean, Apple has $ 37 billion in property, plant, equipment. Berkshire has 170 billion or something like that, and they’re going to make a lot more money than we do. They’re in better business. It’s a much better business than we have, and Microsoft’s business is a way better business than we have. Google’s business is a way better business. We’ve known that a long time. We found that out with See’s candy in 1972. I mean, See’s candy just doesn’t require that much capital. It has, obviously, a couple of manufacturing plants. They call them kitchens, but it doesn’t have big inventories, except seasonally for a short period. It doesn’t have a lot of receivables. Those are the kinds of businesses, they’re the best businesses, but they command the best prices, too. There aren’t that many of them, and they don’t always stay that way.” 但不知为何,他始终没有大量投资这类无形资产的的企业。因为这类好生意真的历史上从未有过,可以用很小的固定资产,占领全球的市场。在晚年表现出更多关注于传承和企业的长期稳定性,打好基本盘,而不是追求高速成长。李嘉诚异曲同工,不过,伯克希尔的的投资策略也在逐渐演变,相信未来的接班人会转型的。$威瑞信(VRSN)$ ,Teva这样的仿制药企业的投资,以及他对苹果都是在转型。
最后,令人惊讶的是,包含股息的标准普尔500指数(S&P 500 with Dividends Included)也上涨了312倍。
你这是个啥东西?