自08年雷曼破产2天后，投资大师霍华德马克思发出投资备忘录-Nobody Knows（没人能预知），时隔12年，于3月3日再次发文-Nobody Knows II（没人能预知-二），再次引人深思：
1、美股较2月19日的高点已经下跌了13%，
2、美联储降息50个基点也未能调整市场的情绪，
3、10年期国债收益率已跌破1%
马克思提到，疫情可能是主要影响此次市场大跌的主要因素，因为面对这些问题，没人能准确回答：
1、How does the virus travel from person to person and community to community?
往往发现确诊患者无接触史的染病，所以他怎么染病的？
2、How many people will contract it?
有多少美国人会受影响? Lipstich博士说，至少40%~70%么美国人会受影响。
3、Will it recede?
疫情会减缓吗？中国确诊人数逐步降低，谁能确定世界其他区域的患病人数会降低-前提是“自有出入”没有被限制。
4、What will its effect be?
致死率目前是2~3%，美国会保持这样的数据？
5、What countermeasures will be taken? – Will schools and offices be closed? Will people be told to stay in their homes? Will food be delivered to homes as in China? Will large public events be canceled? Will a vaccine be invented, and when?
目前为止，美国有何应对措施？学校、办公室关闭？美国会像中国一样派送食物给隔离在家的居民(大大的问号)？疫苗会有吗，什么时候会有？
6、What will be the effect on the economy?
人们在家，GDP相应地会降低多少？还会有增长吗？
7、How will the markets react? – Since the markets’ reaction ultimately will be a function of both economics and emotion, it seems impossible to quantify how far it’ll go.
没人能最终量化且判定市场最终会怎么走以及走多远。
马克思说到，那我们该做什么？从这位“价值”投资大师的只言片语中，我们如何拾得牙慧？
These days, people have been asking me whether this is the time to buy. My answer is more nuanced: it’s probably a time to buy.
他提到，大家在问，7个交易日内，市场跌了13%，那这时候是否买入的时刻吗？我的回答有些细微不同：它可能是个买入的时间点。
There can be no unique time to buy that we can identify. The only thing we can be sure of today is that stock prices, for example, are a lot lower in the absolute than they were two weeks ago.
没有可以确定的确定而唯一的买入时间，但今天我们唯一可以确定的是，市场目前的绝对价格比两周前要低得多。
Will stocks decline in the coming days, weeks and months? This is the wrong question to ask . . . primarily because it is entirely unanswerable. Instead, intelligent investing has to be based – as always – on the relationship between price and value. In other words, not “will the collapse go further?” But rather “has the collapse to date caused securities to be priced right; or are they overpriced given the fundamentals; or have they become cheap?”
未来几天，几周和几个月，股市会继续下调吗？
这是个错误的问题， 主要是因为它完全无法回答。
相反，明智的投资必须像往常一样基于价格和价值之间的关系。换句话说，不是“市场会进一步崩溃吗？” 而是“迄今为止的市场崩溃导致证券被正确定价；还是考虑到基本面，它们被高估了？还是变得便宜了？”——大师让我们在正确的思考和对市场进行清晰的判定。
So, especially after we’ve learned more about the coronavirus and developed a vaccine, it seems to me that it is unlikely to fundamentally and permanently change life as we know it, make the world of the future unrecognizable, and decimate business or make valuing it impossible. (Yes, this is a guess: we have to make some of them.)
因此，尤其是在我们对冠状病毒有了更多了解并开发了疫苗之后，在我看来，不太可能从根本上永久地改变我们所认知的生活，使未来的世界变得不可识别，并削弱企业发展或使得不再能对企业进行价值评估。
所以，外国人的思维有个很大的特性，病毒会有，但它不会永远使得正常生活停滞，生活会继续，工作会继续，那么正确的选择“时间节点“聪明的“买入”，便是大师对我们更多的启示！
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