Assuming Beijing’s new semiconductor industry policy produces significant gains for technologies like DUV to keep China’s design and manufacturing industry afloat, the period from 2027–30 will likely see some significant success in moving to commercial production—meaning high-volume manufacturing (HVM)—using more advanced systems with some type of EUV technology ecosystem. In addition, Chinese packaging firms and foundries such as SMIC and Hua Hong will also have moved up the value chain and mastered a number of advanced packaging techniques, including mostly proprietary approaches.
$中芯国际(00981)$ 长远看做先进封装是必然的，这不仅是因为晶圆厂有这个主动权，更是因为晶圆厂的现金流规模远强于封测厂，也是目前国外所有晶圆厂都已经迅猛发力的方向。$华虹半导体(01347)$ $长电科技(SH600584)$