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总想去分散投资,是人性里的一种冲动,就像买彩票时想着多买几个号。但是商业上的规律往往却是强者恒强、一家独大,过去业绩好的公司未来保持好业绩的概率,远高于挑中一支过去业绩不好未来业绩逆袭的公司的概率。在已经持有品牌最强的、成本最低的公司的基础上,一定要克制住自己分散投资的冲动,分散相当于是寄希望于奇迹的发生,往往反而加增加了风险。

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In 58 years of Berkshire management,most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire.
所以,不要想着靠分散多买发财,要想尽办法把握少数真正的好公司的买入机会。当然在A股这有点难,过去白酒低估时我还不懂炒股,近几年自己真正可能经历的就是2023年初因为来水不好、增发收购资产的不确定而跌到20左右的$长江电力(SH600900)$