发布于: 雪球转发:0回复:11喜欢:0

$Lumentum控股(LITE)$ 一点笔记:

(1)关于通信市场:

“Pump laser sales are robust and grew more than 50% from the same quarter last year. As we have mentioned previously, elevated pump shipments frequently have been a leading indicator of future telecom demand.

In addition, submarine cable suppliers are deploying subsea cables at record levels, driven by the robust demand from hyperscale data center operators. This is another leading indicator of future telecom demand. We expect these infrastructure investments will help propel momentum into double-digit growth starting in fiscal 2023 for multiple years.

EMLs serving high speed cloud data center applications reached a new record in revenue. New EML manufacturing capacity will allow us to ramp our datacom shipments even more to help us better fulfill strong customer demand for our differentiated products. Accordingly, we expect fourth quarter EML revenue to increase significantly from the third quarter.”

(2)关于深圳工厂:

“As for your China sourcing impact on our business, we do have a factory in China still and it was shut down during the lockdowns in the end of March for 13 days. So, that did impact slightly our Q3 revenue, and more importantly, it impacted our ability to supply into our other factories for Q4 and that's factored into our guidance in Q4.

So, China, Shenzhen is back running full force. And it's hard to say how much revenue it generates because it makes components that go into other factories. And it primarily produces sub-assemblies and components for our telecom transmission business. So, a large percentage of our telecom transmission business goes through that factory. And as I said earlier, we were shut down for 13 days in March. That impacted our revenue in the in the Q3 numbers, as well as the components that flowed into other factories in Q4. And that's factored into our guidance.”

(3) 关于ROADM

"We're not forgetting ROADMs. ROADMs are critically important to us and to our customers and to their customers. I'd say that ROADMs and ROADMs line cards have been impacted significantly by the IC shortages where we've seen extremely strong demand. So, if you go back and look at our pump shipments, year-on-year up 50-some-percent. ROADMs are the other direction and that's really because of constraints, not because of demand. So, demand is extremely strong. And as the IC shortages improve and we're seeing it in Q4, ROADMs will increase as a result of that. So, a lot of pent up demand for ROADMs. That's why in Wajid's prepared remarks, we think it's durable because, in a lot of cases, we're sole sourced in these advanced ROADMs. And customers critically rely on our technology and products for these next generation of networks. So ROADMs are very, very strong. I wish I had more ICs because I'd be able to ship a whole lot more in Q4 and beyond."

分析师只需要听Alex Henderson 和 Dave Kang

全部讨论

2022-05-05 21:52

是的这次的封锁会让生产型企业考虑备份的问题。疫情对中国真是双刃剑

2022-05-05 14:53

深圳这13天的封城对LITE的打击印象深刻,好糟糕啊。接下来就是上海2个月,对IIVI的影响。。

这段感觉是要从国内撤退,哎。
On a component standpoint, we have been working diligently over the last couple of years to eliminate sole sourcing and get the ability to have dual sources and assurance of supply in situations like we're having today. So as we look forward, minimal impact from the lockdowns on suppliers impacted by shutdowns....NeoPhotonics is that closes in the second half of our calendar year.

And as that comes on board, we're going to have a lot of work to do from some of the synergies commitments that we've made to all of you. And that's going to have some transitional impact on our overall gross margin model as well.

2022-05-05 14:45

谢谢分享。深圳一般的工厂是5天关闭,只有LITE所在的保税区几平方公里的小区域是13天,而且正逢季度尾。