26. 拼多多
26. Pinduoduo
01. 引用：“初生儿”拼多多是IPO的意义
01. Quote: "Newborn" Pinduoduo is the significance of IPO
拼多多要上市了。很多人都觉得震惊：一个成立不足3年的“初生儿”；平台治理上还有这么多问题；公司也不盈利……居然就要上市了？而且是以高达300亿美元的估值上市？这是一个值得……
Pinduoduo is going public. Many people are shocked: a "newborn" that has been established for less than 3 years; there are still many problems in platform governance; the company is not profitable... it is going public? And it is going public with a valuation as high as $30 billion? This is worth...
段永平：我计划再一次买点PreIPO。也许10年后人们就会发现拿着望远镜也找不到对手的年代已经过去了。（2018－07－10）
Duan Yongping: I plan to buy some PreIPO again. Maybe in 10 years, people will find that the era when they couldn't find opponents even with a telescope is over. (2018-07-10)
02. 网友：请问一个问题。请问您怎么看拼多多的商业模式？我看现在拼多多才推出了c2m的模式，那他现在做这么大是考的什么？
02. Netizen: May I ask a question? How do you see Pinduoduo's business model? I see that Pinduoduo has just launched the c2m model. What is he considering now?
段永平：我还没认真看过拼多多，但过年回国时体验了一下，感觉蛮好的。这么多人用可能是有道理的。（2019－03－15）
Duan Yongping: I haven't seriously looked at Pinduoduo yet, but I experienced it when I returned home during the Chinese New Year and felt quite good. So many people use it, there must be a reason. (2019-03-15)
03. 网友J：我不知道拼多多的优势在哪里？打开app，噱头大过实际，为了便宜，好多东西都是貌似品牌，这点让人非常不爽。感觉app呈现的和黄峥说的不一样，让我很迷茫。
03. Netizen J: I don't know where Pinduoduo's advantage lies. When I opened the app, the gimmick was greater than the actual product. In order to save money, many things are seemlingly brand names, which is very annoying. The presentation of the app seems different from what Huang Zheng said, which makes me confused.
段永平：如果你真的认真看的话，总有一天你会看明白的。（2018－07－24）
Duan Yongping: If you really look carefully, someday you will understand. (2018-07-24)
网友J：我以前也是五环内住户，也是最近几周才注册的拼多多，而且在拼多多上连续下了几单，也初步看了一点资料，感觉拼多多虽然也有缺点，但是掩盖不了它的飞速发展、模式上的创新和机器算法的厉害、购物时还有一点玩的乐趣等等。拼多多每单金额、用户时长、月活等都是持续增长的。想想拼多多现在0.2万员工，京东15.7万员工，记得段总说过，需要员工相对多的生意模式不是好的生意模式。个人一点浅见。
Netizen J: I used to live within the Fifth Ring Road and registered to use Pinduoduo only in recent weeks. I have placed several orders on Pinduoduo and have initially looked at some information. I feel that although Pinduoduo also has shortcomings, it cannot conceal its rapid development, innovative model, powerful machine algorithm, and a bit of fun when shopping, etc. The amount per order, user duration, monthly activity, etc. of Pinduoduo are all continuously increasing. Think about it, Pinduoduo has only 2,000 employees now, while JD.com has 157,000 employees. I remember Mr. Duan said that a business model that requires a relatively large number of employees is not a good business model. These are just my personal thoughts.
网友K：近段时间，我一直在看拼多多资料和APP，在上面购了几次物，也在思考拼多多，说一点个人看法，不一定对。1、黄峥在段总的影响下，逐渐建立的本分文化，消费者导向，差异化竞争。2、持续增长的大行业（社会消费品零售业），持续增长的子行业（网络零售业）。网络购物人数也在持续增长。3、目前的核心用户是以前很少被接触到的下沉互联网消费者（他们不认识多少品牌，也没有到靠品牌来辩识产品的时候），未曾深耕的差异化行业。4、去搜索化购物APP，机器算法推送、游戏化、乐趣化。将来对供应链的赋能。5、没有购物车、免密支付等细节做的很好，转化率很高。6、拼多多团队牛，在发展中解决问题，包括假货和次品问题。竞争对手想打压拼多多，现在都不知道怎么出拳。
Netizen K: Recently, I have been looking at information and the app of Pinduoduo, purchased several items on it, and have been thinking about Pinduoduo. Here are some personal opinions, which may not be correct. 1. Under the influence of Mr. Duan, Huang Zheng has gradually established a humble corporate culture, consumer orientation, and differentiated competition. 2. A large industry with continuous growth (the social consumer goods retail industry) and a sub-industry with continuous growth (the online retail industry). The number of online shoppers is also continuously increasing. 3. The current core users are downgraded Internet consumers who were rarely reached before (they do not recognize many brands and have not yet reached the stage where they rely on brands to identify products), and an un-cultivated differentiated industry. 4. Shopping APP without searching, machine algorithm push, gamification, fun, and future empowerment of the supply chain. 5. Details such as no shopping cart and password-free payment are well done, and the conversion rate is very high. 6. The Pinduoduo team is excellent in solving problems during development, including fake and inferior products. Competitors don't know how to throw a punch against Pinduoduo now.
当然，罗马不是一天建成的。黄峥说过“我想建一座迪士尼，目前只有两个旋转木马”“低价是阶段性获取用户的手段之一”（目前是IPO公司上市静默期，我也少说一点比较好）
Of course, Rome was not built in a day. Huang Zheng once said, "I want to build a Disneyland, but now there are only two carousels." "Low prices are one of the means to obtain users in stages" (currently the IPO company is in the quiet period before listing, so I should say less).
段永平：我还没用过拼多多但我对黄峥有很高的信任度！给他10年时间，大家会看到他们厉害的地方的。拼多多才成立不到三年，有些毛病很正常。我觉得10年后他们会非常厉害，如果能够有10年的话。（2018－07－22）
Duan Yongping: I haven't used Pinduoduo yet, but I have high trust in Huang Zheng! Give him 10 years, and everyone will see how powerful they are. It's normal for Pinduoduo to have some problems since it has only been established for less than three years. I think they will be very powerful in 10 years if they can have 10 years. (2018-07-22)
段永平：看看黄峥讲的东西，去想想10年后的拼多多吧。（2018－07－26）
Duan Yongping: Look at what Huang Zheng said and think about Pinduoduo in 10 years. (2018-07-26)
03. I think Pinduoduo is a bit like an online Costco.
段永平：这确实是拼多多想做到的事情（2018－07－28）
Duan Yongping: This is indeed what Pinduoduo wants to achieve (2018-07-28).
网友：拼多多的商业模式是什么呢，肯定不是大家聚在一起搞批发吧。
Netizen: What is the business model of Pinduoduo? It must not be about everyone gathering together for wholesale, right?
段永平：Costco+Disney，这个定义有点意思，也很难找到更好的定义了。
Duan Yongping: Costco+Disney, this definition is quite interesting, and it's hard to find a better definition.
04. 网友：拼多多用一段时间了，体验还不错，确实有的东西比较次，但价格真便宜，渠道上他们一定做了优化。就看你买什么东西了，确实就像黄峥说的，不要光听什么消费升级的概念，有的东西就不用升级呀，比如厨房里的用纸。总之：拼多多好不好，谁用谁知道。
04. Netizen: I've been using Pinduoduo for a while, and the experience is not bad. Some things are indeed of lower quality, but the prices are really cheap. They must have optimized their channels. It depends on what you buy, indeed as Huang Zheng said, don't just listen to the concept of consumption upgrade, some things don't need to be upgraded, such as kitchen paper. In short: whether Pinduoduo is good or not, only those who use it know.
段永平：质量的定义其实是一致性。（2018－07－27）
Duan Yongping: The definition of quality is actually consistency (2018-07-27).
05. 网友：廉价、降级这类的我一点都不介意，关心的是拼多多“长期”“纵容”甚至“支持”山寨，朋友圈里和群里都在传“以下很多品牌恭祝拼多多上市：小米新品、松下新品、老于妈、雷碧、康帅傅、七匹狠、必相印……”，加上创维公司的维权声明，个个义愤填膺、讽刺鄙夷。今天我在拼多多的app上一个个搜索了，都没找到，反倒是在淘宝上看到不少“七匹狠”。这样就放心了。可惜一只没开美股账户啊。
05. Netizen: I don't mind things being cheap or downgraded at all. What concerns me is that Pinduoduo "long-term" "condones" or even "supports" shanzhai (counterfeit goods). Many brands are rumored to congratulate Pinduoduo on its listing: new products from Xiaomii, Panasonik, Old mother, Sprit, Kangshuai Fu, Seven Wolve, Bi Xiangyin... Plus the declaration of rights protection from Skyworth, everyone is indignant and sarcastic. Today I searched for each of them on Pinduoduo's app, but couldn't find them, but I found quite a few "Seven Wolve" on Taobao. That's reassuring. It's a pity that I don't have a U.S. stock account.
网友：拼多多动了很多竞争对手的奶酪，现在各种造谣恐吓的软文出了不少。
Netizen: Pinduoduo has touched the cheese of many competitors, and now there are many soft articles spreading rumors and threats.
段永平：上市就是为了被监督，现在监督来了，虽然不一定是预期的形式，但长远来说，对拼多多的改进是非常有好处的。希望拼多多能以开放的心态接受哈。亡羊补牢，会有机会的。（2018－07－30）
Duan Yongping: Being listed is for supervision. Now the supervision has come, although it may not be in the expected form, in the long run, it is very beneficial for Pinduoduo's improvement. I hope Pinduoduo can accept it with an open attitude. It's never too late to mend, and there will be opportunities (2018-07-30).
06. 网友：在看了非常多的有关拼多多、黄峥的资料后，昨天买入了拼多多的股票，能和段总成为同一家的股东，开心。
06. Netizen: After reading a lot of information about Pinduoduo and Huang Zheng, I bought some Pinduoduo stocks yesterday. It feels great to become a shareholder with Mr. Duan，I'm so happy.
段永平：我今天（7. 28）也买了些拼多多。虽然我已经有不少了，而且价格便宜很多，但我还是想再多买些。我已经好些年没有买公司的欲望了，但我觉得有机会的话，我会多买些拼多多。我相信企业文化的力量！拼多多股票10年内是我不会考虑卖的，但有机会我会考虑买。（2018－07－28）
Duan Yongping: I also bought some Pinduoduo today (7.28). Although I already have quite a few, and the price is much cheaper, I still want to buy more. I haven't had the desire to buy company stocks for many years, but if there is an opportunity, I will buy more Pinduoduo. I believe in the power of corporate culture! I won't consider selling Pinduoduo stocks in the next 10 years, but I will consider buying if there is an opportunity (2018-07-28).
07. 网友：现在买拼多多会不会有点当年买网易的感觉。我感觉有些企业所处的环境变化快，从生意模式上的确不好把握。但是坚持做对的事情，加上持之以恒把事情做对的努力，胜出的概率会大很多。
07. Netizen: Buying Pinduoduo now feels a bit like buying NetEase back then. I feel that some companies are in a rapidly changing environment, and it's really difficult to grasp from a business model perspective. But persisting in doing the right thing, coupled with persistent efforts to do things right, increases the probability of winning.
段永平：我的说法不够成投资建议哈。目前拼多多受到的攻击非常猛烈，没人知道会是什么影响，虽然我不认为会对业务造成影响，我看到很多文章都像是有组织写的，大家对比一下那些写我的文章，基本都是拼的感觉就明白我的意思了，如果拼多多能渡过他的难关的话，未来拼多多这个流量，怎么着一年200－300亿（人民币）的利润似乎不应该是问题吧？至于应该什么价买这家公司，不是我可以回答得了的。（2018－07－31）
Duan Yongping: My statement is not enough to be considered as investment advice. Currently, Pinduoduo is under very fierce attack, and no one knows what the impact will be. Although I don't think it will affect the business, I see many articles that seem to be organized, compare those articles written about me, and you'll understand my meaning. If Pinduoduo can overcome these difficulties, it seems that making 20-30 billion RMB in profit from its traffic in a year should not be a problem, right? As for what price to buy this company, it's not something I can answer (2018-07-31).
08. 网友：您觉得现在拼多多的股价相对于公司价值有多便宜？机会成本而言，现在的拼多多股票跟苹果股票相比，是不是更有吸引力一些？
08. Netizen: How cheap do you think the current stock price of Pinduoduo is relatively to the company's value? In terms of opportunity cost, is Pinduoduo's stock more attractive than Apple's stock?
段永平：从10年的角度看，拼多多显然机会大些但风险也大些哈。绝对不够成投资建议。我认为某一天跌破发行价是很有可能的，10年后大家觉得今天这个价钱真便宜也是大概率事件。所以我在等发行了再说，哈哈。（2018－07－31）
Duan Yongping: From a 10-year perspective, it's clear that Pinduoduo has more opportunities but also more risks. This is definitely not an investment recommendation. I believe it is very possible for the stock to fall below the IPO price someday, and it's highly probable that people will consider today's price as cheap in 10 years. So, I'll wait until after the IPO before making any decisions, haha. (2018-07-31)
09. 网友：研究了一段时间。还是没搞明白拼多多和阿里京东等传统电商比竞争优势在哪，能否指点迷津？
09. Netizen: I've been studying for a while. I still don't understand what advantages Pinduoduo has over traditional e-commerce players like Alibaba and JD.com. Can you give me some guidance?
段永平：再过几年就明白了。（2018－08－03）
Duan Yongping: You'll understand in a few years. (2018-08-03)
10. 网友：黄峥说拼多多是撞上了好运。
10. Netizen: Huang Zheng said that Pinduoduo had some good luck.
段永平：黄峥是实在人，拼多多起来确实有运气成分，但绝对不只是运气哈。（2018－09）
Duan Yongping: Huang Zheng is a practical person. It's true that Pinduoduo had some luck, but it's definitely not just luck. (2018-09)
11. 网友：最近对拼多多一直在关注，也下载了拼多多的App，做了些用户体验，自己有一些粗浅的看法，还望段大哥和诸位球友指正。拼多多现在主要是通过拼团+社交+营销来吸引买家，未来想做到Costco+Disney（好事多+迪士尼），做到C2M。那它的生意模式有多大的护城河呢？拼团现在巴巴和京东已经开始模仿，并实施了，但基于微信的社交电商，巴巴和京东应该学不了。而未来，Costco+Disney，C2M，大家都可以学，但谁做得更好，就要看企业文化和企业领导人了。黄峥是段大哥的徒弟，坚守本分和以消费者为导向的经营理念。我看好。学段大哥，我对拼多多未来的股价也做了个粗略的毛估估。拼多多现在有3.44亿活跃买家，未来十年，到5亿活跃买家应该问题不大。拼多多现在年GMV是2600亿，未来十年到2万亿应该是大概事件。如果给个2%货币化率，那么营收是400亿。给个50%的成本支出，那么净利润是200亿（相当于从每人身上一年挣40人民币），约等于30亿美元。现在拼多多有11亿总股数，阿里巴巴的P/E=47，亚马逊的P/E=384，京东P/E=271。如果我们取保守P/E=20，那么拼多多未来的股价=（$30/11)*20=$55。
11. Netizen: I've been paying close attention to Pinduoduo lately and I've downloaded their app and tried it out. I have some thoughts and would appreciate it if Mr. Duan and fellow friends could correct me. Pinduoduo mainly attracts buyers through group buying, social interactions, and marketing. In the future, they want to achieve the level of Costco+Disney, and do C2M. How big is their moat in this business model? Group buying is now being copied by Alibaba and JD.com, but they can't copy the WeChat-based social e-commerce aspect. However, in the future, Costco+Disney and C2M can be learned by everyone, but who can do it better depends on corporate culture and leadership. Huang Zheng is Mr. Duan's disciple and adheres to a consumer-centric business philosophy. I'm optimistic about Pinduoduo. Learning from Mr. Duan, I've made a rough estimate of Pinduoduo's future stock price. Pinduoduo now has 344 million active buyers, and reaching 500 million active buyers in the next ten years shouldn't be a problem. Pinduoduo now has an annual GMV of 260 billion yuan, which should reach 2 trillion yuan in the next decade. If we assume a 2% monetization rate, the revenue would be 40 billion yuan. Assuming a 50% cost expense, the net profit would be 20 billion yuan (equivalent to earning 40 yuan per person per year), or about 3 billion US dollars. Pinduoduo currently has 1.1 billion total shares. Alibaba's P/E ratio is 47, Amazon's P/E ratio is 384, and JD.com's P/E ratio is 271. If we assume a conservative P/E ratio of 20, then Pinduoduo's future stock price would be ($30/11)*20=$55.
段永平：你厉害，但不是学我的。我不是这么算的，这种情况我根本就不会算！目前这种情况，根本还无从算起。唯一我觉得可以做风投的理由就是，在目前这种成长情况下，我相信他们的好文化最终会有不错的概率会带来好结果。（2018－08－31）
Duan Yongping: You're good, but you didn't learn this from me. I don't even calculate in this situation! Currently, there's no way to calculate. The only reason I think it's worth investing in is that, given their current growth trajectory, I believe their good culture will eventually have a good chance of producing good results. (2018-08-31)
网友：现在感觉段师兄当年投网易也是风投了一把吗？
Netizen: Did Mr. Duan invest in NetEase also as a venture capitalist?
段永平：网易不同，我非常懂游戏，当时非常确定他们将来会赚很多钱，不知道的只是到底能赚多少。对拼多多来说我目前的水平依然不知道他们未来能不能赚到符合目前市值的利润。三年前我投拼多多时就不知道最终他们能不能赚钱，现在看了一下数据后依然还是不知道，但显然他们的影响力已经大了非常非常多了。我现在觉得他们能做出来的机会比三年前大了许多。
Duan Yongping: NetEase is different. I understand games very well, and at that time, I was very confident that they would make a lot of money in the future. The only thing I didn't know was how much. As for Pinduoduo, at my current level, I still don't know if they can earn profits that justify their current market value. Three years ago, when I invested in Pinduoduo, I didn't know if they could eventually make money. After looking at the data now, I still don't know, but it's clear that their influence has grown tremendously. I now believe that they have a much greater chance of success compared to three years ago.
网友O：风投
Netizen: Venture capital?
段永平：这里风投的意思是：这么一帮人，这样一种文化，这样一个生意模式，如果一直这么发展下去，10年后跟淘宝平分天下还是有可能的吧？如果他们做到了，股东回报自然高。风险的部分在哪里呢？我要知道就不是风投了。（2018－09－02）
Duan Yongping: By venture capital, I mean, with this group of people, this kind of culture, and this kind of business model, if they keep developing like this, it's possible that they could share the e-commerce market with Taobao in 10 years, right? If they achieve this, the shareholder return will naturally be high. Where are the risks? If I knew, it wouldn't be venture capital. (2018-09-02)
网友：京东没有赚到钱，亚马逊没有赚到钱，淘宝赚到钱了，拼多多？
Netizen: JD.com hasn't made any money, Amazon hasn't made any money, but Taobao has. What about Pinduoduo?
段永平：从财报看，拼多多要赚钱似乎不难，只是没必要急着赚钱而已吧？
Duan Yongping: From the financial reports, it doesn't seem difficult for Pinduoduo to make money, they just don't need to rush it. (2018-09)
网友B：段大哥曾经预测拼多多未来每年可以挣200－300亿人民币。以拼多多的团队，企业文化，和生意模式，我相信这一目标是水到渠成的事。
Netizen B: Mr. Duan once predicted that Pinduoduo could earn 20-30 billion yuan a year in the future. With Pinduoduo's team, corporate culture, and business model, I believe this goal is very achievable.
段永平：是猜测不是预测，把握性不一样。
Duan Yongping: It's a guess, not a prediction. The degree of certainty is different.
网友B：有些生意可以想象出它怎么赚钱，比如“拼多多”：有些生意很难想象出来它怎么能挣钱，比如“共享单车”。段总的“猜”，是在“懂”的前提下“猜”。
Netizen B: Some businesses you can imagine how they will make money, like "Pinduoduo". Some businesses are hard to imagine how they can earn money, like "shared bicycles". Mr. Duan's "guess" is "guessing" based on "understanding".
段永平：我懂得不多，但知道流量经常是很值钱的。他们的流量很大，而且都来源于看得见的生意，所以变现不是问题。我相信他们本分的文化会让他们找到非急功近利的办法的。（2018－09－05)
Duan Yongping: I don't understand much, but I know that traffic is often very valuable. They have a lot of traffic, and it all comes from visible business, so monetization isn't a problem. I believe their culture will help them find a non-hasty way. (2018-09-05)
ps：“我感觉有些企业所处的环境变化快，从生意模式上的确不好把握。但是坚持做对的事情，加上持之以恒把事情做对的努力，胜出的概率会大很多。”
“唯一我觉得可以做风投的理由就是，在目前这种成长情况下，我相信他们的好文化最终会有不错的概率会带来好结果。”