21. 淘宝模式和京东模式
21. Taobao Model and JD.com Model
01. 网友：您觉得中国来说，未来是京东这种B2C强势，还是淘宝强势？我估计又是个美国的翻版？
01. Netizen: Do you think in China's future, will B2C like JD.com be more powerful? Or will Taobao be more powerful? I guess it's a copy of the U.S.?
段永平：有可比性吗？（2010－09－16）
Duan Yongping: Can they really be compared? (2010-09-16)
网友：段总有空能否讲讲淘宝模式和京东模式您的看法？
Netizen: Mr. Duan, could you share your thoughts on the Taobao model and JD.com model?
段永平：京东的模式好像不复杂，就是砸钱——融资——砸钱的过程。淘宝说不定有一天会成为中国最大的广告公司。（2010－07－04）
Duan Yongping: JD.com's model seems simple, just the process of spending money - financing - spending money. Maybe one day Taobao will become China's largest advertising company. (2010-07-04)
网友：请问大道对广告市场怎么看？
Netizen: May I ask for Dadao's view on the advertising market?
段永平：广告市场很大，和经济总量几乎是线性相关的。（2019－04－29）
Duan Yongping: The advertising market is huge and almost linearly related to the total economic output. (2019-04-29)
02. 网友：据了解，2010年京东商城营业额预计108亿元，现已完成超过80亿元。分析称开放平台可为其带来较高毛利率，为上市做准备。
02. Netizen: It is understood that in 2010, JD.com's revenue is expected to reach 10.8 billion yuan, and it has already completed over 8 billion yuan. Analysts believe that an open platform can bring high gross margins and prepare for listing.
段永平：不赚钱的生意多少经营额都是没有用的。（2010－09－16）
Duan Yongping: Business without profit is useless no matter how much revenue there is. (2010-09-16)
03. 网友：京东目前没有办法，互联网企业总是这样，先得上量突破平衡点，突破了可能就是一马平川。淘宝如果是C2C模式，淘宝盈利大头应该是广告。但现在的趋势已经出来，就是C2C后端的C数量会逐渐减少，很少的大C取代大量的小C，那么淘宝未来不是广告，而是靠“抽水”提成。
03. Netizen: JD.com currently has no way out. Internet companies are always like this, first reaching a breakthrough point in traffic, and after that, everything becomes smooth sailing. If Taobao operates under C2C mode, the majority of its profits should come from advertising. But now, the trend has emerged that the number of C's in the C2C backend will gradually decrease, with a few large C's replacing many small C's. So Taobao's future lies not in advertising, but in commission fees.
段永平：建不起“护城河”的话，砸多少钱都是没用的。（2010－07－07）
Duan Yongping: If you can't build a "moat", no matter how much money you spend, it will be useless. (2010-07-07)
04. 引用：刘东强：新进2.5万新员工 最大挑战来自团队
04. Quote: Liu Dongqiang: Hiring 25,000 New Employees JD.com's Biggest Challenge Comes from the Team
2012年京东商城最大的挑战仍然来自团队本身。刘东强表示，京东商城高管近日用五天时间制定了明年的公司战略，但总体来看2012年京东商城最大的挑战还是来自团队，“特别是如何迎接即将加入京东的25000多名新同事……
In 2012, JD.com's biggest challenge still came from the team itself. Liu Dongqiang said that JD.com's executives spent five days recently formulating the company's strategy for the next year, but overall, the biggest challenge in 2012 for JD.com still came from the team, "especially how to welcome over 25,000 new colleagues who will soon join JD.com...
段永平：这么低的margin和这么点的营业额要用这么多人啊，这个生意模式看起来不是很美妙。（2011－12－28）
Duan Yongping: With such low margins and such a small turnover, why do they need so many people? This business model doesn't seem very wonderful. (2011-12-28)
网友W：2013年完不成的，光物流就至少得5年以上，何况互联网行业必须时时更新技术。
Netizen W: It won't be completed by 2013, logistics alone will take at least five years, not to mention the fact that the internet industry must constantly update its technology.
段永平：物流大概要靠大环境了，自己搞物流费力不讨好。京东那个搞法长期是要吃苦头的。（2011－09－27）
Duan Yongping: Logistics will largely depend on the overall environment, it's not worth the effort to handle logistics by themselves. JD.com's approach will bring long-term difficulties. (2011-09-27)
段永平：我觉得如果他们真的需要增加那么多员工，为什么不分3年而非要在一年里完成呢？除非他们真是超人，不然这种做法后患比较大。（2011－12－30）
Duan Yongping: If they really need to increase their staff by so much, why not spread it out over three years instead of trying to complete it within one year? Unless they are superhuman, this method will have significant drawbacks. (2011-12-30)
网友J：原本以为中国靠这种自杀的方法做生意的只有马云一个人，没想到还有更狠的，从来没本事赚过什么钱！愚蠢的是那些PE们。
Netizen J: I used to think that only Jack Ma relied on this suicidal method to do business in China, but it turns out there are even more ruthless ones. They've never been able to make any money! The foolish ones are the PEs (private equity firms).
段永平：马云的生意模式很好啊。（2011－12－28）
Duan Yongping: Jack Ma's business model is quite good. (2011-12-28)
网友X：看过刘东强优米网采访，感觉人很踏实，他说京东从不会亏本卖货（除了促销，总体相信）：注重用户体验（自己的配送系统在建，将来会剥离，我觉得中国最大的几个物流公司里会有京东）我遇到过在京东花了近十万的人，非常信赖京东，能留住顾客；他们的系统是自己研发的，成本控制高效，商品价格都是信息系统自动控制的。非常欣赏他们管培生活动，刘东强说他们如果不为将来投资现在就可以赚钱了，一直很看好京东，除了他们估价太高。看了这次新进2.5万员工（物流？）有点担心他们现金流及人员管理能否跟上，步子有点迈得太大了。京东如果能活下来（我很相信），我觉得会超越淘宝。（五到十年来看）
Netizen X: I watched Liu Dongqiang's interview with Youmi.com and felt that he is a down-to-earth person. He said that JD.com never sells products at a loss (except for promotions, overall belief): they focus on user experience (their own delivery system is being built and will be separated; I think it will be included in one of China's largest logistics companies). I've encountered people who have spent nearly 100,000 yuan on JD.com and they trust JD.com very much, which helps retain customers. Their system is self-developed, cost-effective, and product prices are controlled automatically by the information system. I really appreciate their management trainee program. Liu Dongqiang said that if they don't invest for the future, they can make money now. I've always had high hopes for JD.com, except that their valuation is too high. Seeing that they are hiring 25,000 new employees (logistics?), I'm a bit worried about if their cash flow and personnel management can keep up; they are moving too fast. If JD.com can survive (which I strongly believe), I think it will surpass Taobao. (Looking at the next five to ten years)
段永平：除了促销是什么意思？（2011－12－29）
Duan Yongping: What do you mean by "except for promotions"? (2011-12-29)
网友X：我说的是指类似于超市里的每天一款特价商品，京东有时会搞限时抢购。（就几款非大面积的那种）
Netizen X: I mean things like daily special offers, and sometimes JD.com has limited-time flash sales. (Just a few non-widespread items)
段永平：不好的生意模式也是有机会在一段时间里赚钱的，但赚起来累，效率差，持久性不好。需要用很多人（相对营业额和利润而言）是不好的模式的一个特征。另外短期内增加很多人往往也是很危险的（比如一年内在一万多人的基础上增加两万多人），当然有有些公司可能会是例外，虽然我还没见过例外。（2011－12－29）
Duan Yongping: Even a bad business model can make money for a period of time, but it's tiring, inefficient, and lacks sustainability. Needing a lot of people (relative to turnover and profit) is a characteristic of a bad business model. Additionally, rapidly increasing the number of people in the short term is often dangerous (e.g., adding over 20,000 people within one year on top of the existing 10,000+ employees). Of course, there might be some exceptions, although I haven't seen any yet. (2011-12-29)
网友F：那如果对比亚马逊，沃尔玛的表现呢？大道觉得他们的模式好吗？
Netizen F: How about comparing with Amazon and Walmart? What do you think of their models?
段永平：你对比一下双方的人数、营业额，利润等指标看看，我没认真研究过。印象中AMZN的模式不错,但WMT恐怕很难再有更大作为了。（2011－12－29）
Duan Yongping: Compare the number of employees, turnover, profit, and other indicators between the two sides, I haven't studied them carefully. I have the impression that AMZN's model is good, but WMT probably won't achieve much more. (2011-12-29)
网友F：总的来说，淘宝模式本质上无法把控产品品质和一系列服务等。这是硬伤，从消费层面，京东是胜出的。
Netizen F: In general, Taobao's model fundamentally can't control product quality and a series of services. That's a weakness. From the consumer's perspective, JD.com comes out on top.
段永平：如果两者规模相当的话，你可能会得到不同的结论（2011－12－19）
Duan Yongping: If the scale of the two is similar, you might come to different conclusions. (2011-12-19)
网友：也得看跟谁比吧。没记错的话2010年京东的人均销售额大概是100万，国美不到20万，这么看效率还可以。
Netizen: It also depends on who you compare it with. If I remember correctly, in 2010, JD.com's per capita sales were around 1 million yuan, while GOME was less than 200,000 yuan. Efficiency seems acceptable from this perspective.
网友：已经证伪了，之前的统计是搞错了国美的员工数，估计把临时工、导购之类的也算进去了，人均实际销售额应该在100万左右。
Netizen: That has been proven false. The previous statistics were incorrect as they included temporary workers and salespeople. The actual per capita sales should be around 1 million yuan.
段永平：逻辑上讲，两个火鸡加起来也不会变成老鹰的。我这里讲的实际上和京东无关，只是就商业模式说点看法而已，5年以后大家就知道对错了。（2011－12－30）
Duan Yongping: Logically speaking, adding up two turkeys won't turn them into an eagle. What I'm talking about here is not specifically related to JD.com. It's just my opinion on business models. In five years, everyone will know who was right and wrong. (2011-12-30)
05. 网友：阿里最具前景的业务淘宝，其互联网生意模式并不具有护城河。成功之道是解决了网络支付的信用。但是它没有很好地解决商品信誉和服务信誉。我每个月都会上淘宝买两三样东西，但是最近发生一些令人不愉快的事情，比如我通过旺旺和商家聊天，最后决定不买了，对方会恢复“滚”。这就是我对其远景的担忧。
05. Netizen: Taobao, Alibaba's most promising business, does not have a moat in its internet business model. The key to its success is solving the credit problem in online payments. However, it has not solved the credibility of goods and services. I buy two or three things on Taobao every month, but recently some unpleasant things happened, such as chatting with the seller through Wangwang and deciding not to buy it in the end, and the seller responding with "get lost." This is my concern for its future.
段永平：他那个护城河很宽啊，不然你可以想象一下和他做同样的生意会是 什么感觉就明白了。貌似你还需要进一步搞懂“护城河”的意思。哪里都有很烂的买家和卖家，你碰上个也很正常，但这种不好的卖家未来是没法在淘宝混下去的，这也是淘宝的“护城河”的一部分。（2010－10－11）
Duan Yongping: Its moat is quite wide, otherwise you can imagine how it would feel to do the same business with it. You seem to need to further understand the meaning of "moat." There are bad buyers and sellers everywhere, and it is normal to encounter them, but these bad sellers cannot survive on Taobao in the future, which is also part of Taobao's "moat." (2010-10-11)
网友J：我没有质疑阿里巴巴和淘宝的生意，我只是认为马云不是一个投资人的好朋友，特别是二级市场。不尊重股东的人，也得不到股东的尊重！我比较敬重的生意模式是附加值，好比苹果。本人在中国香港承销过一家企业上市，叫谭木匠，我也很敬重。
Netizen J: I did not question Alibaba and Taobao's business, I just think that Jack Ma is not a good friend for investors, especially in the secondary market. People who do not respect shareholders will not get their respect! The business model I respect more is added value, like Apple. I underwrote an enterprise listing in Hong Kong, called Carpenter Tan, and I also respect it.
段永平：我倒是见到许多许多“股东第一”的公司，由于不停地为了取悦“华尔街”而采取短期行为，最后业绩差导致股东利益都没有了。马云这种实际上是最尊重股东利益的那一类了。我个人投资时比较喜欢这类“股东第3”的公司，最害怕那种“股东第一”的公司。（2012－01－02）
Duan Yongping: I have seen many companies that claim "shareholders first." Due to their short-term behavior to please "Wall Street," their poor performance eventually leads to the loss of shareholder interests. Jack Ma is actually one of the most respectful of shareholder interests. When I personally invest, I prefer this type of "shareholders come third" company, and I am most afraid of the "shareholders first" type of company. (2012-01-02)
06. 网友：京东改用JD.com为域名，并用“金属狗”为吉祥物，淘宝为“天猫”，看来“猫狗大战第三部”开始了。
06. Netizen: JD.com changed its domain name to JD.com and used "Metal Dog" as its mascot. Taobao is "Tmall." It seems that the "cat and dog war part 3" has begun.
段永平：万亿级和百亿级之间的竞争一般不叫大战吧？（2013－04－01）
Duan Yongping: Competition between trillion-level and billion-level companies is generally not called a war, right? (2013-04-01)
07. 网友：段总能不能说说为什么不看好京东？
07. Netizen: Can Mr. Duan explain why you don't think highly of JD.com?
段永平：我没说不看好，只是说不了解而已。不过，作为行业中人，确实也没有想出来能特别看好的理由。（2010－09－16）
Duan Yongping: I didn't say I don't think highly of it, I just don't know much about it. However, as an industry insider, I really can't come up with a reason to be particularly optimistic about it. (2010-09-16)
网友：马云讲京东注定悲剧，对此我觉得有些懂，觉得京东的模式有问题，也觉得阿里好，但又讲不清楚到底好在什么地方，不知道段哥如何看？
Netizen: Jack Ma said that JD.com is destined to be a tragedy. I think I understand it to some extent, I think JD.com's model has problems, and I also think Alibaba is good, but I can't explain where it is good. How does Mr. Duan see it?
段永平：马云说得很清楚了，只不过不应该在澡堂子外面说而已，你仔细看看，慢慢琢磨吧。（2015－01－09）
Duan Yongping: Jack Ma said it very clearly, but he shouldn't have said it outside the bathhouse. You should take a closer look and slowly figure it out. (2015-01-09)
ps：“不好的生意模式也是有机会在一段时间里赚钱的，但赚起来累，效率差，持久性不好。需要用很多人（相对营业额和利润而言）是不好的模式的一个特征。”