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回复@EvanStone: thx for sharing with us!//@EvanStone:回复@是我是风:PBF is basically using Valero's playbook to grow by purchasing distressed assets. Since it initiated this strategy in 1997, It took almost a decade for the thesis to work out before it was again crushed by external forces. But over the 20 year horizon -- till about now -- shareholder capital has been compounded at a respectable rate of ~13.5% annually.Valero started to acquire distressed refining assets in 1997. In about 2004, the stock finally broke out as the assets started to produce up to their potentials. The stock peaked at around $77 in 2007, but the fell to the $15-20 range due to a) broader market selling; b) EPA's Tier II-III gasoline requirements which required many years of excess capital spending to restore refining margins; c) EPA's RFS-2 for biofuel blending credits. Profits reached their nadir in 2010, but have sharply recovered since. Even so, the stock has yet to achieve its 2007 high.In a nutshell, that is what PBF is up against. It is a long, long-term thesis to unlock the value of neglected refining assets and integrate them competitively into a larger chain. While margin of safety is provided by low valuation for critical assets, there are a lot of tumblers which need to line up before margins stack up versus peers'. There also the distinct possibility that we're seeing peak gasoline demand in the US.
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2017-05-31 11:51
$PBF Energy(PBF)$ 就一个问题,你还愿意持有等待吗?两个月后来看大家答案