回复@精神科王大爷: 这么多字我居然信了//@精神科王大爷:回复@网格跑步修身心:问了 AI, 说今年大盘会有16%涨幅.
Q: Make a prediction of when the Chinese stock market will be back above 3000.
A: Predicting the future of the stock market is not an easy task, as there are many factors and uncertainties involved. However, based on some web search results, I can try to give you a rough estimate based on some assumptions and projections.
网页链接{According to Goldman Sachs, the CSI 300 index, which tracks the largest stocks on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, is expected to rise 15% in 2024, underpinned by an estimated earnings growth of about 10% and moderate valuation gains}1. 网页链接{The CSI 300 index closed at 3,849 on December 31, 2023}2, so a 15% increase would imply a level of 4,427 by the end of 2024.
网页链接{However, this projection may not be accurate, as there are many risks and challenges facing the Chinese economy and stock market, such as the weak economic recovery, the trade tensions with Europe, the financial risks from shadow banking, the policy uncertainty, and the property market collapse}134. Therefore, the actual performance of the CSI 300 index may deviate significantly from the forecast.
网页链接{If we assume a more conservative scenario, where the CSI 300 index only rises 6% in 2024, as suggested by Morgan Stanley}4, then the level by the end of 2024 would be 4,080. This would still be above 3,000, but not by much.
网页链接{Alternatively, if we assume a more optimistic scenario, where the CSI 300 index rises 16% in 2024, as suggested by Yicai Global}5, then the level by the end of 2024 would be 4,464. 网页链接{This would be a substantial increase from the current level, but still below the historical peak of 5,353 reached in June 2015}2.
Therefore, based on these scenarios, I would estimate that the Chinese stock market will be back above 3,000 in 2024, but the exact timing and magnitude of the rise will depend on various factors and events that are hard to predict. Please note that this is not a professional or reliable advice, and you should do your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions. 😊
1网页链接{: China stocks 2024: Goldman Sachs sees rebalancing and policy support}2网页链接{: CSI 300 Index (000300.SS) - Yahoo Finance}3网页链接{: China stock market outlook 2024: is the dragon stirring again?}4网页链接{: Chinese stocks to rise 6-8% in next 12 months on policy pivot, Morgan Stanley says}5: Goldman Sachs Predicts China’s Core Stock Indexes to Pop 12-16% in 2024