After adjusting his position before the S&P 500 fell by more than 30%, his Satori Fund finished the first quarter in the green. But speaking to Yahoo Finance Wednesday, Niles warned that the brief respite from selling to end March was more likely due to pension fund rebalancing than it was due to a true, bonafide bottom and he projected up to another potential 30% drop from March’s end point.

在标准普尔500指数下跌超过30% 之前调整了头寸后，他的 Satori 基金第一季度表现良好。 但在周三接受雅虎财经采访时，奈尔斯警告说，从3月底卖出的短暂喘息，更有可能是由于养老基金的再平衡，而不是真正的、诚实的底部，他预计从3月底可能还会有30% 的跌幅。

“If you go back and look at history, there are nine times that the market has sold off about 30% or so since the 1920s, so it’s pretty normal,” he said. “You get one of these every 10 years or so and if you look at every one of them, you always get these bear market rallies.”

“如果你回顾一下历史，自20世纪20年代以来，市场已经抛售了9次左右，所以这很正常，”他说。 “你每10年左右就会看到一个这样的数据，如果你仔细观察每一个数据，你总会看到熊市反弹。”

Pointing to the most salient example in the Great Depression, Niles highlights the average gain over those so-called bear market rallies totaled 24%, compared to the drops that averaged 33% on what ended up being an eventual 86% top-to-bottom collapse.

奈尔斯指出了大萧条时期最突出的一个例子，他强调指出，在所谓的熊市反弹期间，股市平均上涨了24% ，而在最终86% 的自上而下的崩盘中，股市平均下跌了33% 。